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Wednesday, January 20

20th Jan - Bear continues

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Italy, Greece, Financials, European Stocks, Peripheral Bonds Plunge ZH

ECB Stimulus Is Working, Council Members Say Before MeetingBB
More ECB easing just a matter of timeABN AMRO

Poland Faces Barrage as Defiant Leaders Collide With EuropeBB
Poland's Planned Mortgage Conversion Is `Pure Evil,' Belka SaysBB

The Refugee Surge in Europe: Economic ChallengesIMF
Refugees to Provide Economic Boost to Europe, IMF Study Says – BB
Merkel faces rising Bavarian discontent on refugees – Politico
Cologne puts Germany’s ‘lying press’ on defensive – Politico
German president backs Merkel in rejecting limit on refugees – Politico
Austria caps refugee numbers – Politico
EU to shift refugee burden to northern statesFT
How the EU plans to overhaul ‘Dublin Regulation’ on asylum claims – FT
On scrapping the ‘first country of entry’ rule – Open Europe

Bridgewater's Dalio: Fed's next move toward QE, not tighteningCNBC

World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteranThe Telegraph
Exclusive: Situation worse than it was in 2007, says chairman of the OECD's review committee

Jan von Gerich: Don’t sell everythingNordea
The recent market turbulence has raised worries of something bigger brewing, especially as central banks are perceived to have only limited ammunition left to tackle another crisis. While equity market sell-offs can cause macroeconomic shocks, usually the direction goes the other way. It would be premature to conclude we are heading to another recession, and a mere stabilization of oil prices could be sufficient to turn risk appetite. Still, in the very short term, safe assets will prevail.

Amy Yuan Zhuang: China Outlook: Financial risks dominate this yearNordea
We have kept our GDP forecasts unchanged for 2016 and 2017. Despite the stock market double dip at the beginning of the year and renewed depreciation pressure on the CNY, the risk of an outright economic crisis in China is limited. Massive economic policy easing will prevent growth from sliding to sharply. Financial market instability will be the largest risk this year, as confidence in Beijing’s regulation capabilities is fading.

Helge J. Pedersen: Falling oil prices will not lead to global recessionNordea
Concern over the global growth outlook has led to a tough start in the financial markets in 2016. The stock markets have plunged and oil prices have continued the downward spiral that started in mid-2014 when the price was around USD 110/barrel. The price is now below USD 30/barrel, a low since 2003.

FX: Persistent market volatility should support funding currenciesPictet
The risks implied by the Fed’s tightening cycle and the new Chinese monetary regime, among other things, will favour funding currencies over carry currencies in the next twelve months.

Capital flight from China worse than thoughtFT
The flow of capital out of China and other emerging markets was significantly worse than previously thought in 2015, according to new estimates.

Charting the Markets: Global Stocks Sink to 2 1/2-Year Low BB
Japan enters a bear market, energy shares drop for a 4th day and flight to safety benefits U.K. gilts.

Saudi Arabia Said to Ban Betting Against Its CurrencyBB
Saudi Arabia Unleashes Capital Controls: Bans Bets Against Dollar PegZH

Oil's Nightmare Scenario Dominates DavosBB
Glencore, UBS and IEA don't expect recovery any time soon * Industry faces new scenario: `a lot lower for a lot longer'

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
Bank Gloom and Trading Insights

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Rise, Barely

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Tuesday’s ‘Rally’ Didn’t Take the Pressure Off

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Oil keeps crashing, no appetite for risk, even though China could ease * US CPI inflation to take another step upwards * Risk appetite gone in the wind * China could expand stimulus

Morning MarketsTF
GBPUSD hit a seven-year low overnight and is now in reach of a key psychological barrier at 1.40. The IMF helped propel Asian equities towards a hideous session after it downgraded global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 on the back of China woes and the ongoing rout of oil.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Markets Resume New Year Slide

Daily ShotTF
Emerging Markets currencies have been hit by a relentless selloff amid a broad shift to risk aversion across asset classes. Currencies including the Mexican peso the Indian rupee and others have been hit hard. Meanwhile the US dollar continues to rally posing the question of whether the Federal Reserve is looking back at its December rate hike with regret.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
European Commission to propose scrapping rule allowing EU member states to return asylum seekers to first country of entry * MEPs warn billions of EU aid spending mismanaged * Polish Prime Minister defends controversial domestic reforms in front of MEPs * Merkel to face cold reception from Bavarian sister party over her refugee policies * Support for Merkel and her party continues to slide in wake of continuing migration crisis * Polish Finance Minister says joining the euro is not a priority * Varoufakis claims Germany blocked Chinese investment into Greece * IMF warns tide of refugees is testing EU’s political systems * Cameron calls for EU to relax trade rules with Jordan to help Syrian refugees

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Davos Special Edition — EU ambassador musical chairs

Markets In TurmOIL: Futures Plunge, Japan Enters Bear Market, Crude And Commodity Currencies Crash


FX UpdateTF
Failure to stage a rally in major asset markets ahead of key support levels overnight raises the risk that markets could lurch into full deleveraging mode with further carnage in JPY crosses and the other usual suspects. So it’s stand or fall today for risk appetite.

From the FloorTF
John J Hardy Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy kicks off the European session with the starkest of warnings: "This is no time to be a hero. There's further risk of market meltdown. The position is pretty scary across asset classes."

Riksbank tienristeyksessä * USA:n inflaatio hivuttautuu ylöspäin * Saksan rahoitusmarkkinoiden luottamus heikkeni * Brasilian keskuspankki kiristää rahapolitiikkaa tänään

IMF: Pakolaiskriisin hintalappu Suomelle EU:n korkeimpia – TE
Elo: Suomen irtauduttava Schengen-alueesta – Verkkouutiset
Rydman: Komission suunnitelmat nakertavat EU:n uskottavuutta – Verkkouutiset