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Thursday, August 7

7th Aug - ECB Preview

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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ECB preview: See you next month! TradingFloor
Consensus expectation is for no ECB action * Remember that TLTROs kick off tomorrow * Draghi will assess TLTRO progress before new move

Why Draghi's drinking in the Last Chance SaloonTradingFloor
The Italian economy remains in recession, deflation stalks the eurozone, France is in a mess and the collapse of a bank in Portugal are all signs the ECB should be taking decisive action. It won't.

ECB preview: How expectations lead to possible surprisesTradingFloor
Absolutely nothing is expected from today's ECB policy-setting meeting but there are many issues that should, and could, be addressed. The two main concerns are expectations over decreased inflation, and faltering growth.

5 Things To Look For At Thursday’s ECB Press ConferenceWSJ

ECB Watch: Something FISHy in the Eurozone?TradingFloor
Germany has problems and the FISH are floundering * Draghi rhetoric will be central to sentiment * Our bias is still towards EUR underperformance

Recent ECB Policy and Inflation ExpectationsFED
Lack of reaction in inflation expectations can be interpreted as a signal that market participants do not expect the policy to work in terms of boosting inflation.

ECB policy meeting: tough questions for Mario DraghiFT

ECB Interest Rates Preview: Mr. Draghi Will Hold, But… - WSJ

[June 6] ECB tries to please everyone, but fails TradingFloor
The European Central Bank tried to please everyone by deploying all of the tools at its disposal with the exception of quantitative easing. Unfortunately, the package leaves plenty of loose ends and unanswered questions.

[July 29] Big changes at the ECB: emulating the FedTradingFloor
Minutes add transparency and accountability * Less frequent meetings warranted as crisis less acute * Rotation leaves even big countries occasionally without a vote

The ECB must move to counteract market turbulencesFT

Market is betting against Draghi’s efforts to fight deflationMarketwatch

ECB 'won't move a muscle' despite deflation fearsCNBC
The ECB is expected to hold fire at its monetary policy meeting this week, despite a shock fall in inflation reigniting deflation concerns.

Article 123.1 and the ECBMainly Macro
Perhaps the perceived need to outlaw inflation using the constitution or by treaty is an attempt to solve a problem of the past, which is stopping us dealing with the problems of today.

Mario's magical J-Curve may take a long time bendingTradingFloor
Stephen Pope: The ECB believes its rate decision will cause an inflationary J-Curve * Unexpected changes in spending can lead to supply chain problems * CPI continues to drop - Draghi should have acted sooner

ECB preview: Draghi unlikely to rock the boatNordea
No new measures or monetary policy signals should be expected from the ECB at the August meeting as the threshold for further near-term easing is very high. The message is not set to move long yields from the record-low levels, while the ECB should be happy with a further weakening of the euro.       

ECB Preview: A meeting Draghi would have liked to cancelDanske Bank

ECB’s fingers crossed for private loans growthReuters