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EUROPE
The ECB
must move to counteract market turbulences – FT
Draghi,
Juncker hold 'constructive talks' on European economy – Reuters
Market
is betting against Draghi’s efforts to fight deflation – Marketwatch
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Ukraine crisis update – Danske
Bank
Europe Is
Highly Dependent On Russian Gas – The
Big Picture
BANCO SANTO ESPIRITO
Europe's
bank rules fall at first hurdle: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard – TradingFloor
The rescue
of Portugal's Banco Santo Espirito to the tune of EUR 4.9 billion effectively
signals a fall at the first hurdle for the EU's tough rules on bank failures.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard warns that the subsequent impact on taxpayers
undermines every pledge made by European officials last year and is potentially
incendiary in a country where austerity fatigue is rife.
Fact:
Banco Espirito Santo gets a 4 billion euro recap – Bruegel
The plan
will also include a bail-in of junior debtholders and shareholders as well as a
restructuring of the bank, which will be split in two. BES is a test case for
the new European approach to the management of banking crises and will be an
important case study for policy makers.
MACRO NUMBERS
U.K. House Prices Rise at Fastest Pace
Since 2006 – BB
U.K.
Industrial Production Increases Less Than Forecast – BB
UK economic
growth slows in May-July: NIESR – Reuters
The Italian
Conundrum – WSJ
Italy’s
Second-Quarter GDP Declines, Showing Recession – BB
Italy's
economy returns to recession – Reuters
Italian
economy unexpectedly contracts in Q2 – TradingFloor
German
orders fall at their sharpest rate in almost three years in June – Reuters
UNITED STATES
Great
Graphic: US Corporate Taxes, Inversions and Surplus Savings – Marc
to Market
MACRO NUMBERS
June Trade
Deficit Smaller Than Expected, Ex-Petroleum Deficit Near Record – ZH
Trade
Deficit decreased in June to $41.5 Billion – Calculated
Risk
Trade Gap
Shrinks to Five-Month Low as U.S. Imports Drop – BB
U.S. trade
deficit narrows as petroleum imports fall - Reuters
U.S. Home
Prices Slowed Down in June – Calculated
Risk
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Douglas’ Take: BOE’s MPC Nearing Division
on Rate Path * Fed, FDIC Rebuke Bankruptcy Plans of 11 of Nation’s Biggest
Banks * Fed’s Fisher: FOMC Moving Toward Hawkish Stance * RBI’s Rajan Sees Risk
of Financial Markets Crash * Economists Prove The Success of ECB’s OMT
Daily
Macro – WSJ
It’s as if
markets can finally see the elephant in the room. Actually, there are three
elephants, and it’s now impossible to ignore them… no matter how benign the
data, we have crossed a threshold of economic recovery where the Fed is going
to have to, sooner or later, signal that it’s preparing to raise rates in the
New Year… the more China finds ways to disguise or artificially postpone the
slowdown that its economy must undergo while it shifts from over-leveraged
investment-led growth to consumer-led growth, the more painful the eventual
correction is going to be… geopolitical risk: Israel, Iraq and the big one,
Ukraine
Should
central bankers embrace the cult of the offensive? – FT
A new
article by Andrew Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, is a useful
reminder that the debate over how (or whether) central bankers should respond
to excessive risk-taking continues to heat up as the pain of the recession
gradually recedes in the US and UK.
Incredible
Shrinking Yields – Bespoke
Remember a
few years back when everyone used to look at the 1% yields on long-term
Japanese sovereign debt and write it off as a phenomenon specific to Japan?
Dollar
Flash Crashes – ZH
Appears led
by major JPY buying as someone just puked a huge carry trade
FINNISH
Espanjan pankkien ongelmalainat vähenemässä – mutta mitä
muhii pinnan alla – Tyhmyri
2015
BUDJETTIEHDOTUS
Rinne: "Painopiste kotimarkkinoiden kasvuun" – YLE
Valtion velka nousee sataan miljardiin – IS
Valtion velka nousee sataan miljardiin – IL
Rinne: Venäjän-tilanteen takia ei vielä lisää velkaa – TalSa
Kesk. Tiilikainen kritisoi Stubbin ja Rinteen ristiriitaisia
lausuntoja – Verkkouutiset
Slunga-Poutsalo: Suomi vakaasti Kreikan tiellä – PS
Stubb: Suomi ei voi irtautua Venäjä-pakotteista – TalSa
Pakotteet painavat Suomen syvemmälle suohon – TalSa
Jan Hurri: Analyysi EU:n ja Yhdysvaltain määräämät
talouspakotteet tuskin vaikuttavat Venäjään niin kuin on tarkoitus. Ennemmin ne
yllyttävät Venäjää koventamaan kuin pehmentämään otteitaan Ukrainassa. Sen
sijaan pakotteista koituu vakavaa vahinkoa taloudelle – ensin Venäjällä ja heti
perään Suomessa.
Telakkaratkaisussa järki voitti tunteet – TalSa
Risto Pennanen: Valtio on noussut Suomen merkittävimmäksi riskinottajaksi,
vaikka monet eturivin poliitikot olisivat toisin halunneet.
Kreikkalaiset euroalueen köyhimpiä, yli kolmannes
köyhyysrajan alapuolella – Verkkouutiset