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Tuesday, January 12

11th Jan - Bottoming

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Poland Needs an Independent Central BankView / BB

Daniel Gros: The Threat That Will Save EuropeSocial Europe

Peter Spiegel: The endgame in Spain?FT

Gideon Rachman: Mass migration into Europe is unstoppableFT

German Wage Moderation and the Eurozone Crisis: A Critical Analysis INET

US Economic Outlook: Full employment – no recessionNordea
Our updated view of the US economy remains positive. Solid domestic fundamentals imply economic growth will stay above the pace of potential output despite continued weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector. Consumers will lead the way as they have plenty of tailwind. Full employment will be reached by mid-2016, and wage increases will continue to pick up. The Fed is still expected to hike rates four times in both 2016 and 2017. However, the Fed forecast is now more uncertain.

The Fantasy And The Reality Of China’s Economic RebalancingAlpha Now

Trend Following In Financial Markets: A Comprehensive BacktestPhilosophical Economics

A very strange interview with a BIS officialScott Sumner

FX: this time IS differentNordea
New Year - same fear. China and the stock market drop implies Fed second hike less likely. But ultimately the biggest threat is inflation - or lack of it. Now it matters no less for the USD than for the EUR...

How China could trigger a global crisisWaPo

Keep an Eye on 'Billions' as a Market Indicator - View / BB
'Billions' Dishes a Smorgasbord of Wall Street Scandals: Review - BB

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Look to Recover After Worst-Ever Opening Week

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Seasonals Are Not Working in Stocks’ Favor

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Markets shrug solid US jobs report, EUR and JPY safe havens, Scandi inflation ahead * Danish and Norwegian inflation on the agenda * Rates markets shrug strong payrolls as risk aversion predominates * Inflation readings should be good enough to support the Scandi currencies this week

Morning MarketsTF
Bears were on the rampage on Monday in Asian markets with shares taking a tumble at the start of trading in China Hong Kong Seoul and Sydney. Australia's S&P/ASX200 slumped to a two and a half year low and later the Shanghai Composite stuttered to a loss of over 5%.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Put on Your Red Shoes and Dance the Blues

Daily ShotTF
Even after the strong US payrolls report on Friday markets are completely discounting the Federal Reserve''s dot-plot trajectory of four rate hikes for 2016 giving only a 6.5% probability to a four or higher number of hikes this year largely due to skepticism about US inflationary pressures.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
David Cameron says he will stay on as Prime Minister in event of Brexit vote * Heads of UK big businesses want UK to be part of a European economic, not political community * European Commission to consider initiating probe into Polish government’s Constitutional Tribunal Reforms amid war of words between Polish and German politicians * Bundestag to debate new measures following Cologne sex attacks as Merkel comes under increasing pressure * Juncker: Refugees have to accept they also have obligations * Putin: Failure to fully implement Minsk agreement is solely the fault of Ukraine * Brexit fears add to decline of sterling corporate bond market * Poll: Three quarters of Dutch voters set to reject Ukraine treaty in referendum * Pay rise sees EU judges able to earn more than €300,000 a year * European Commission to begin discussion on whether to consider China a ‘market economy’ * Catalan separatist parties officially in power after eleventh-hour deal * Greek opposition party elects free market reformer as leader * Renzi plans to renegotiate EU fiscal treaty

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Mas goes — Poland under pressure

Chinese Stocks Plunge, Asia At 4 Year Lows But PBOC Currency Intervention Pushes US Futures Higher


FX UpdateTF
Friday’s strong US jobs report was insufficient medicine for the market’s nervous breakdown and the bad vibes spilled over into this week as we wonder what can provide a sense of calm after one of the more traumatic starts to a year in recent memory.

From the FloorTF
It would appear that 2016 began under a bad star at least as far as world markets are concerned. With sentiment in free-fall all assets save the safest of havens are tumbling. But are we overreacting? Saxo Bank's Peter Garnry and Simon Fasdal say it's at least possible...

Juan heiluu, mutta Kiinan kilpailukyky ei parane * Työpaikkojen määrä kasvoi USA:ssa vahvasti * Riksbank oli joulukuussa kahden vaiheilla * Työllisyysluvut vahvistivat dollaria vain väliaikaisesti

Citigroupin pääekonomisti: Pakolaiskriisi voi elvyttää euroalueen taloutta HS
Willem Buiterin mukaan vuotta leimaavat useat suuret epävarmuustekijät.

Plan B from outer euro? Antti Ronkainen

Palkallinen sopiminen ja palkkojen jäykkyys – Roger Wessman

Sipilä ja Löfven: Suomen ja Ruotsin yhteistyö aseellisissa kriiseissä syveneeHS
Kalevassa ja Dagens Nyheterissä julkaistussa tekstissä Juha Sipilä ja Stefan Löfven korostavat yhteistyön tärkeyttä myös Naton kanssa. Heidän mielestään Venäjän toimet Ukrainassa ovat synnyttäneet Euroopalle vakavimman turvallisuusuhan kylmän sodan jälkeen.

Sipilä ja Löfven: "Käsissämme vakavin turvallisuutta uhkaava haaste"YLE
Suomen ja Ruotsin pääministerit ovat julkaisseet kummankin maan lehdissä poikkeuksellisen yhteiskirjoituksen, jossa linjaavat entistä tiiviimpää yhteistyötä aseellisissa kriiseissä.

Näkökulma: Kuka saa valvoa kadulla?IL
Katupartioiden paheksunta on saanut kohtuuttomat mittasuhteet, kirjoittaa Iltalehden rikostoimittaja Risto Kunnas.