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Tuesday, March 31

31st Mar - EURUSD turns down, Greece

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The short, sweet deflationABN AMRO
Eurozone inflation looks to be bottoming out and will be positive again in H2 * So called ‘deflation’ has coincided with strengthening activity data * With economic sentiment rising, and consumers becoming increasingly upbeat

Is Europe's confidence to be believed?TF
Few have realised that the European Commission has quietly stopped enforcing the Stability and Growth Pact, which limits deficit spending by member states. This fiscal stimulus coincides with the European Central Bank's asset purchase plans, and together they explain the recent optimism in the Eurozone. But easy fiscal and monetary policy are under threat due to real-world constraints and the will of Germany.

European Semester Is Slowly Dyingeuinside
The largest and boldest reform of the EU after the Lisbon treaty - the Union's economic governance - is headed toward a complete failure.

Eurozone: welcome to your currency board futureFT
Citi’s Chief Economist Willem Buiter spent some time with FT Alphaville explaining why he believes Draghi’s concession on profit and loss sharing among ECB member national central banks turns, in all likelihood, the single monetary unit into nothing more than a glorified currency board.

Eurozone’s Chief Bank Supervisor Outlines Priorities for YearWSJ
The eurozone’s chief bank supervisor on Tuesday outlined priorities for the current year, saying that teams were making sure that banks implemented findings from last year’s comprehensive assessment.

Nothing rotten with the krone in DenmarkTF
The DKK's peg to the EUR is much stronger than the CHF's, abolished in January * Denmark has a long history of pegging - first to the deutschmark, then the euro * Yesterday's treasury sale signals some easing

Irish Central Banker Absolves the Euro of BlameWSJ
Currency regimes matter less to the success or failure of economies than the quality of the policies pursued by governments and central banks, the governor of Ireland’s central bank said.

To save the euro, let Greece go – FT
Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Grexit’ Risk Rising – WSJ
Is Greece's Debt Odious? – Marc to Market
Greece fails to reach initial deal on reforms with lenders – Reuters
When Will Greece Run Out of Money? – WSJ
Greece—a Destabilizing Financial Squeeze – Robert Kahn

Eurozone deflation eases in MarchFT
Euro inflation increases as the impact from the oil price decline fadesDanske Bank

Euro area: Inflation moves in the right directionNordea
ECB policy makers can be quite satisfied with the incoming data these days. The economy is picking up and inflation is almost back to zero. With nominal bond yields forced down by QE, real rates are falling, supporting the economy and making the debt burden easier to bear. This is exactly the ECB’s plan.

Euro area unemployment rate at 11.3% - Eurostat
European Jobless Rates By Country - ZH

International trade in goods in 2014Eurostat
EU's top trading partners in 2014: the United States for exports, China for imports

The Fed’s grudging embrace of inflation targeting, part 1FT
The Fed’s inflation target doesn’t mean what you think it meansFT

Trends Around 1st Fed Rate HikesBarry Ritholtz
Credit Suisse’s Lessons For Lift Off – Recent sensitivities to interest rates, and trends around the 1st Fed rate hikes of 1994, 1999, and 2004

Ben Bernanke: Why are interest rates so low, part 2: Secular stagnation – Brookings
Why Ben Bernanke Isn’t Buying the Secular Stagnation Thesis – WSJ
Pascal, academia and Bernanke – Tony Yates

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Can Asia’s Banks Withstand a Financial Shock? * Regulators Intensify Scrutiny of Bank Boards * Fed’s Fischer Floats Ideas for Regulating Shadow Banks * Eurozone Price Falls Ease in March * China to Begin Deposit Insurance From May

Daily MacroWSJ
Once again stock markets are living in a world of their own…It’s all about central bank stimulus, of course – or in the case of China, merely in the expectation that the bad news will generate stimulus. A world in which bad news is perpetually good news for stocks is not necessarily a healthy one. Just saying.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Euro-area inflation to turn less negative * Yields continue downhill-trend, equities up * EUR/GBP uptrend remains intact, in an otherwise weak EUR trading session

Morning MarketsTF

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Dollar jumps

Daily ShotTF
The US housing market seems to be doing considerably better. And if housing continues to improve, and inflation stabilises, the US Fed's "liftoff" this summer becomes increasingly likely.

Futures, Oil Slide As Surging Dollar Now Takes Window Dressing Stage

FX UpdateTF
Greece's negotiations with its creditors have gone nowhere and it looks like the Greek leadership is cozying up to Russia in a dangerous gambit to achieve greater leverage. It looks like the euro will be increasingly vulnerable to headline risk in the days ahead as we ponder the direction this will take.

From the FloorTF
Once again Greece is keeping market participants worried. Is it really attempting to make a deal with Russia? Down under, a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to happen early next week, sending stocks higher.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
God's work: On money lenders and the poor

Are EURUSD and equity markets ready to tumble?TF
EURUSD's post-Fed swing higher could be over * European recovery may not be as solid as it appears * Markets could be hurt by a shift in economic surprise index

Where's the dollar going next?TF
First volatility in the dollar for six months * A look at counter-trend trading * USD likely to rise further in medium term

EUR/USD downtrend resumesABN AMRO
We expect EUR/USD to fall further * Our EUR/USD forecast for the end of June and December are 1.0 and 0.95 respectively

Juhani Huopainen: War story: A peg with office hoursTF
A new series on the agony and the ecstasy of trading * Finding the right set-ups is hard work but worth the effort * All you need is to be little less inefficient than others

Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Euroalueen kuluttajahinnat lähestyvät pohjaa | USA:ssa yksityinen kulutus laski | Euroalueen talouselämän luottamus vahvistui

Työtunnin hinta: Suomi 32,3 euroa, Bulgaria 3,8 euroaVerkkouutiset
Euroopan kalleimmissa maissa työvoima on kymmenen kertaa kalliimpaa kuin halvimmissa.

Juha Sipilä: Keskustan leikkaustavoite yhä kaksi miljardia euroaVerkkouutiset

Palokangas: Julkiselta sektorilta pitää leikata 10–15 miljardia euroa!YLE
Teknologiateollisuuden pääekonomisti Jukka Palokangas laskee, että vientituloja puuttuu tällä hetkellä noin 30 miljardia euroa vuodessa, jotta julkinen sektori kyettäisiin rahoittamaan ilman lisävelkaantumista. Palokangas vaatii julkiselle sektorille 10–15 miljardin euron leikkauksia usean vuoden konkreettisella ohjelmalla.

Huippujohtajien terveiset: Pidempää työpäivää, vähemmän liksaaYLE
Palkkamaltti, työpäivän pidentäminen, paikallinen sopiminen, lakko-oikeuden rajoittaminen, kevyemmät verot, kaupan aukioloaikojen ja alkoholimyynnin vapauttaminen. Lue Ajankohtaisen kakkosen kyselyyn vastanneiden huippujohtajien lääkkeet, joilla Suomi-neito heidän mielestään saadaan nostettua jaloilleen.

Kotitalouksien velkaantumisaste 122,2 prosenttia vuoden 2014 lopussa – Tilastokeskus
Julkisyhteisöjen alijäämä 3.2%, velka 59.3% bruttokansantuotteesta 2014 – Tilastokeskus