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Tuesday, August 19

19th Aug - New Worries

Quote of the Day: 

My guess is that the ECB will not do any of these things. It will continue blaming eurozone governments for not implementing structural reforms. Eventually, it will adopt a programme of asset purchases that is too small, which it will abandon prematurely at the first sign of recovery. The result is that the eurozone will end up looking like Japan, but with one difference. Countries whose policy goes off track have nowhere to go. The member states of a monetary union have alternatives. By failing to deliver on its inflation target, the ECB could give member countries a good reason to leave the eurozone: they could have a better central bank. My advice to the ECB: do not let that happen. (Münchau / FT)

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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ECB in policy limbo, boxed in by its own plansReuters
The ECB is in a policy no man's land, bombarded by news of a stagnating euro zone economy but hesitant to move forward with new stimulus until measures it loaded in June have ignited.

QE for me but not for thee, Switzerland vs Eurozone editionFT
Whatever the ECB decides to do, the Swiss example may prove more instructive than the arguments of its former central banker.

Europe must face up to very real risk of losing gasTradingFloor
Nadia Kazakova: Gas set to re-emerge as critical weapon in Ukraine conflict * Ukraine could re-route gas meant for Europe as early as October * Ruble, Gazprom share price almost certain to take significant hit

Is the eurozone’s problem excessively small government?The Money Illusion

UK inflation falls more than expected, reduces chance of 2014 rate rise – Reuters
U.K. Inflation Slows More Than Forecast, Supporting BOE Stance – BB
BOE’s Euro-Zone Inflation Conundrum – WSJ
Great Graphic: Sterling Tracks Rate Expectations – Marc to Market

Iceland Prepares for Volcanic Eruption as Tremors Persist – BB
Airlines Urged to Heed WHO on Ebola So Flights Continue – BB

Market Betting on ‘Full Dovish’ Yellen at Jackson HoleWSJ

Ahead of Jackson Hole, July Inflation Remained Subdued – dshort
Core CPI Rises At Slowest Pace In 14 Months – ZH
Key Measures Show Low Inflation in July – Calculated Risk
Housing Starts increase to 1.093m Annual Rate in July – Calculated Risk
Housing Permits, Starts Surge Driven By Rental Housing Scramble – ZH
Housing Starts Reverse Last Month's Big Miss – Bespoke
A few comments on July Housing Starts – Calculated Risk
Housing Starts: Insight – Bespoke
A look behind the headline housing starts report – Sober Look

RBA Sees Uncertain Growth Outlook as Rate Pause ReaffirmedBB
Australia’s central bank said the nation’s economic outlook remains uncertain because of the conflicting forces at play and reiterated that interest rates are set to remain on hold.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed’s Exit Strategy Quietly Taking Shape As September Meeting Approaches * Fed Economists Criticize SEC Money-Fund Restrictions * Slowing U.K. Inflation Eases Pressure on BOE for Early Rate Rise

Daily MacroWSJ
Tensions in markets have eased somewhat, in part because conflicts in various regions have also eased…But as the week goes on, all focus will turn to discussions about monetary policy as preparations get underway for the Kansas City Fed’s conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at which both Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi are scheduled to speak.

What’s on the Docket for Global Central Banks This Year?WSJ
An interactive Global Central Banks Calendar,

What the world’s top central bankers will be talking about at Jackson HoleWaPo

Dollar Bid, while Soft CPI Sends Sterling ReelingMarc to Market

Carney still on fence as Eurozone rivals get ready for showdownTradingFloor
BoE minutes eagerly awaited * Germany locks antlers with Italy and France * Weak USD faces political resistance

Viro palauttaa tarkastukset Schengen-rajoille Obaman vierailun takiaVerkkouutiset

Kokoomus vs. muutHannu Visti
Kun kannatuksen kova ydin on vaaleista toiseen eräänlaisissa protestiäänissä, puolue on täysin immuuni kaikelle kritiikille, sillä tätä kivijalkaa ei kiinnosta kun ei se edes tiedä puolueen ohjelmasta juuri mitään.