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Friday, August 1

1st Aug - Busy day for US-data, incl. payrolls

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Espirito Santo Family’s Swift Fall From Grace Jolts Portugal – BB
Banco Espirito Santo Plunges 20% As Goldman Cuts Stake – ZH
Espirito Santo Stock Suspended After 40% Crash, "Pending Information" – ZH

The EU’s Russian sanction: legal basis and how they will work in practice – Europp / LSE
Russian crisis already taking toll on western businesses – FT
The emergency exit's this way Vladimir – TradingFloor
Why Putin Has 2006 Flash Before His Eyes After Sanctions – BB
Russia has reserves to ride out sanctions - assuming no panic – Reuters
Europe’s Russian Connections – iMFdirect

U.K. Manufacturing Grows at Slowest Pace in a Year – BB
Italy Manufacturing at Eight-Month Low as Growth Momentum Ebbs – BB

Plosser Says Fed ‘Well Behind’ on Rate Setting – WSJ
Fed's Fisher, Plosser push for earlier rate hike – Reuters
Plosser Joins Fed Dissenters in Taking Losing Arguments Public – BB
Jobs data bolsters Yellen's argument on labor market slack – Reuters
No-Exit Strategy May Be Fed’s Burden as Record Stimulus Unwinds – BB

Nonfarm payrolls preview: back to trend – TradingFloor
U.S. job growth seen slowing, but remaining solid in July – Reuters

209K, Below Estimate; Unemployment Rises To 6.2%; Wage Growth Below Estimate – ZH
It’s Jobs Day. Here’s What Yellen, the White House and Others Will Look For – WSJ
Economy adds 209,000 jobs in July; unemployment rate edges up to 6.2 percent – WaPo
Nonfarm payrolls miss, but FOMC still behind the curve – TradingFloor
209,000 Jobs, 6.2% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk

Comments on Employment Report – Calculated Risk
July Employment Report – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
Muted Market Reaction to Job Data Disappointment – Marc to Market
July’s Employment Report – The Numbers – WSJ

209K New Nonfarm Jobs, Unemployment Rate Rises to 6.2% - dshort
Unemployment Rate Was Higher, but Employment Rate Held Steady – WSJ
Economists React to July’s Jobs Report: ‘Not Weak, But…’ – WSJ
Report confirms decent job growth, low wage pressure, plenty of slack – Danske Bank
5 Takeaways from the July Jobs Report – WSJ

Jobs Report Shows High-Wage Sectors Finally Digging Out – WSJ
Factory Jobs Still Falling Short of President’s Goal – WSJ
Why So Few People Are “Marginally Attached” to the Labor Force – WSJ
U.S. job growth cools, unemployment rate rises – Reuters

Consumer Spending Rose By Most In 3 Months Driven By Higher Energy Costs – ZH
PCE Price Index: Headline and Core Little Changed, Remain Below Target – dshort
U.S. consumer spending rises, inflation pressures muted – Reuters

US Manufacturing PMI Misses By Most In 11 Months – ZH
U.S. factory activity expands in July, pace slows: Markit – Reuters

ISM Manufacturing Surges To 3 Year Highs, Construction Spending Plunges – ZH
ISM manufacturing jumps to 39-month high of 57.1 in July – TradingFloor
ISM Manufacturing index increased in July to 57.1 – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing Hits a Three Year High – Bespoke
ISM Manufacturing Index: Moderate Growth Continues – dshort
Strong ISM report reflects consumer strength - slight moderation in H2 – Danske Bank
American Factories Expand at Fastest Pace in Three Years – BB

Final July Consumer Sentiment at 81.8 – Calculated Risk
Consumer sentiment dips in July – Reuters
July Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Four-Month Low – dshort

Construction Spending decreased in June – Calculated Risk

All those US indicators: what did we learn this week? – FT

Chinese Yuan Surges & Stocks Jump To 2014 Highs After PBOC Unleashes QEZH
BofA believes 3 factors are at play here: China, US growth, the end of the carry-trade

Abenomics Charm Fades as Yields Signal HeadwindsBB

BOJ Beat: Hollowing-Out of Car Manufacturing Weighs on ExportsWSJ


China PMI Jumps To 2 Year Highs, Japan PMI Slips – ZH
Economists React: China’s Manufacturers On A Roll – WSJ
Chinese PMI manufacturing hits 27-month high in July – TradingFloor
China's factories spring to life as global trade reawakens – Reuters
China Manufacturing Gauge Rises to Two-Year High – BB
Great Graphic: Asian PMIs – Marc to Market

Daily MacroWSJ
Thursday’s heavy selloff on Wall Street and the global unwind of risky bets that followed it underscored how vulnerable global markets are to any sign, however small, that the Federal Reserve might be moving closer to raising rates. The mere hint that years of easy money are coming to an end can translate into a very nervous response. And so we go into Friday’s all-important jobs report with the uneasy sense that the market might now be looking to read goods news – in the form of strong jobs growth, lower unemployment and potentially higher wage earnings – as bad news, as a sign that the Fed will have to accelerate an exit from its zero interest rate policy.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Plosser Puts”Considerable Time” In Play for Fed Rate Hike Plans * Asset Managers May Avoid Fed Oversight *  “Too Big to Fail” Report Hedges on Big Banks’ Funding Edge * BOJ Beat: Hollowing-Out of Car Manufacturing Weighs on Exports * Hong Kong Ramps Up Intervention to Curb Local Currency

PMI and Jobs as Stocks and Bonds Move LowerMarc to Market