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Monday, January 25

25th Jan - The long one to begin the week

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The EU favors politics over law in Poland clashPolitico
The Commission appears to be making up for inaction in Hungary by picking on Poland.

German exports and the EurozoneSimon Wren-Lewis 

Mark Mazower: Lessons from the past are key to Europe’s survivalFT
Thinking about EU evolution is near impossible yet never has it been more vital.

Ifo Business Climate Index Drops Markedly – CESifo
​Germany: Ifo business climate down, now closer to reality – Nordea

Europe’s migration crisis of 2016
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard: The migrant crisis will continue to top headlines in 2016. This column takes a detailed look at the EU’s response to dealing with migration, concluding that everything points towards failure as the likely outcome.

Davos Frets Over Merkel as Refugee Crisis Tests Europe's Anchor BB
Executives voicing concern German chancellor may be forced out * Dutch finance minister warns against upper limit for refugees

EU weighs extension of Schengen border controls Politico

Führende Konzernchefs sehen Flüchtlingsstrom skeptischDie Welt

How domestic economic strength can prevail over global weaknessECB
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, 25 January 2016

Wolfgang Münchau: Mario Draghi’s inflation targets miss the markFT
The ECB keeps failing because it is not fully committed

Greece is Still in a Hot SpotMarc Chandler

Citi: Which Italian Banks Are Most Exposed To Soaring NPLs ZH

A Fix for Italy's Banks Can't WaitView / BB

Renzi and the EU: TroublemakerThe Economist
Italy’s prime minister is picking fights with Germany and the EU

El-Erian: What the Fed Will and Won't Do This Week View / BB

Martin Enlund: Fed - Move Slow and (still) Break ThingsNordea
Do policymakers really know what they are doing? Combining former chief Bernanke's jokes with Wu-Xia's research supports the out-of-consensus idea (fear) that the Fed may already have tightened as much as it did during the previous four major tightening cycles. Fed may thus not only have to deal with China, EM, oil and the Snowzilla, it may also need to come to terms with the Shadow Policy Rate.

Market rout could blow Fed off course if consumers blinkReuters

Gideon Rachman: Shadow of populism hangs over DavosFT
Delegates mull Trump presidency, UK vote and borders crackdown

Proprietary indexes spreadBB
How Wall Street Finds New Ways to Sell Old, Opaque Products to Retail Investors

Soros Says China Hard Landing Will Deepen the Rout in StocksBB

Saudi Arabia's Secret Holdings of U.S. Debt Are Suddenly a Big DealBB

Oil and stock pricesBruegel
The recent positive link between oil and stock prices has been puzzling for most observers. While a decrease in the price of oil was traditionally seen as a net positive for oil importing countries such as the United States, the concurrent declines in the price of oil and the US stock market suggest that the relationship may be different in the current environment.

When The Fed Put Fails ZH
Proxy hedges from BofAML

Juhani Huopainen: Is the global market bottom getting closer?TF
Crude oil is probably close to its multiyear low * Unfortunately, emerging markets and key FX pairs are not yet supportive * Equity market correction is too deep for a bull market * Trade this swing higher, but don't expect new highs before markets go sour again

This is Why Junk Bonds Will Sink Stocks: Moody’sWolf Richter
“Some very critical things are hidden.”

Aurelija Augulyte: FX: risk-off. Off?Nordea
Was it a dead-cat bounce in the Markets, or the beginning of the reversal? The USD rose this year with USD rates falling - the opposite should occur upon market sentiment recovering. Yet not necessarily against the EUR and JPY...

What's Worrying the Davos Elite? PlentyBB
A polarized U.S. presidential race; question marks over China’s economic management; and a once-dominant German chancellor suddenly under threat.

Kuroda Gives No Hint of BOJ Appetite to Expand StimulusBB

A New Mindset for a Shifting Global EconomyBB
El-Erian: As companies and investors painfully discovered in 2008, liquidity can be most elusive when you need it most.

How Larry Page’s Obsessions Became Google’s BusinessNYT

Horizontal HistoryWait But Why

Creative blocksAeon
The very laws of physics imply that artificial intelligence must be possible. What’s holding us up?

The Origin of the @ Symbol and the First Email MessageToday I Found Out

Alexander Litvinenko: the man who solved his own murder The Guardian

Quantum Links in Time and Space May Form the Universe’s FoundationWired

How to Construct the Ultimate Conspiracy TheoryWired
Tim Powers is one of the foremost practitioners of the secret history genre, in which real historical events are revealed to have surprising fictional explanations.

Why Robots Mean Interest Rates Could Go Even Lower In The FutureBB
Technology gains will hurt workers and boost productivity * Automation to put `a lid on' inflation, says UBS's Weber

The Sex MachineBoston Magazine
Jon Gross is having more sex than you. Way, waaaaay more sex, and with way more people’s spouses. So how exactly did this middle-aged New England plumbing-supplies salesman find the secret to free love, make friends with porn stars and multimillionaires, and become America’s king of swingers?

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks End Volatile Week With Another Gain

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Here’s What the Markets Will Be Watching This Week

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Rates recover with oil jump, risk sentiment drives rates – expect further recovery * Ifo to watch today * Fed to play its part on Wednesday * EUR safe haven unwind puts pressure on EUR/USD

Morning MarketsTF
What bear market? There was no sign of the creatures in Asia markets today with the jump in oil prices giving bourses around the region a welcome lift. Shares made good gains in Tokyo helped by speculation about Bank of Japan easing. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 even soared back above 5000 points.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Recovery Pauses in Europe

Daily ShotTF
Friday's stunning rally in crude oil prices lifted shares sharply and crude now drives much of the sentiment across markets. But overall market sentiment remains terrible and contrarian investors suggest that risk assets will climb a "wall of worry."

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Follow Open Europe’s #EUWargames live online * Sunday Times: UK on course to secure “safety mechanism” for non-euro member states * Britain considers taking in up to 3,000 unaccompanied young refugees already in Europe * Rajoy rejects mandate to form new Spanish government * Centre-right candidate triumphs in Portuguese presidential election * Belgium raises doubts about FTT plan * Italian Finance Minister warns on rules limiting banks holding of domestic sovereign debt

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Schengen’s last chance — Populist polls — Le Pen off-grid

Oil Slides Dragging Global Stocks, US Futures Lower, After Saudi Aramco Supply Comments


FX UpdateTF
It’s a big week for central banks again this week with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday the chief focus though the RBNZ meeting the same day is also important and there is some chance that the Bank of Japan makes a move at its Friday meeting.

From the FloorTF
The central-bank convergence narrative is being taken as gospel but the hope that this means the Fed will not hike more than once in 2016 could be an erroneous one.

Fedin vuoro piristää markkinatunnelmaa, korostaa inflaation merkitystä, kasvu hidastuu tilapäisesti * Raakaöljyn hinta nousi jyrkästi perjantaina Fed korostaa inflaation merkitystä

Välttäkäämme uutta liittovaltiokierrostaPeter Nyberg
Meneillään olevalla euroalueen pakolaiskriisillä ja euroalueen ongelmilla on vahva yhteinen syntyhistoria.

IL-kysely: Asenteet turvapaikanhakijoita kohtaan ovat koventuneetIL

Finland and Its Northern Peers in the Great RecessionETLA
The report focuses on the relative macroeconomic performance since the global financial crisis of six Northern European countries with a special emphasis on Finland. While fiscal and monetary policies have definitely impacted on macroeconomic outcomes in the six countries examined, as a whole they do not appear to be the key driving forces of the differences observed between the countries.

Jan Hurri: Taasko se alkaa? Riskiraha karkaa nyt Italian pankeista TalSa
Pääomaa pakenee Italian pankeista kuin varoituksena uudesta pankkikriisistä. Tästä varoituksesta on leikki kaukana, sillä Italian pankkiriskien ja velkamäärien rinnalla Kreikka oli alkulämmittelyä.

Pankkimies Suomen paluusta markkaanUusi Suomi
Sanna Ukkola: AatekauppiaatYLE

Uusi alku – Paavo Väyrynen
Väyrynen tekee pesäeroa puolueeseen – IS
Paavo Väyrynen ja lopun alku – Markku Huusko
Väyrynen kertoo hetkestä, jolloin hänellä kärähti pinna Sipilään –  IS
Väyrysen purkaus – ensimmäinen kritiikki omilta Sipilälle – IS
Väyrynen: Valta liberaaleilla ja lestadiolaisilla – IL

Vähittäiskauppa jouluk. +1.5% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen tuottajahinnat -0.3% Q4 YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden tuottajahinnat jouluk. -2.6% YoY – Tilastokeskus