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Thursday, August 28

28th Aug - Ukrainian crisis gets serious

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Hollande says euro overvalued, wants euro zone growth summitReuters
French President Francois Hollande said on Thursday low inflation in Europe and an overvalued euro threatened a protracted stagnation, and called for an early euro zone summit to coordinate pro-growth measures.

EU Amid Geopolitical Crisis Haggles Over Top Positions – BB
Periphery Runs C/A Surplus, but Problems Remain – Marc to Market
Italy’s Top Banks Seeking Up to $36 Billion From ECB – BB

The death of diplomacy in UkraineTradingFloor
Nadia Kazakova: Call it an incursion or call it an invasion, but the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine now seems to be a fact on the ground. Nato may baulk at calling it an invasion but Ukraine is becoming increasingly aware that diplomacy has not worked and is likely to have to tough it out alone.

Ukraine unrest sets agenda for commodities as Europe gas prices spikeTradingFloor
Ole Hansen: Uncertainty over developments in Eastern Ukraine casts shadow over market * Natural gas prices at UK trading hub rise to highest in three months * Brent price unmoved by crisis but WTI rises for third day in row

Putin profits politically from wars and western apologistsFT
The west is told what it wants to hear and turns a convenient blind eye, writes Susan Glasser

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demands a decisive responseFT
It is time for the United States and Europeans to act. This weekend’s European Council meeting in Brussels and next week’s Nato summit in Wales should be devoted to forging an effective, and lasting, response.

Putin Has Changed the Game in UkraineView / BB
The Western world will probably wiggle out of its moral dilemma by blaming Poroshenko for being deaf to Russia's legitimate concerns about preserving Ukraine's status as a buffer state. No matter how unfair that sounds, Ukraine is now faced with the necessity of making concessions to Putin

Satellite images: Russia has been invading Ukraine for at least a week – VOX
Ukraine Sees Russian Invasion as Rebel Assaults Intensify – BB
Ruble Slides to 6-Month Low as Micex Drops on Ukraine Incursion – BB
Russia Masterminding Ukraine Rebel Counteroffensive, NATO Says – BB
Russia will be the major loser in UkraineFT

ECB easing - will it work? # 4: Impact on growth and inflationDanske Bank

Ending the Euro Zone’s Endless Credit SqueezeWSJ
TLTRO might not help, but before it is tested and the ABS-prog is ready, “plan B” will not happen until end of 2014 or 2015.

Are markets front-running the ECB, or are things just bad?TradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: If the European Central Bank is about to save the euro area with quantitative easing and "whatever it takes", why have inflation expectations continued falling? I believe the worsening economic outlook and the Ukrainian crisis are to blame for the recent market moves.

German Unemployment Rises as Risks to Economy Build – BB

Spanish Economy Strengthens While Consumer Prices Drop – BB
Time to release the Spanish bulls? – FT

Monetary Developments in the euro area July 2014 – ECB
EZ bank lending: reduced headwind to GDP growth – Danske Bank

Business and Consumer Survey August 2014 – EC
Economic confidence drops in the euro area in August – TradingFloor

US Q2 GDP revised up to 4.2%; Jobless claims below 300k again – TradingFloor
Q2 GDP Revision Unexpected Rises On Alleged Jump In Capex To Highest Since 2011 – ZH
Q2 GDP Rises to 4.2% in the Second Estimate – dshort
U.S. second-quarter growth much stronger; jobless claims fall again – Reuters
Economy Grows More Than First Estimated on U.S. Investment Gains – BB
Real GDP Per Capita Rises to 3.49% - dshort
GDP Sparks Bond Buying & Stock Selling, Treasury Curve Crumbles Further – ZH

Pending Home Sales Drop YoY For 10th Month In A Row – ZH
Pending home sales point to stronger market – Reuters
Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Increase More Than Forecast – BB

Consumer Comfort in U.S. Climbs to Five-Week High on Employment – BB

Monitor: Chinese Credit CrunchDanske Bank

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Paths Diverge For Yellen and Draghi on Inflation Expectations * Fed Policy, Revenues, Help Relieve U.S. Budget Pressure: CBO * As Month End Nears, Fed Reverse Repo Volume Ticks Up * French PM Pressures ECB to go Further and Faster * Reserve Bank of India Gov. Rajan: Inflation on Target

Daily MacroWSJ
The contrast between Europe and other parts of the world is growing more stark in economic terms. Consumer price data out of the euro zone Thursday underscored the extent of the deflation threat hanging over the common monetary area, a threat that now has the European Central Bank gearing up for an aggressive bond-buying stimulus plan.

Europe Drives Capital MarketsMarc to Market

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank

FX Board for August 28: USD firm after earlier squirmTradingFloor

Talouspuhetta pysyvästä taantumastaRaha ja Talous
Tällä kertaa Raha ja talous -blogin dialogisarjassa pureudutaan niin sanottuun sekulaarisen stagnaation teoriaan.

Miksi Rinteen Remontti Oy on typerä idea – laske rahatTyhmyri

Alijäämä kasvaa – Suomea uhkaavat EU:n toimetVerkkouutiset
Budjetista sopu – velkatarve kasvoi äkkiäTalSa