Google Analytics

Wednesday, January 27

27th Jan - Fed sits on hands, unsure

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Lagarde’s IMF future in trouble on home soilPolitico

Poland – Hungary: In the same boatBNP Paribas
Euroscepticism Masked as Patriotism, 1:0 for Pro-Europeanseuinside

Report Faults ECB in Irish Banking CollapseNYT

Commission and Italy agree bad-debt dealPolitico
Italian Banks Sink As "Bad Bank" Plan UnderwhelmsZH
Who Gets to Pay for the Italian Banking Crisis?Wolf Street

Merkel’s coalition ally threatens migration lawsuitPolitico
Rise of AfD poses a challenge for Merkel’s policy on refugeesEuropp

Noah Smith: Free Trade With China Wasn't Such a Great Idea View / BB

The Fed, the Markets, and the Great Guessing Game – WSJ
Editorial: The Fed's Best Policy: Wait and See – View / BB
Markets Don’t Believe the Fed – BB
Will the Fed respond to crude's collapse? – TF

January 2016 meeting statement – FED
Longer-run goals and policy strategy – FED
Implementation note – FED
How the January Statement Changed from December – WSJ
Fed Mouthpiece Parses Back-Pedaling Fed Statement – ZH
Traders Still Disagree With the Fed on Its Rate-Rise Path – WSJ
Fed Says Little and Does Less – Marc Chandler
Economists: ‘No Major Change Yet to the Policy Outlook’ – WSJ

The Only Game in Town?Pension Pulse

The SWF taper: how big is it?ABN AMRO
There has been a rising focus on the hit to markets from lower oil prices * One channel is declining investment from Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) * SWF assets rose by USD 50 per month before the oil price collapse…and have been falling by around USD 5bn per month since * However, this likely reflects price movements as well as flows * The SWF taper is less than the Fed’s but is still significant

Great Graphic: World Equities and OilMarc Chandler
Oil and stocks. Correlations that work until they don'tPolemic’s Pains

February Rates & FX outlookMacro, Credit & FX

Robert J. Gordon: Goodbye, Golden Age of GrowthView / BB

Ashoka Mody: The Market's Troubling MessageView / BB
We'd like to think investors are overreacting. But they may be onto something.

Former GS-Head of Junk Bonds On Credit MarketBB
The unwinding of the "efficient capital structure" beckons.

Central Bank Credibility: What Does it Mean? Marc Chandler

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Rally Ahead of Fed Meeting

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Fed Decision Comes Amid Tumultuous Backdrop

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Risk tentatively on * We expect no clear hints from the FOMC for the March meeting * EUR weakens as markets price in March ECB rate cut * Brent at USD 31.7, 10-year Bunds at 0.45% * German 2- and 5-year yields reach new lows

Morning MarketsTF
Iraq's oil minister helped fuel an equities rally overnight but oil's initial surge ultimately gave way and the Shanghai Composite Index was unable to hitch a ride plunging to a 13-month low at one point. Tonight's FOMC will dominate today's agenda.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Mixed Dollar as Eyes Turn to FOMC

Daily ShotTF
The selloff in Chinese equities persists despite yesterday's US stock market rally as crude oil prices keep heading south and the energy markets remain exceedingly jittery. The strong US dollar is hurting earnings of US exporters and expectations of negative interest rates in the US by end-2017 have risen.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
IPhones, Index Funds and Sherpas

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
Electricity, Inversions and Research

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Migration Watch claims Brexit could reduce net immigration by 100,000 * Timmermans: 60% of asylum claims lodged in the EU are not valid * European Court of Auditors report exposes Commission failings during Eurozone bailouts * AfD shores up position as third force in German politics * Irish banking inquiry finds ECB threatened withdrawal of bank liquidity to force compliance from Irish government * Italy and European Commission strike deal on Italian banks’ bad loans * Danish parliament votes in favour of law to seize valuables from migrants * Greek PM warns “pension system is not sustainable” and “will collapse” without reform

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Car law overhaul — EU start-up visa — Juncker drops Greece

Futures Slide On Apple Disappointment, Oil Slumps Ahead Of Fed Decision


FX UpdateTF
A range of global market developments since the December FOMC meeting has seen the market price out all but about one of the anticipated Fed rate hikes this year after some Fed members as recently as last month predicted we could see four rate hikes. But will today's FOMC statement support this expected dovish pivot?

From the FloorTF
China's stock markets got no respite from the oil-driven selling while global markets clung to expectations that the US Federal Reserve would take no action at its policy meeting later on Wednesday.

Fed haluaa nostaa, mutta ei pysty vielä tänään * Ruotsista julkaistaan luottamuslukuja ja tietoa kapasiteetin käyttöasteesta * Kuluttajien luottamus koheni USA:ssa * Öljyn hinnannousu ei riittänyt vetämään korkoja ylemmäs

Maahanmuuttopolitiikan ajopuu Matti Virén