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Friday, January 15

15th Jan - Week ends with a sell-off

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Benoît Cœuré: Rebalancing in the euro area: are we nearly there yet?ECB

ECB preview: Willing and able, but not readyNordea
The ECB remains willing and able to act, but will not be in any rush to do so at the January meeting. Despite the plunged oil prices, longer-term inflation expectations have not fallen to new lows. The door will be left wide open for more measures at the March meeting, but no firm signals about imminent easing are likely to be in store. There is a risk Draghi will use too much time on justifying how much the ECB is already doing, and thus cause a small rise in bond yields and the euro.

Juncker ‘not going to give up on Schengen’Politico

5 reasons Germany’s influence is fadingPolitico

Brussels Briefing: Is Angela Merkel in trouble?FT

Zloty Tumbles as Polish Bonds Slide on S&P CutBB

So You Think A Recession Is Imminent, Yield Curve EditionTim Duy
Don't discount the yield curve just yet. I think it is signaling something important about the limits of monetary policy "normalization." But it is also a signal that recession concerns are overblown. Even in a zero short rate world, the long end needs to plunge much deeper before the yield curve becomes a concern.

The 2010 FOMC transcripts are outFT
Retail Sales decreased 0.1% in December – Bill McBride
December core retail sales disappoint – Pictet
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in December – Bill McBride
Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.3 – Bill McBride
Raft of weak U.S. data points to sharply slower growth – Reuters
Economic Growth in U.S. Cracking Under Strain of Global Slowdown – BB

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Turn Higher

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Nervousness rules, equities and oil lower again * Today focus on US retail sales and industrial production * US short rates drop to December lows * EUR bid as ECB casts doubt over inflation measures

Morning MarketsTF
Asian equities opened with a hop and a skip in their step spurred by the US equities rally but that soon gave way after a tepid oil rally reversed and China disappointed again with yet more poor data.

Daily ShotTF
In China the offshore-onshore yuan spread widens again and the question is whether Beijing will react to that. Low commodity prices are a big challenge in countries like Peru. India suffers as capital outflows increased as global risk aversion worsened.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Osborne sees “essential pieces” of renegotiation falling into place and warns EU referendum is “crucial decision of our lifetimes” * Commission official suggests February summit could be decisive in securing UK-EU deal * The Sun calls on Theresa May to lead Brexit campaign * Wilders: Brexit would create ‘enormous incentive’ for others to follow * EU Home Affairs Commissioner: Refugee relocation scheme has not delivered the expected results * Reuters: ECB governing council members don’t see further ECB easing in near future * Merkel under pressure from her party to raise issue of prolonged low rates with ECB * German Constitutional Court to hold second hearing into legality of ECB OMT on 16 February * Eurozone and Greece confirm IMF to remain involved in Greek bailout

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Poles to Parliament — Refugee policy fails — Davos preview

Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted


FX UpdateTF

From the FloorTF
Worries about China's economic health and the protracted weakness in crude oil prices remain the two most potent forces at play in the world's financial markets. Once again their pernicious influence has dragged Asian and European equities lower hobbled forex and propelled vols to new levels of fear.

Kaksi hutia riittää taivuttamaan Riksbankin * Öljyn hinnanlasku tasaantui eilen * EKP:n sisällä erimielisyyksiä elvytyksen suuruudesta * USA:n vähittäismyynti ja teollisuustuotanto julkaistaan tänään