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Monday, August 25

25th Aug - Post-J-Hole, SPX breaks 2000, EUR dips

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Mum's the word on soaring Swedish household debt as poll nearsReuters
Johan and Alejandra are the kind of Swedes the IMF has been warning about - piling up debt to keep up with an ever-rising property market and fund a lifestyle of travel, maids and nights out.

Europe’s Fitful Financial IntegrationProject Syndicate
The road to pan-European financial regulation over the last two decades has been winding and rocky. But the general direction is clear: Unless the new internal market commissioner takes a different view, the European Commission will push further in the direction of centralization.

German finmin sees quick economic recovery after weak second quarter: SpiegelReuters
Germany's finance ministry expects Europe's biggest economy to bounce back after a weak second quarter and thinks growth may even exceed the government's current forecast of 1.8 percent for this year, Der Spiegel magazine reported on Sunday.

Launch of the Memos to the new EU leadershipBruegel
Bruegel Publication Launch on 4th Sep 2014 at 10:00am Location: The Hotel, Brussels

Italy asks EU to exclude infrastructure projects from deficits: ministerReuters
Italy is asking the European Union to exclude spending on infrastructure projects from the calculation of national budget deficits, Transport Minister Maurizio Lupi was quoted as saying in Corriere della Sera newspaper.

Russian economy minister calls for looser fiscal policy – Reuters
Russian economy: landing softly – Danske Bank
Ukraine accuses Russian forces of opening new front in separatist war – Reuters
Ukraine crisis update – Danske Bank

French economy minister says austerity measures sapping growthReuters
Austerity measures being pursued by France and elsewhere in the euro zone are quashing growth, French Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg was quoted saying on Saturday, renewing his attacks on policies he sees as negative for the economy.

French economy minister urges alternative to German austerityReuters
French economy minister urges alternative to German austerityBB
The time has come for France to resist Germany's "obsession" with austerity and promote alternative policies across the euro zone that support household consumption, firebrand French Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg said on Sunday.

Austerity, France and MemoriesMainly Macro

Hollande to Name New Cabinet After Split on Economic Path – BB
French government resigns, PM Valls to form new government Tuesday – Reuters
French Prime Minister Moves to Dissolve Cabinet – NYT
France thrown into political turmoil after government dissolved – The Guardian
Political Turmoil in Paris Leaves Investors Focused on FrankfurtWSJ
French government resigns after leftists call for U-turn – Reuters
(more stuff in the Jackson Hole-article)
ECB easing - will it work? No. 1: ECB's easing measures revisitedDanske Bank

Europe's Real Borrowing CostsZH
Not only is demand for credit weak in the periphery as the balance sheet recession rolls on, but "real" borrowing costs are at near-record highs... stark contrast between the cost of funding the banks (low) and Governments (historically low today) and real businesses (high).

The ECB cannot move lastWorthwhile

Draghi doesn’t understand what caused the eurozone double-dip The Money Illusion
The ECB tightened monetary policy sharply in 2011.  This caused NGDP growth to plunge, and the eurozone fell into a double-dip recession

Ifo Business Climate Index in Further Decline – CESifo
Germany: The motor sputters – Nordea
Confidence In Germany Is Plunging – BI
German business morale sours in August as Ukraine crisis weighs – Reuters

More Economists See Fed Policy As Too LooseWSJ
Economists overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to hold off raising short-term interest rates until at least 2015. But nearly a third say doing so would mean the central bank waited too long, a new survey found.

Yellen, Wages, and Intellectual HonestyKrugman / NYT

The Home-Flipping Bubble ImplodesWolf Street

New home sales fall, but U.S. economy stays on solid ground – Reuters
Slowing New-Home Sales Show U.S. Market Lacks Momentum – BB
Markit Flash US Services PMI – Markit
U.S. services sector growth slows for 2nd straight month in Aug: Markit – Reuters

BOJ Mulling More Upbeat Language on EconomyWSJ
The Bank of Japan is considering using more upbeat language to describe the state of the economy in its monthly economic assessment, suggesting it doesn’t see the need for immediate action to give faltering growth a shot in the arm.

Kuroda Douses Japan Stimulus ExpectationsWSJ
BOJ governor insists that, despite a recent bout of bad data, his campaign to end deflation remains on track at the current pace of easing.

German car parts suppliers asked to form JVs in China - Stuttgarter ZeitungReuters
Three German car parts suppliers have been told by China they can no longer manage their Chinese units independently but need to form partnerships with local peers

Daily Central Banks WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Wall Street Hedge Funds Increasingly See Early Fed Liftoff * Fed’s Yellen Remains Mum on Timing of Rate Change * Bank of England Deputy Sees Likely Rise in U.K. Wages * Japan Escaping Deflation Trap, Central Bank Chief Says * Euro-zone Inflation to Cool in August

Daily Macro WSJ
The contrast between the U.S. and the euro zone’s economic and policy outlook is becoming starker…This divergence should continue to push the dollar higher against the euro.

FI Eye-opener: Heading for zeroNordea
Equity markets were down and the safe haven yields were clearly lower. Hopes for new ECB measures alive and kicking. This week new cyclical lows in Euro area inflation. Yellen not ready yet to raise.

Strategy Sweden: On the radarNordea
Draghi flirting with QE? * Time for Swedish unemployment to drop more than expected? * Riksbank vis-à-vis Norges Bank & ECB * Bond yields moving away from nominal macro anchors * The post-financial crisis currency models still work * Pension sector news may affect Swedish yield curve

The G-20's Solution To Systemically Unstable, "Too Big To Fail" Banks: More DebtZH

Dollar Pares Initial Gains, French Government ImplodesMarc to Market

Icelandic volcano: Ashes to ashes for the airlines?TradingFloor
Another volcano in Iceland, this time, Bárðarbunga, could be close to a major eruption, and while a reprise of the 2010 airspace closure is improbable, the risk is real. Subsidies for airlines are unlikely and delayed market reactions create trading opportunities.

How Hedge Funds Are Making Money In 2014ZH

Suomen Natoon liittymistä vauhditettavaJukka Hankamäki

Pakotteet ja talousennustamisen haasteetRoger Wessman

Rikkautta, jolla on arvoaHalla-Aho