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Wednesday, August 20

20th Aug - Europe dissed

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe Facing The New Economic NormalEconmatters
George Friedman: It is becoming increasingly reasonable to believe that rather than an interlude in European prosperity, what we now see is actually the new normal. The key point is not that Germany's economy has contracted by a trivial amount. The point is that it has come time to raise the possibility that it could be a very long time before Europe returns to its pre-2008 prosperity and to consider what this means.

Stiglitz Says Stalling Euro Area Shows Dismal FailureBB
Euro-area austerity policies to tackle the region’s debt crisis have been a “dismal failure” as economic growth grinds to a halt, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said.

Merkel Cites Euro Construction Flaws as Economy StagnatesBB
German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged euro-area leaders to coordinate more closely on economic policy and repair the “construction flaws” built into the 18-member currency union to overcome the debt crisis.

Full scope of Europe’s bank stress tests revealedCNBC
European regulators unveiled more details of the hotly-anticipated banking stress tests on Wednesday, in an effort to strengthen the region's shaky financial sector.

France's Hollande announces tax, construction reformsReuters
French President Francois Hollande said on Wednesday he would take steps to boost homebuilding and help low-income households as he seeks to mollify voters angry with record-high unemployment and a stagnant economy.

European bank results: Is the glass half-full or half-empty?DB Research
The half-year results of large European banks offer ammunition to both optimists and pessimists: loan losses and administrative expenses are shrinking, but so are total revenues. Net interest income, the sickly child of recent years, finally seems to be stabilising; however, net income is down again to poor levels. The state of an industry with two distinct faces.

EMU External Account ReviewedMarc to Market
It is clear that portfolio and direct investment accounts have deteriorated in recent months. Couple this with the shift in speculative positioning, as reflected in the futures market, and one can appreciate why the euro has been moving lower. 

BoE’s Carney Loses Rates Consensus as Bank of England Splits – BB
The symmetry test – Mainly Macro
A Brief History of Bank of England Dissents – WSJ
UK rate consensus nearly rock-solid even as markets flip-flop over timing – Reuters
Carney Seen Holding Sway as BOE Dissenters Pull Away From Pack – BB

Production in construction down by 0.7% in euro area – Eurostat

Are You Sure We're Not There Yet?Macroblog
We're not brave enough to say that we know for certain that the economy isn't on the verge of an accelerated pace of compensation growth. But, if we were brave enough, we'd say our survey data indicate that such acceleration is unlikely.

Minutes of July 29-30 Meeting – FED
Fed to give warning on rates rise – FT
Fed notes labor market progress, but not convinced yet – Reuters
Most Participants will wait for more data – Calculated Risk
Many Members Believe Rates Should Rise Sooner – ZH
Interest-Rate Debate Intensifies – WSJ
Hilsenrath Warns Fed Rate-Hike Timing Debate Intensifying – ZH
FOMC minutes for meeting of July 29-30 – FT
Fed Officials Said Job Gains May Bring Faster Rate Increase – BB

Stevens Says Confidence Better Growth Driver Than Rate Cuts BB
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the nation’s economy needs an injection of confidence rather than lower interest rates to stimulate growth, signaling policy will probably remain unchanged.

Australia’s Central Bank Summons Animal SpiritsWSJ
Investors have increasingly been pricing in a rate cut in Australia, as the nation battles with lackluster economic data. But the central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, attempted to douse any such expectation on Wednesday.

Daily MacroWSJ
Two members of the Bank of England’s nine-person policy-setting committee broke ranks and called for rate hikes at the latest meeting. It may still be a faint, early signal of the impending turn in policy, but the flag waving is only likely to get stronger over the coming months. The BOE’s slow deliberations are likely to be mirrored in the U.S., though maybe not quite so sharply in the latest FOMC minutes. But with the global economy struggling for momentum and deflation a persistent threat in the euro zone, progress toward tightening won’t be quick.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Crude Oil Price Drop Takes Pressure Off the Fed * Bank of England Officials Break Ranks on Rates * Australian Central Bank Summons Animal Spirits * What’s on the Docket for Global Central Banks This Year?

What the USD breakout meansHumble Student
Dollar Rides HighMarc to Market

The Economic Implications of an End to 30 Years of Falling Bond YieldsWSJ

If Secular Stagnation Theory is Wrong, Rate Hikes Will Be Fast and HardWSJ
Irrational exuberance meets secular stagnationAntonio Fatas

Annual Asset Class ReturnsThe Big Picture

Why You Should Care About Jackson HoleBB
Jackson Hole Rally at Risk as Investors Preempt Yellen – BB
Jackson Hole Guide: Investors Seek Yellen Job-Market View – BB
Keep rates low until the hidden jobless return to work – FT

Emerging Markets Briefer - August 2014Danske Bank
Geopolitics and deflation

Aloita tästä: puretaan kaksi monopoliaHannu Visti

Euroopan parhaat reseptit – 14 testattua rakenneuudistustaEVA

Kaksitoista säätöpistettä, osa IITakkirauta

Budjetti- ja talouskeskustelun masentavuusTyhmyri
Ei mitään todellista sisältöä eli odotamme herra Godotin saapuvan

Nobel-voittaja: Euroopan talouspolitiikka on ollut "surkea epäonnistuminen"TE

Tutkimus todistaa: Suomalaisten varallisuus on Euroopan maiden pienimpiäTE

Merkel: Eurooppa kaipaa kovempaa kuria ja parempaa yhteistyötäHS
Saksan liittokansleri Angela Merkelin mukaan Euroopan unionin täytyy kyetä tiukempaan talouskuriin ja uskottavampaan yhteistyöhön.