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Tuesday, January 19

19th Jan - Turnaround Tuesday?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Will refugees acquire full free movement rights?Open Europe

Portugal's austerity reversal may spell budget troubleReuters

Carney Says ‘Not Yet Time’ for Bank of England Rate IncreaseBB
Pound slides to lowest since 2009 after speech in London * Governor says journey to policy normalization is `still young'
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff View / BB
Banks, Oil, Davos and Blockchains

The ECB and the Fed: A comparative narrativevox
Although the Great Recession was viewed as a US problem, the Eurozone was affected by it from the start. This column compares the monetary policy responses to the Crisis by the Fed and the ECB. It argues that the US approach has been much more aggressive and proactive. The ECB failed to provide stimulus when needed, and as a result the Eurozone might slip into a low-inflation trap.

Quantitative easing: A new eBookVoxEU
Policymakers have employed various new tools in response to the Global Crisis to revitalise economic performance. This column introduces a new eBook that brings together key Vox columns to reveal the evolution of the economic profession’s thinking about one such tool – quantitative easing.

IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in OilBB
Iran could restore 600,000 barrels a day of output by mid-year * Agency cuts 2016 global demand outlook, raises non-OPEC supply

IEA Sees Iran's Return Intensifying Battle for Europe Oil MarketBB
Iran will compete with Saudi Arabia, Russia in Mediterranean * Nation has `work cut out' to regain status as OPEC's No. 2

WEO Update: Subdued Demand, Diminished Prospects IMF

Weak Pickup in Global Growth, with Risks Pivoting to Emerging MarketsIMF
Global growth forecast revised down—3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017 * Emerging market and developing economies facing increased challenges * Key risks relate to China slowdown, stronger dollar, geopolitical tensions, renewed global risk aversion

Video: A View from the IMF: World Economic OutlookIMF
Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook Update IMF

IMF downgrades outlook for world economyWaPo
IMF cuts global growth forecast as China slowsReuters
IMF chief economist:  overreaction in markets to oil, ChinaReuters

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
China, Oil Drag Global Stocks Lower

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Looking for a Market Bottom? Keep an Eye on Oil

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Chinese growth slightly disappoints * NOK suffers * King Report on the Riksbank * Portuguese bonds under pressure

Morning MarketsTF
The Chinese expansion figures for 2015 are in and while there were no real downside surprises relative to forecasts the stats show mainland growth falling to a 25-year low as manufacturing activity continues to tumble.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Collective Sigh of Relief in Capital Markets or Turnaround Tuesday?

Daily ShotTF
A whole raft of Chinese data has undershot expectations but that's not the real worry as GDP is still expanding. But what if the figures are inaccurate as more and more analysts suspect? Elsewhere a look to history tells us that scepticism about RBS pronouncements might be a good idea.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Conservatives divided over timing of EU referendum * Hollande unveils ‘emergency plan’ to boost jobs * Merkel challenged by Cabinet Member to close Germany’s borders * King of Spain starts tricky consultations over formation of new government * Tusk: I am not enthusiastic about Commission intervention in Polish affairs * Dijsselbloem lays out three reforms to make Europe “shock-proof” * Greek Finance Minister warns quick disbursement of bailout funds needed to avoid another Greek crisis

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Poland vs Parliament — Hollande’s plan — Davos digest

Equities Soar, Oil Back Over $30 On Hopes For More Stimulus Following Disturbing Chinese Data


FX UpdateTF
Early trading in Europe today suggests markets are trying to find inspiration from the rally in risk sentiment in the Asian session – but today’s US session is where we need confidence to return as the US returns from a three-day weekend.

From the FloorTF
Risk sentiment staged a recovery in Asian markets on Tuesday despite soft Chinese fourth-quarter GDP data leaving it up to Europe to decide whether the improvement would catch hold or prove to be a dead-cat bounce.

Kiinan teollisuustuotannon vaikeudet jatkuvat - hidastuva kasvu johtaa lisäelvytykseen * Saksan rahoitusmarkkinoiden luottamus heikkenee * Öljyn hinta jatkoi vajoamistaan

Kiinan velan kasvun takana korkea säästäminenRoger Wessman

Saksa uhkaa lopettaa talousavun, jos Afrikan maat eivät ota turvapaikanhakijoita takaisinVerkkouutiset