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Thursday, August 14

14th Aug - The Horror of Euro

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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With No Growth, Do Europe’s Governments Scrimp or Spend? WSJ
Will this lead to more government belt tightening? Or will policy makers decide that their electors just won’t stand the pain?

Why UK Wages May be About to Take OffWSJ
At the center of the Bank of England’s (BoE) stance on monetary policy there is the issue of pay growth: as long as real wages growth remains low, the central bank signaled it will not advance its plans to raise interest rates in early 2015… But some indicators suggest real wages are set to grow soon.
ECB survey points to weaker inflation this year and nextReuters
Euro zone inflation will be weaker than previously expected this year and next, an updated survey for the European Central Bank indicated on Thursday, darkening the euro zone's economic outlook.

Draghi is “Waiting  for Godot”Historinhas
Policy is made for Germany, so it will come too late.

What should the European Central Bank actually do?Marginal Revolution
The policies that could work are unpopular.

ECB would, for now, prefer to do nothingFT
Officials believe measures unveiled in June will boost growth

The ECB is not doing its job. Again.Coppola Comment
The ECB is not doing its job. It is sitting on its hands and muttering about inflation while the Eurozone sinks further into depression. Even the mighty Germany's economy is shrinking, France is on the floor, Italy is in a slump and Spain's once-promising recovery looks set to be curtailed as consumer prices slide.

Germany is itself a victim of EMU’s austerity fanaticsThe Telegraph
The ECB is paralysed by politics. It cannot secure German assent for quantitative easing because Berlin/Buba are using stimulus as an instrument to enforce their reform dictates, and they are not yet satisfied that Italy is complying. Monetary policy has been contaminated.

Recap 2014-08-14 : BundsGlobal Macro Trading
Markets are pricing in BOTH of the following: ECB will miss its inflation target over the next 3 decades and EU Growth will likely be zero over the next 3 decades.

Monthly Bulletin, August 2014ECB
Statistics Pocket Book, August 2014ECB

German industry: Economic engine sputters but does not stallDB Research
Following the disappointing performance of German industry in Q2 2014, we have revised our production forecast for the year 2014 from +4% to +2.5%. Despite the current geopolitical risks we see no general change in the trend but rather a temporary dip. In the chemicals industry, mechanical engineering and the metal industry we have corrected our forecast downwards – in some cases markedly.

Negative German GDP Sends Bunds Under 1% For The First Time EverZH
First take on German GDPTradingFloor
The end of the Wirtschaftswunder?Merkelnomics

France warns on budget deficit target FT
France Risks EU Deficit Clash After Scrapping TargetsReuters
The French government abandoned its 2014 deficit targets after the economy unexpectedly failed to grow for a second straight quarter, risking a clash with European partners striving to meet their own fiscal goals.

Zero growth in FranceTradingFloor

The emergency exit's this way VladimirTradingFloor
President Putin searching for way out of Ukraine conflict after Malaysian jet tragedy * Putin hopes to snatch moral victory over West with peaceful resolution to conflict * One scenario points towards subjugation of Ukraine and decade-long Russia isolation

Rosneft Said to Ask State for Up to $42 Billion After SanctionsBB

Gazprom To Europe: We Own You (At Least Until 2016)ZH

Anders Aslund: What Putin can learn from Stalin’s winter warKyivpost

Italy: New political agenda and support from the ECBDanske Bank

Italy's Renzi must bring back the lira to end depressionThe Telegraph
It is an incontrovertible fact that Italy’s 14-year disaster coincides with EMU membership

Italy's Renzi, ECB's Draghi hold 'secret' meeting as economy slidesReuters

Chilling Echoes of Past, as Spain Cranks Up Political RepressionWolf Street

GDP stable in the euro area and up by 0.2% in the EU28 – Eurostat
Eurozone GDP Live – WSJ
Weak euro activity in Q2 – Danske Bank
Euro Zone Stagnates, but Euro Doesn't Sell-Off – Marc to Market
Euro zone economy grinds to halt even before Russia sanctions bite – Reuters
Unexpected drop in euro zone output clouds recovery hopes – Reuters
Euro zone recovery snuffed out – Reuters
Euro-Area Pickup Stalls as Big Economies Fail to Grow – BB
Euro Recovery Halts as Germany Shrinks, France Stagnates – BB
Eurozone stops, waits for ECB – FT
Eurozone economy fails to grow – FT

Bullard: Fed Getting Close to Policy GoalsWSJ
Falling unemployment and rising inflation are bringing the Fed closer to its goals more rapidly than policy makers had foreseen, and may justify raising interest rates as early as the end of the first quarter of 2015, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Thursday.

Chinese Credit PlummetsZH
As Chinese Credit Plummets US Stocks Soar On Hopes Of More PBOC Easing; But Is Conventional Wisdom Again Wrong?

China tipped to stimulate economy amid credit slumpTradingFloor
China’s plunge in credit expansion last month and unexpected slowdown in investment spending flashed warnings on growth that investors and economists bet will spur policy makers to expand stimulus.

China Driving Australian House Prices – ReportWSJ

Structural changes in the Australian economy pose a risk for AUDUSDTradingFloor
Aussie economy shifting from away from mining based * AUDUSD has risen from 87c to 95c despite RBA's best efforts * Interest rate differentials should drive AUDUSD

Japan heads for third quarter rebound but pressure on BOJ, Abe may build – Reuters
Japan's economy is expected to rebound this quarter from a steep contraction, but looming challenges will keep the pressure on the government and central bank for action to sustain growth.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hannon’s Take: BOE Sees Rate Staying Low for a Lot Longer * Fed Officials Suggest Limiting Banks’ Repo Exposure * Euro-Zone GDP Fails to Grow in Second Quarter * South Korea Cuts Interest Rates * BOE Says It Has Plan for Scotland Independence Vote

Daily MacroWSJ
Can the U.S. go it alone? All of a sudden, economic data from around the world is looking decidedly worrisome.

Eurozone growth falters as Germany loses momentumTradingFloor
Germany feels pinch from global export activity downturn * US growth rebounds while USD still undervalued * UK offers latest solid employment report

Great Graphic: Euro Remains Decoupled from Peripheral SpreadsMarc to Market

Työvoiman määräytyminen Suomen taloudessaRaha ja Talous

Teollisuuden liikevaihto maalis-toukok. reilun prosentin laskussa YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto kasvoi maalis-toukok. 1,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto pieneni kesäkuussa – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio heinäk. 0,8% – Tilastokeskus