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EUROPE
George
Friedman: It is becoming increasingly reasonable to believe that rather than an
interlude in European prosperity, what we now see is actually the new normal. The
key point is not that Germany's economy has contracted by a
trivial amount. The point is that it has come time to raise the possibility
that it could be a very long time before Europe returns to its pre-2008 prosperity
and to consider what this means.
Stiglitz
Says Stalling Euro Area Shows Dismal Failure – BB
Euro-area
austerity policies to tackle the region’s debt crisis have been a “dismal
failure” as economic growth grinds to a halt, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz
said.
Merkel
Cites Euro Construction Flaws as Economy Stagnates – BB
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel urged euro-area leaders to coordinate more closely on
economic policy and repair the “construction flaws” built into the 18-member
currency union to overcome the debt crisis.
Full
scope of Europe’s bank stress tests revealed – CNBC
European
regulators unveiled more details of the hotly-anticipated banking stress tests
on Wednesday, in an effort to strengthen the region's shaky financial sector.
French
President Francois Hollande said on Wednesday he would take steps to boost
homebuilding and help low-income households as he seeks to mollify voters angry
with record-high unemployment and a stagnant economy.
European
bank results: Is the glass half-full or half-empty? – DB
Research
The
half-year results of large European banks offer ammunition to both optimists
and pessimists: loan losses and administrative expenses are shrinking, but so
are total revenues. Net interest income, the sickly child of recent years,
finally seems to be stabilising; however, net income is down again to poor
levels. The state of an industry with two distinct faces.
EMU
External Account Reviewed – Marc
to Market
It is clear
that portfolio and direct investment accounts have deteriorated in recent
months. Couple this with the shift in speculative positioning, as reflected in
the futures market, and one can appreciate why the euro has been moving lower.
BOE MINUTES
BoE’s Carney
Loses Rates Consensus as Bank of England Splits – BB
The
symmetry test – Mainly Macro
UK rate consensus nearly rock-solid
even as markets flip-flop over timing – Reuters
Carney Seen
Holding Sway as BOE Dissenters Pull Away From Pack – BB
Production
in construction down by 0.7% in euro area – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
Are You
Sure We're Not There Yet? – Macroblog
We're not
brave enough to say that we know for certain that the economy isn't on the
verge of an accelerated pace of compensation growth. But, if we were brave
enough, we'd say our survey data indicate that such acceleration is unlikely.
FOMC MINUTES
Minutes of
July 29-30 Meeting – FED
Fed to give
warning on rates rise – FT
Fed notes
labor market progress, but not convinced yet – Reuters
Most
Participants will wait for more data – Calculated
Risk
Many
Members Believe Rates Should Rise Sooner – ZH
Interest-Rate
Debate Intensifies – WSJ
Hilsenrath
Warns Fed Rate-Hike Timing Debate Intensifying – ZH
FOMC
minutes for meeting of July 29-30 – FT
Fed
Officials Said Job Gains May Bring Faster Rate Increase – BB
ASIA
Stevens
Says Confidence Better Growth Driver Than Rate Cuts – BB
Reserve
Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the
nation’s economy needs an injection of confidence rather than lower interest
rates to stimulate growth, signaling policy will probably remain unchanged.
Australia’s
Central Bank Summons Animal Spirits – WSJ
Investors
have increasingly been pricing in a rate cut in Australia, as the nation battles with
lackluster economic data. But the central bank governor, Glenn Stevens,
attempted to douse any such expectation on Wednesday.
OTHER
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Two members
of the Bank of England’s nine-person policy-setting committee broke ranks and
called for rate hikes at the latest meeting. It may still be a faint, early
signal of the impending turn in policy, but the flag waving is only likely to
get stronger over the coming months. The BOE’s slow deliberations are likely to
be mirrored in the U.S., though maybe not quite so sharply
in the latest FOMC minutes. But with the global economy struggling for momentum
and deflation a persistent threat in the euro zone, progress toward tightening
won’t be quick.
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Crude Oil Price Drop Takes Pressure Off the Fed * Bank of England
Officials Break Ranks on Rates * Australian Central Bank Summons Animal Spirits
* What’s on the Docket for Global Central Banks This Year?
What the
USD breakout means
– Humble
Student
Dollar
Rides High – Marc to
Market
The Economic
Implications of an End to 30 Years of Falling Bond Yields – WSJ
If
Secular Stagnation Theory is Wrong, Rate Hikes Will Be Fast and Hard – WSJ
Irrational
exuberance meets secular stagnation – Antonio
Fatas
Annual
Asset Class Returns
– The
Big Picture
JACKSON HOLE
Jackson
Hole Rally
at Risk as Investors Preempt Yellen – BB
Jackson
Hole
Guide: Investors Seek Yellen Job-Market View – BB
Keep rates
low until the hidden jobless return to work – FT
Emerging
Markets Briefer - August 2014 – Danske
Bank
Geopolitics
and deflation
FINNISH
Aloita tästä: puretaan kaksi monopolia – Hannu
Visti
Euroopan parhaat reseptit – 14 testattua
rakenneuudistusta – EVA
Kaksitoista säätöpistettä, osa II – Takkirauta
Budjetti- ja talouskeskustelun masentavuus – Tyhmyri
Ei mitään todellista sisältöä eli odotamme herra Godotin
saapuvan
Nobel-voittaja: Euroopan talouspolitiikka on ollut "surkea
epäonnistuminen" – TE
Tutkimus todistaa: Suomalaisten varallisuus on Euroopan
maiden pienimpiä – TE
Merkel: Eurooppa kaipaa kovempaa kuria ja parempaa
yhteistyötä – HS
Saksan liittokansleri Angela Merkelin mukaan Euroopan
unionin täytyy kyetä tiukempaan talouskuriin ja uskottavampaan yhteistyöhön.