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Thursday, January 7

7th Jan - Hard bear day & EURUSD jumps

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Nordic Outlook - January 2016Danske Bank
Denmark: GDP growth disappointed in 2015 but the outlook for the coming years is slightly brighter Sweden: Despite strong GDP growth, low inflation is likely to prompt further monetary easing Norway: Slowdown in the oil industry has been offset by public and consumer spending
Finland: Economy to stop contracting but not likely to recover much in 2016

Strategy 2016: BoE too late?Nordea
Brexit is named one of the biggest risks for GBP in 2016 - but it may turn out a bigger risk for the EUR, so bet on lower EUR/GBP on Brexit scenario. Position for a stronger GBP in H1 as the BoE-Fed pricing to converge. Biggest risk for GBP is BoE "behind the curve" due to housing market and external balances.

EU Commission should be wary of intervening in Polish domestic politicsOpen Europe

Cameron upbeat but poll shows Britons tilting toward leaving EUReuters

EU Is Temporarily Closed Until Solidarity Returns – euinside
EU aid to Turkey fails to stem migrant flow – FT

Despite Inflation Unease, Fed Still Talks Big On RatesTim Duy
Financial markets are stumbling into the new year. The Fed is sticking to its story. Given that January is off the table for a rate hike, we have two and a half months of data - including three employment reports! - to see if the Fed has it right this time.

The Fed's New Dashboard Is All About InflationBB
Officials mentioned five measures in their December minutes

Minutes: Concern about low inflation led to a ‘close call’ WaPo

Not all members as confident as Yellen despite the unanimous hikeDanske Bank

5 Things to Watch in the December Jobs Report – WSJ
US Jobs preview: More support to rate hike expectations – Nordea
U.S. Jobs Data Take on Added Importance With Markets in Turmoil – BB

Possible Head and Shoulders in Dollar-YenMarc Chandler

China: Q&A on the on-going market carnageNordea
Barely six months after the last round of financial market turmoil in China, the market is getting another rollercoaster ride. After just four trading days in 2016, the Chinese stock market has fallen 12% and the CNH lost 2% vs. the USD. We see panic selloffs and lack of consistent and transparent policy regulation as the main triggers rather than a looming economic hard landing. More intervention is expected from Beijing but the volatility could remain for days or weeks.

George Soros Sees Crisis in Global Markets That Echoes 2008BB
Soros: It's the 2008 crisis all over againCNBC
Is this really 2008 all over again?The Economist

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Hit by Global Fears

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
China Rattles Markets Around the Globe

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Lower Chinese equities, weaker CNY, lower oil prices… Just another day in 2016 * Another bad day in China * Risk-off with geopolitical risks sending yields lower * Record-low oil prices burden NOK further

Morning MarketsTF
Trading across all Chinese equity markets was halted less that 30 minutes after today’s open in an unnerving replay of last August’s market meltdown. The plunge has jolted global markets into a deep state of risk aversion and bolstered safe-haven assets such as gold the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Is it Too Early To Talk about Annus Horribilis?

Global Daily – Low inflation worries FedABN AMRO
Labour market remains the shining star in US economy * Other indicators suggest US economy is slowing * FOMC minutes: Fed needs to see confirmation that inflation will actually rise before additional rate increases * Gradual pace of rate hikes most appropriate strategy for Fed

Daily ShotTF
Global markets were rattled by the People's Bank of China's weakening of the yuan on Thursday by the most since the crisis of August last year in a bid to stimulate growth as the economy stalls. The bank's action spooked world markets sending the S&P 500 crude oil and currencies exposed to China sharply lower.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron appeals to German Chancellor and public in bid to secure support from ‘key ally’ * Banks warn of Brexit disruption but suggest it might not be the end of the UK as an international financial centre * Sarkozy: Some EU powers must return to member states * ORB poll finds 7 point lead for UK leaving the EU, though over 20% of voters say they are undecided * Merkel’s sister party calls for a “complete U-turn” on refugee policy * Irish Taoiseach claims Brexit may cause border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic to return * Former Italian PM: Europe must be changed, not destroyed in the name of easy votes * Catalan separatist parties hold one last meeting to try and avoid re-run regional elections * Asylum claims in UK hit largest number on record * EU and US splits over securitisation concern investors

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Commission on tour — Cameron in Budapest — Refugee goldrush

Global Stocks Crash After Spiraling Chinese Devaluation Unleashes Worldwide Chaos And Selling


FX UpdateTF
Another meltdown in China overnight after a weak session yesterday for US equities has risk appetite on the defensive after neither US data nor the FOMC minutes made an impression. This has seen USDJPY push on the key 118.00 area and EURUSD interacting with 1.0800 overnight.

From the FloorTF
The word "crisis" is back in vogue as China's economic woes spread carnage and fears of contagion across markets on Thursday. Another steep plunge in Chinese stocks triggered a trading halt and currency intervention by China's central bank while a further slide in oil prices heightened the sense of crisis.

Riksbank joutuu interventioimaan valuuttamarkkinoilla * Kiinan pörssit ehtivät olla torstaina avoinna vain puoli tuntia * Kiina-huolet painavat öljyn hintaa * Euroalueen inflaatio pysytteli ennallaan

Suomen synkkä tulevaisuus (7) Sisäinen devalvaatio Osmo Soininvaara