Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
The EU favors politics over law in Poland clash – Politico
The Commission appears to be making up for inaction in Hungary by picking on Poland.
German exports and the Eurozone – Simon Wren-Lewis
Mark Mazower: Lessons from the past are key to Europe’s survival – FT
Thinking about EU evolution is near impossible yet never has it been more vital.
Ifo Business Climate Index Drops Markedly – CESifo
Germany: Ifo business climate down, now closer to reality – Nordea
Europe’s migration crisis of 2016 – VoxEU.org
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard: The migrant crisis will continue to top headlines in 2016. This column takes a detailed look at the EU’s response to dealing with migration, concluding that everything points towards failure as the likely outcome.
Davos Frets Over Merkel as Refugee Crisis Tests Europe's Anchor – BB
Executives voicing concern German chancellor may be forced out * Dutch finance minister warns against upper limit for refugees
EU weighs extension of Schengen border controls – Politico
Führende Konzernchefs sehen Flüchtlingsstrom skeptisch – Die Welt
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
How domestic economic strength can prevail over global weakness – ECB
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, 25 January 2016
Wolfgang Münchau: Mario Draghi’s inflation targets miss the mark – FT
The ECB keeps failing because it is not fully committed
Greece is Still in a Hot Spot – Marc Chandler
Citi: Which Italian Banks Are Most Exposed To Soaring NPLs – ZH
A Fix for Italy's Banks Can't Wait – View / BB
Renzi and the EU: Troublemaker – The Economist
Italy’s prime minister is picking fights with Germany and the EU
El-Erian: What the Fed Will and Won't Do This Week – View / BB
Martin Enlund: Fed - Move Slow and (still) Break Things – Nordea
Do policymakers really know what they are doing? Combining former chief Bernanke's jokes with Wu-Xia's research supports the out-of-consensus idea (fear) that the Fed may already have tightened as much as it did during the previous four major tightening cycles. Fed may thus not only have to deal with China, EM, oil and the Snowzilla, it may also need to come to terms with the Shadow Policy Rate.
Market rout could blow Fed off course if consumers blink – Reuters
Gideon Rachman: Shadow of populism hangs over Davos – FT
Delegates mull Trump presidency, UK vote and borders crackdown
Proprietary indexes spread – BB
How Wall Street Finds New Ways to Sell Old, Opaque Products to Retail Investors
Soros Says China Hard Landing Will Deepen the Rout in Stocks – BB
Saudi Arabia's Secret Holdings of U.S. Debt Are Suddenly a Big Deal – BB
Oil and stock prices – Bruegel
The recent positive link between oil and stock prices has been puzzling for most observers. While a decrease in the price of oil was traditionally seen as a net positive for oil importing countries such as the United States, the concurrent declines in the price of oil and the US stock market suggest that the relationship may be different in the current environment.
When The Fed Put Fails – ZH
Proxy hedges from BofAML
Juhani Huopainen: Is the global market bottom getting closer? – TF
Crude oil is probably close to its multiyear low * Unfortunately, emerging markets and key FX pairs are not yet supportive * Equity market correction is too deep for a bull market * Trade this swing higher, but don't expect new highs before markets go sour again
This is Why Junk Bonds Will Sink Stocks: Moody’s – Wolf Richter
“Some very critical things are hidden.”
Aurelija Augulyte: FX: risk-off. Off? – Nordea
Was it a dead-cat bounce in the Markets, or the beginning of the reversal? The USD rose this year with USD rates falling - the opposite should occur upon market sentiment recovering. Yet not necessarily against the EUR and JPY...
What's Worrying the Davos Elite? Plenty – BB
A polarized U.S. presidential race; question marks over China’s economic management; and a once-dominant German chancellor suddenly under threat.
Kuroda Gives No Hint of BOJ Appetite to Expand Stimulus – BB
A New Mindset for a Shifting Global Economy – BB
El-Erian: As companies and investors painfully discovered in 2008, liquidity can be most elusive when you need it most.
How Larry Page’s Obsessions Became Google’s Business – NYT
Horizontal History – Wait But Why
Creative blocks – Aeon
The very laws of physics imply that artificial intelligence must be possible. What’s holding us up?
The Origin of the @ Symbol and the First Email Message – Today I Found Out
Alexander Litvinenko: the man who solved his own murder – The Guardian
Quantum Links in Time and Space May Form the Universe’s Foundation – Wired
How to Construct the Ultimate Conspiracy Theory – Wired
Tim Powers is one of the foremost practitioners of the secret history genre, in which real historical events are revealed to have surprising fictional explanations.
Why Robots Mean Interest Rates Could Go Even Lower In The Future – BB
Technology gains will hurt workers and boost productivity * Automation to put `a lid on' inflation, says UBS's Weber
The Sex Machine – Boston Magazine
Jon Gross is having more sex than you. Way, waaaaay more sex, and with way more people’s spouses. So how exactly did this middle-aged New England plumbing-supplies salesman find the secret to free love, make friends with porn stars and multimillionaires, and become America’s king of swingers?
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks End Volatile Week With Another Gain
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Here’s What the Markets Will Be Watching This Week
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Rates recover with oil jump, risk sentiment drives rates – expect further recovery * Ifo to watch today * Fed to play its part on Wednesday * EUR safe haven unwind puts pressure on EUR/USD
Morning Markets – TF
What bear market? There was no sign of the creatures in Asia markets today with the jump in oil prices giving bourses around the region a welcome lift. Shares made good gains in Tokyo helped by speculation about Bank of Japan easing. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 even soared back above 5000 points.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Recovery Pauses in Europe
Daily Shot – TF
Friday's stunning rally in crude oil prices lifted shares sharply and crude now drives much of the sentiment across markets. But overall market sentiment remains terrible and contrarian investors suggest that risk assets will climb a "wall of worry."
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Follow Open Europe’s #EUWargames live online * Sunday Times: UK on course to secure “safety mechanism” for non-euro member states * Britain considers taking in up to 3,000 unaccompanied young refugees already in Europe * Rajoy rejects mandate to form new Spanish government * Centre-right candidate triumphs in Portuguese presidential election * Belgium raises doubts about FTT plan * Italian Finance Minister warns on rules limiting banks holding of domestic sovereign debt
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Schengen’s last chance — Populist polls — Le Pen off-grid
US Open – ZH
Oil Slides Dragging Global Stocks, US Futures Lower, After Saudi Aramco Supply Comments
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
It’s a big week for central banks again this week with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday the chief focus though the RBNZ meeting the same day is also important and there is some chance that the Bank of Japan makes a move at its Friday meeting.
From the Floor – TF
The central-bank convergence narrative is being taken as gospel but the hope that this means the Fed will not hike more than once in 2016 could be an erroneous one.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fedin vuoro piristää markkinatunnelmaa, korostaa inflaation merkitystä, kasvu hidastuu tilapäisesti * Raakaöljyn hinta nousi jyrkästi perjantaina Fed korostaa inflaation merkitystä
Välttäkäämme uutta liittovaltiokierrosta – Peter Nyberg
Meneillään olevalla euroalueen pakolaiskriisillä ja euroalueen ongelmilla on vahva yhteinen syntyhistoria.
IL-kysely: Asenteet turvapaikanhakijoita kohtaan ovat koventuneet – IL
Finland and Its Northern Peers in the Great Recession – ETLA
The report focuses on the relative macroeconomic performance since the global financial crisis of six Northern European countries with a special emphasis on Finland. While fiscal and monetary policies have definitely impacted on macroeconomic outcomes in the six countries examined, as a whole they do not appear to be the key driving forces of the differences observed between the countries.
Jan Hurri: Taasko se alkaa? Riskiraha karkaa nyt Italian pankeista – TalSa
Pääomaa pakenee Italian pankeista kuin varoituksena uudesta pankkikriisistä. Tästä varoituksesta on leikki kaukana, sillä Italian pankkiriskien ja velkamäärien rinnalla Kreikka oli alkulämmittelyä.
Pankkimies Suomen paluusta markkaan – Uusi Suomi
Sanna Ukkola: Aatekauppiaat – YLE
Uusi alku – Paavo Väyrynen
Väyrynen tekee pesäeroa puolueeseen – IS
Paavo Väyrynen ja lopun alku – Markku Huusko
Väyrynen kertoo hetkestä, jolloin hänellä kärähti pinna Sipilään – IS
Väyrysen purkaus – ensimmäinen kritiikki omilta Sipilälle – IS
Väyrynen: Valta liberaaleilla ja lestadiolaisilla – IL
Vähittäiskauppa jouluk. +1.5% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen tuottajahinnat -0.3% Q4 YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden tuottajahinnat jouluk. -2.6% YoY – Tilastokeskus