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Friday, August 15

15th Aug - Eyes on Ukraine and Jackson Hole

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Eurozone banks hold record amounts if sovereign paperSober Look

The Forever SlumpKrugman / NYT
Given the political and institutional constraints [ECB faces] , Europe will arguably be lucky if all it experiences is one lost decade.

End of the Wirtschaftswunder? Germany's sudden slowdownReuters

UK economy grows at fastest annual pace in over six years in second quarterReuters

Greece: Signs of improvement - compared to the recovery in LatviaDanske Bank

Putin's olive branch sees Dax swoon and hearts meltTradingFloor
Nadia Kazakova: Dax spikes a percentage point Thursday after Putin's Ukraine olive branch * Putin's quotes sufficiently vague to offer variety of possibilities * MICEX rise shortlived as Russian traders sift through rhetoric

EU Warns Russia on Ukraine Aid Convoy as Cover for TroopsBB

Q&A: How bad is the eurozone slowdown?FT
If the doubters are right and growth and inflation remain elusive this autumn, Mr Draghi will find it much easier to win support from Germany and other hawks on the governing council to buy government bonds if Paris and Rome are playing along.

Eurozone bond markets show the way to the ECBTradingFloor
Eurozone GDP data was weak but a mild relief and most of the reaction was in the bond markets, not in the forex space. Interest rate differentials suggest a much lower EURUSD

Europe’s Greater Depression is worse than the 1930sWaPo

Yellen Channeling Slick as Surrealistic Economy Shows ’67 ClaimsBB
Even with employment rebounding, Yellen has cautioned it still may be too soon to start withdrawing accommodation. She will give the keynote speech to the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 22.

Great Graphic: US Household Debt and CompositionMarc to Market

Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.4% in July – Calculated Risk
U.S. industrial production edged higher in July – Reuters
US industrial production rose 0.4% in July to new all-time high – TradingFloor
Factory Production in U.S. Jumps 1% on Equipment Demand – BB

U.S. producer prices moderate as gasoline tumbles – Reuters
Wholesale Prices in U.S. Rise at Slower Pace as Fuel Drops – BB
Producer Prices Slide, Core PPI Rises – ZH
US empire manufacturing disappoints; PPI in line – TradingFloor

US consumer confidence drops to 9-month low in August – TradingFloor
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Fell in August to Nine-Month Low – BB

Asian Eyes on Jackson HoleWSJ
Central bankers meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., next week are set to discuss labor market dynamics, and that’s a topic Asian policy makers are closely monitoring how the U.S. Federal Reserve interprets U.S. labor data is crucial for when it will decide to start guiding short-term interest rates higher. And that could have a big impact on Asian economies whose asset markets have been buoyed this year by cheap global money.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Yellen to Turn to Labor Markets in Jackson Hole * Bullard Says Fed Getting “Pretty Close” to Policy Goals * ECB Likely Faces Added Pressure Over Stalled Economy * U.K. Wages May Be About to Take Off * Chile’s Central Bank Cuts Monetary Policy Rate to 3.50%

Daily MacroWSJ
Markets are coming into the end of the week on sounder footing, with Asian and European stocks moderately higher, taking their cue from the U.S. overnight. There appears to be some relief that the tensions in the geopolitical arena have eased– particularly the conflict in Iraq, where the ISIS rebels have been pushed back and a refugee crisis seemingly averted. And perhaps there’s a realization that, no matter what, there will continue to be significant support from easy monetary policy.

Some Reflections on a Quiet DayMarc to Market

Vähittäiskaupan myynti kesäk. -1,6% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kesäkuussa 2014 vaihtotase ylijäämäinen – Tilastokeskus