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Oil prices mean negative inflation before long – and more easing from the ECB – Nordea
In our baseline forecast, we expect oil prices and the Euro-area inflation to pick up and the ECB to refrain from further policy easing. However, the outlook for inflation is highly uncertain. If oil prices remain at current levels, the inflation rate will fall back below zero during Q1. In this case, the ECB would not just watch and hope for the best. Aside from a further cut in the deposit rate, the ECB would probably buy assets more aggressively. Read more in our scenario analysis.
US Growth Accelerates, Dollar Advances – Marc Chandler
292,000 Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate – Bill McBride
US recession fears premature – Nordea
Payrolls surge in boost to economic outlook – Reuters
Payrolls Surge, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5% as Workforce Grows – BB
December Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
The December Jobs Report in 14 Charts – WSJ
US employment is up, wages are static. Ring any bells? – The Guardian
Economists React: ‘Employment Growth Still Looks Strong’ – WSJ
Jobs + 292K, But Average Wages Post First Drop Since 2014 – ZH
Strategy 2016: Five reasons to buy JPY in 2016 – Nordea
There is more to the JPY outlook than the BoJ. Improving foreign balances, funding competition, Asian risks... just some of the factors that may force a stronger JPY in 2016.
The End of the Monetary Illusion Magnifies Shocks for Markets – BB
Central banks no longer have as much room to deliver stimulus * HSBC says currencies most sensitive to policy in 15 years
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Continue the Global Selloff
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Why the Market Might Shrug at the Jobs Report
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
US payrolls today * Will removal of Chinese circuit breakers alone lift markets? * The Danish central bank hikes after massive reserve currency reductions in December
Morning Markets – TF
Beijing's not enjoyed this ugly week on markets and has ditched those much-maligned circuit breakers. It could make for an extremely interesting Monday if the six-month lockdown on institutional sales on mainland markets is lifted as planned.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Markets Calm Ahead of US Jobs Data
Global Daily – ABN AMRO
China fears continue to weigh on markets but Eurozone activity data beat expectations * The Chinese authorities suspended the stock circuit breaker * Eurozone economic sentiment and the composite PMI rose in the final months of 2015, while unemployment fell …and German factory orders jumped higher
Daily Shot – TF
China's currency weakening equity market plunge and attempts to stabilise share prices with "circuit breakers" have knocked other stock markets currencies and commodity prices. The Chinese plunge has also lowered odds of a spring US interest rate hike.
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Hungary signals willingness to find solution to UK demands on access to welfare * Die Welt: Brexit would be “fatal” for the EU * Poland pushes ahead with controversial new law to replace heads of public media outlets * Refugee debate sours with reports that asylum seekers were amongst Cologne sex-attackers * Timmermans: “We are a long way from being satisfied” with results of EU-Turkey migrant deal * Number of EU migrants on unemployment benefits in Germany rises as Cameron finds support in Bavaria * Dijsselbloem: First review of third Greek bailout will take “months rather than weeks” * Spanish Socialist leader will try to muster “progressive” coalition if Rajoy fails to form government * ECB under fire for allowing Portugal to bail-in certain senior bank bonds without warning * The Economist calls for scrapping of six-month rotating EU presidency
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Frau Merkel invited me — Dutch pragmatism — People or parasites?
US Open – ZH
Markets Spooked After China Central Bank Announces More Rate Liberalization, Yuan Internationalization
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
China has loomed large lately this week occupying most of the market’s attention bandwidth. Today we watch whether the US jobs report can steal the spotlight and bring the focus back to incoming data and the US Federal Reserve.
From the Floor – TF
China's crazy week has come to a close with a suite of state interventions finally pushing the Shanghai and Shenzhen indicies into the green. The move is boosting both risk sentiment and investor confidence but several high-profile investors say the present conditions resemble the run-up to a crisis.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Keskuspankki ei halua aiheuttaa uutta romahdusta, mutta vahinkoja sattuu * Kiina luopui osakemarkkinoiden sulkumekanismista * Kiinan valuuttavaranto jatkoi supistumistaan * Työpaikkojen määrä ja palkat kasvavat vakaasti USA:ssa