Google Analytics

Thursday, August 7

7th Aug - The central banks did nothing

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Top-Ökonom Sinn warnt vor BankenunionFocus
Enteignung deutscher Sparer: "Dann können wir den Sozialismus einführen!"

Europe Air Cargo vs PMI pointing to economic slowdownMacronomics

European banking tests: Exam nervesThe Economist
Will this year’s stress tests do the trick?

German GDP growth: Only 1 ½% after allDB Research

Sweden: Accelerating house pricesNordea

Banco Espírito Santo: Sharing the painThe Economist
Portugal grapples with a failed bank

Italy’s Economic ‘Recovery’ from Hell in One Chart – Wolf Street
Italy's growth target 'a long way off', PM aide tells Corriere della Sera – Reuters
Italy shows that the eurozone crisis is only in remission – The Telegraph
Three terrible Italian ‘gaps’ – The Market Monetarist

Bank of England holds steady as rates debate heats upReuters
Bank of England maintains ultra-loose policy stanceMarkit
Bank of England leaves policy unchanged * Discussion of need for rate hike likely to have intensified amid strong economic growth * Worries focused on weak wage growth

Sanctions and SolidarityProject Syndicate
Daniel Gros: A common fund to provide compensation for the economic costs of sanctions should be an integral part of the EU’s emerging foreign-policy stance toward Russia. Creating such a fund would provide a potent symbol of solidarity within the EU, while providing an ideal opportunity to show why the sanctions’ costs are likely to be low.

Is fish fungible?The Economist
So Vladimir Putin has reacted to Western sanctions by imposing his own… It is pretty hard to see the point of this, even in political terms

Russia bans Western food imports – Reuters
How scams and shakedowns brought down Ukraine to its knees – Reuters
Russia Retaliation Inflicts Worst Euro-Area Scars on Finland – BB
Russian banks in euro zone could face curbs on ECB borrowing as sanctions bite – Reuters

ECB: Not a bazooka but comes closeNordea
The targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) the European Central Bank announced in June are a potent weapon against weak lending growth, and are likely to see big demand. We expect to see a total of around EUR 650bn taken from the TLTROs. They will contribute to an improving credit environment, keep short rates anchored very close to zero and continue to support spread narrowing in EUR government bond markets.

Europe’s low inflation is sending it into a lost decadeWaPo
They had one job. The European Central Bank (ECB) was supposed to keep inflation close to, but below, its 2 percent target. It's failed miserably, and it's not going to stop anytime soon.

Press release – monetary policy decisions – ECB
Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB
ECB Mario Draghi News Conference – Recap – WSJ
Live blog: Mario Draghi’s August press conference – FT
Draghi Stays the Course – Marc to Market
ECB’s Hopes Rest on Fallible Program – WSJ
ECB’s failure in one graph – The Market Monetarist
5 Takeaways From Mario Draghi’s News Conference – WSJ
Euro zone recovery uneven, rates to stay low: ECB's Draghi – Reuters
ECB says Ukraine crisis threatens EU recovery, keeps rates low – Reuters
Draghi Says Geopolitical Risks to Economy Increasing – BB
Beecroft on Draghi, QE and what next for EURUSD – TradingFloor
Analysts Pick Through Draghi’s Words – TradingFloor
ECB meeting: waiting for take-up on TLTRO – Danske Bank
ECB: Draghi’s sausage full of derivatives – Nordea
ECB has faith in June-measures but sees increasing geopolitical risks – Handelsbanken

Will the US inflate away its public debt?
Faced with daunting levels of public debt, it may be tempting to inflate away the burden. Some recent research has endorsed such a policy, but this column argues that it is infeasible. The rule of thumb that suggests an inflation rate four percentage points higher would reduce debt by 20% ignores creditor composition and maturity details, even if a 6% inflation rate were achievable. The hard truth is that there is no easy way out of debt.

As U.S. firms flee to Europe, can Washington get its act together on tax reform?WaPo
You might think the rush of companies renouncing their U.S. citizenship would at long last give Washington policymakers an incentive to compromise on tax reform. After all, everyone from President Obama on down to the greenest House Republican agrees that the corporate tax system, with its highest-in-the-developed-world 35 percent tax rate, is in desperate need of repair.

Shifts in U.S. Trading Partners From 1984 to the PresentWSJ
Over the past three decades, U.S. trading partners for goods have changed — but not drastically. The biggest shift has been the rapid rise of China as both an importer and exporter.

How Weak Is Housing? Five Charts Tell the StoryWSJ

Consumer Borrowing Posts Weak GrowthWSJ

Fed’s Lockhart: Fed Remains on Track for Second Half 2015 Rate BoostWSJ

Fed Hawks SquawkTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Without a more pressing threat to inflation expectations from a combination of actual inflation in excess of the Fed's target and wage growth to support that inflation, Yellen has room to normalize policy at a gradual pace. For now, the data is still on her side and the hawks will remain frustrated, much as they have for the past several years.

Economists Still Betting on Mid-2015 Fed Rate Rise, WSJ Survey ShowsWSJ

IMF's China: Blind men and the elephant?Humble Student
I have been meaning to write about this but other tasks got in the way. Last week, the IMF released its Article IV report on China. There were lots of concerns and suggestions, but to me, it seemed like the story of the blind men and the elephant.

Daily MacroWSJ
All eyes are on the European Central Bank this morning, though don’t expect much in the way of policy change from it. That’s not to say that European data recently haven’t sent strong signals that more monetary stimulus could be needed in the months ahead.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Da Costa’s Take: Rising Wages a Desired Outcome of Fed Policy * Lockhart Doesn’t See Fed Rate Hike Until Second Half of 2015 * Fed Looms as Major Factor in Treasury Borrowing Outlook * Federal Reserve Approves Bank of America’s Resubmitted Capital Plan * BOE Leaves Rate Unchanged As Debate Intensifies

Asset sell-off reminder of financial stability threatsFT
Mohamed El-Erian: Correction reflected cumulative impact of multiple causes

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank

Valtioneuvoston kanslian talousarvioehdotus vuodelle 2015 VN

Suomen säästämistasapainoRoger Wessman

Vaalibudjetti ei toteuduTalouden tulkki

Cashback budjettiAkateeminen talousblogi

Kapitalismin kriisiTakkirauta

Finanssivalvonta varoittaa pankkien tarjoamien vaihtovelkakirjalainojen ehdoistaPiksu

Hallitus selvityttää Venäjän vastapakotteiden vaikutuksetVNK

Analyytikko: Finnair jäisi todelliseen mottiinTalSa

Venäjän vastapakotteet käynnistivät "täyden kauppasodan" ja iskevät Suomeen pahastiHS

Testi: Oletko jälkikeynesiläinen talousajattelija?Raha ja Talous

Stubb Venäjän pakotteista: Tilanne on vakava, mutta tästäkin selvitäänYLE

Teknologiateollisuus: Pitkittyvä kriisi voi johtaa miljardiluokan menetyksiinYLE
Teknologiateollisuudessa Venäjän-viennin osuus on ollut yhdeksän prosentin luokkaa. Suunta on alaspäin. Pakotteet heikentävät itänaapurin taloutta entisestään, mikä näkyy vientikysynnän vähenemisenä suomalaisyrityksissä.

Keskustan Pekkarinen: Vaarana pakotekierreTalSa

Kesäkuun vienti osui odotusten alareunaanNordea
Suomen tavaraviennin arvo kasvoi Tullin tänään julkaisemien ennakkotietojen mukaan kesäkuussa prosentin vuodentakaisesta. Muutos osui täsmälleen ennakko-odotustemme (1-4 prosenttia) alalaitaan. Luvut eivät anna aihetta talouden kasvuennusteiden tarkistamiseen.