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EUROPE
Oil prices mean negative inflation before long –
and more easing from the ECB – Nordea
In our baseline
forecast, we expect oil prices and the Euro-area inflation to pick up and the
ECB to refrain from further policy easing. However, the outlook for inflation
is highly uncertain. If oil prices remain at current levels, the inflation rate
will fall back below zero during Q1. In this case, the ECB would not just watch
and hope for the best. Aside from a further cut in the deposit rate, the ECB
would probably buy assets more aggressively. Read more in our scenario
analysis.
UNITED STATES
DECEMBER PAYROLLS
US Growth Accelerates,
Dollar Advances – Marc
Chandler
292,000 Jobs, 5.0%
Unemployment Rate – Bill
McBride
US recession fears
premature – Nordea
Payrolls surge in boost
to economic outlook – Reuters
Payrolls Surge, U.S.
Jobless Rate at 5% as Workforce Grows – BB
December Jobs Report –
The Numbers – WSJ
The December Jobs Report
in 14 Charts – WSJ
US employment is up,
wages are static. Ring any bells? – The
Guardian
Economists React:
‘Employment Growth Still Looks Strong’ – WSJ
Jobs + 292K, But Average
Wages Post First Drop Since 2014 – ZH
OTHER
Strategy 2016: Five reasons to buy JPY in 2016 – Nordea
There is more to the JPY
outlook than the BoJ. Improving foreign balances, funding competition, Asian
risks... just some of the factors that may force a stronger JPY in 2016.
The End of the Monetary Illusion Magnifies
Shocks for Markets – BB
Central banks no longer
have as much room to deliver stimulus * HSBC says currencies most sensitive to
policy in 15 years
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Continue the Global
Selloff
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Why the Market Might Shrug at the
Jobs Report
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
US payrolls today * Will removal of
Chinese circuit breakers alone lift markets? * The Danish central bank hikes
after massive reserve currency reductions in December
Morning Markets – TF
Beijing's not enjoyed this ugly week
on markets and has ditched those much-maligned circuit breakers. It could make
for an extremely interesting Monday if the six-month lockdown on institutional
sales on mainland markets is lifted as planned.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Markets Calm Ahead of US Jobs Data
Global Daily
– ABN
AMRO
China fears continue to weigh on
markets but Eurozone activity data beat expectations * The Chinese authorities
suspended the stock circuit breaker * Eurozone economic sentiment and the
composite PMI rose in the final months of 2015, while unemployment fell …and
German factory orders jumped higher
Daily Shot – TF
China's currency
weakening equity market plunge and attempts to stabilise share prices with
"circuit breakers" have knocked other stock markets currencies and
commodity prices. The Chinese plunge has also lowered odds of a spring US
interest rate hike.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Hungary signals
willingness to find solution to UK demands on access to welfare * Die Welt:
Brexit would be “fatal” for the EU * Poland pushes ahead with controversial new
law to replace heads of public media outlets * Refugee debate sours with
reports that asylum seekers were amongst Cologne sex-attackers * Timmermans:
“We are a long way from being satisfied” with results of EU-Turkey migrant deal
* Number of EU migrants on unemployment benefits in Germany rises as Cameron
finds support in Bavaria * Dijsselbloem: First review of third Greek bailout
will take “months rather than weeks” * Spanish Socialist leader will try to
muster “progressive” coalition if Rajoy fails to form government * ECB under
fire for allowing Portugal to bail-in certain senior bank bonds without warning
* The Economist calls for scrapping of six-month rotating EU presidency
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Frau Merkel invited me —
Dutch pragmatism — People or parasites?
US Open – ZH
Markets Spooked After China Central
Bank Announces More Rate Liberalization, Yuan Internationalization
Frontrunning – ZH
China has loomed large
lately this week occupying most of the market’s attention bandwidth. Today we
watch whether the US jobs report can steal the spotlight and bring the focus
back to incoming data and the US Federal Reserve.
China's crazy week has
come to a close with a suite of state interventions finally pushing the Shanghai
and Shenzhen indicies into the green. The move is boosting both risk sentiment
and investor confidence but several high-profile investors say the present
conditions resemble the run-up to a crisis.
FINNISH
Keskuspankki
ei halua aiheuttaa uutta romahdusta, mutta vahinkoja sattuu * Kiina luopui
osakemarkkinoiden sulkumekanismista * Kiinan valuuttavaranto jatkoi
supistumistaan * Työpaikkojen määrä ja palkat kasvavat vakaasti USA:ssa