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Tuesday, June 30

30th Jun - D-Day for Greece, Referendum ahead

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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As Crisis Deepens, Eurozone Critics Are VocalWSJ

2 paragraphs that explain the Greek financial crisisvox

We need a mechanism for sovereign debt crisis resolutionLars Christensen

Who will dare say out loud ‘emperor has no clothes’?The Irish Times
The myths about Ireland as Europe’s best behaved state are not harmless lies

The euro was a big mistake, and Greece is paying the pricevox

ECB Report 2015Q2Place du Luxembourg
ECB Rates, Balance Sheet, QE & Tgt2 Balances Amid Greek Crisis

George Magnus: Referendum “No” would bring new economic darkness – Prospect
Referendum: This is the question for voters – MarketWatch
Joseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum – The Guardian
Greece threatens top court action to block Grexit – The Telegraph
For Greece, no fine deals, just ugly choices – Politico

ECB Says "Grexit Can No Longer Be Excluded", Hints At More QE – ZH
Greece Threatens 'Unprecedented' Injunction Against EU To Block Grexit – ZH
What Happens If Greece Defaults on Its Payment to the IMF? – WSJ
Steen Jakobsen: Beyond the brink – TF
Euros without the Eurozone – JP Koning

Stephen Pope: Goodbye Greece, good luck on your own – TF
The biggest question that nobody will ask or answer – Cityunslicker
Greece’s IMF payment: When is a default not a default? – FT
Martin Sandbu: Readers’ questions on Greek crisis answered – FT
No vote means isolation, Europe warns Greeks – FT

After Greek Monday, How Are Markets Now? – WSJ
Brussels, We've Got a Problem! – euinside
What Happens If Greece Misses an IMF Payment – At A Glance – WSJ
The only possibility forward is Grexit or an expensive haircut – Spiegel
Greece’s Five Possible Future Currency Arrangements – WSJ

Read the Greek Referendum Documents – WSJ
David Marsh: Why Europe still wants Greece in its unhappy family – MarketWatch
Leaked: Tsipras letter requesting a 3rd bailout – FT
Syriza is not GreeceFT
Greece in chaos: will Syriza’s last desperate gamble pay off? – The Guardian

The politics of debt relief – Politico
Greece’s Five Possible Future Currency Arrangements – WSJ
FAQ:  7 Questions and Answers about Greece and the Referendum – Marc Chandler
What happens at midnight? – Politico
Greece Asks For 2-Year Bailout From ESM, Merkel Promptly Shoots It Down – ZH

A simple solution to Greece's problems, but Europe won't try it – vox

Mads Koefoed: Central banks in JulyTF
ECB meeting on July 16 will devote much time to Greece * Next FOMC is end of July: jobs data supports Sept hike, CPI doesn't * RBNZ is only other big central bank expected to alter its policy rate

Global FX Strategy: sometimes the nonsensical makes senseNordea
In this month's edition, we look at the peculiar correlation of EURUSD with stock markets, and do an in-depth take on what EM currencies will be the most vulnerable to the approaching Fed lift-off.

Some Miscellaneous Thoughts about the FX Price Action Marc Chandler

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: China’s Slowdown is of Greater Consequence than Greece’s Debt * For Fed to Delay Rate Hikes, Global Tumult Would Need to Infect U.S * Europe, Athens Battle for Greek Hearts and Minds Ahead of Referendum * Fed’s Dudley: International Standards Boost Resilience of Financial System * Indonesia Bans Foreign Currencies in Domestic Transactions

Daily MacroWSJ
As if the Greek situation wasn’t confusing enough, the protagonists keep adding ferrets to the sack. Rumors suggest the Greek government might be trying to come up with a last-minute deal to stave off default on its International Monetary Fund debt today. It still isn’t clear what creditor proposals Greeks will be voting on in the coming referendum. Meanwhile, have the country’s eurozone partners given up on Greece or not?

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Grecian Burn Hits U.S. Stocks

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
More Weakness Expected As Markets Mull Greek Vote

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Volatility Ramps Up Amid Greek Debt Drama

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Greece to default on IMF payment * Fixed income markets shrug at Grexit * EUR/CHF will be defended again if necessary

Morning MarketsTF
Germany's unemployment fell to a 24-year low in May and today’s update for June might send numbers higher again. Greece's shadow remains, but the case is still intact for thinking that the US will continue to post moderately stronger Consumer Confidence numbers after a weak first quarter.

Daily FX Comment: DeadlinesMarc Chandler

Daily ShotTF
Amid a Greek default becoming increasingly likely, Greek government bond yields are strongly up while Greek equities fell heavily. However, although equity prices elsewhere dropped as well, Greece is fairly isolated in its crisis.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Tsipras hints at resignation if Greek voters back creditors’ proposal in referendum * Huge liquidity crunch threatens Greek cash-economy ahead of Greferendum * Schäuble angered by Juncker’s chief of staff’s interference in handling of Greek crisis * Ruparel: Had the UK joined the euro, it would have found itself in a similar position to Ireland * Chinese Premier pushing for bilateral investment treaty with the EU * Rasmusen brings forward Danish referendum on EU crime and policing rules * EU plans to end roaming charges by July 2017 * German unemployment sinks to 24 year low

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

US FrontrunningZH

Greek D(efault)-Day Arrives, As Does China's Plunge Protection Team

FX UpdateTF
As Greece is headed for defaulting on its payment to the IMF today, the market is confused on what to do with the euro, as yesterday’s action saw fresh shorts immediately squeezed out of their positions and EURUSD is back to where it was trading ahead of this weekend.

From the FloorTF
Shanghai markets might give traders whiplash, but the steady hand of the People's Bank of China is always poised to provide relief. Not so in Europe, however, where the breakdown of talks between Greece and its creditors has left investors struggling to find safe havens.

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Kiinan rahapolitiikka tukee tehottomia valtionyhtiöitä | Kreikka jättää maksamatta IMF:lle erääntyvän 1,5 miljardin euron lainan | Osakemarkkinat laskivat laajalla rintamalla Kreikan takia

Paavo Teittinen: Kreikan kansanäänestys on valtavaa uhkapeliäHS
Kreikka on surkeassa tilanteessa, josta kaikki osapuolet kantavat vastuun

Sailas: Kreikka-saatavat syytä alaskirjataKL

Henri Myllyniemi: Merkel, Juncker ja Hollande kampanjoimassa Suomelle laskuaUS

IMF:n tutkimus ei tue leikkauksia Suomessa – Onko lääke pahempi kuin tauti?YLE
Hallitusohjelman tavoitteena on julkisen velan taittaminen leikkausten avulla. Kansainvälisen valuuttarahaston IMF:n selvitys ei näe Suomen julkista velkaa riskinä ja varoittaa säästöistä, Helsingin yliopiston tutkimusjohtaja Mika Pantzar arvioi.

Suurten yritysten liikevaihto laski toukokuussa – Tilastokeskus