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Tuesday, January 12

12th Jan - Second day of rally

Previously on MoreLiver’s:


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Has the euro been a failure? CER
November’s conference, which brought together 50 leading economists, considered whether the euro was a failure. A host of questions were debated.

Angela Merkel: Europe is vulnerable in refugee crisisPolitico

Understanding EuroscepticismEuropp
How British hostility to the EU contrasts with opposition elsewhere in Europe

Jan von Gerich: Finland: Forget Fixit, rather fix itNordea
There has been a row of misunderstandings circulating about the stance of Finland towards the euro and a possible referendum on whether Finland should leave the euro. Finland is not about to leave the euro, nor is a referendum on the Finnish membership about to take place. While the Finnish economy is suffering inside the currency union, the Finnish people realize an exit would be a risky jump into the unknown.

Strategy 2016 Sweden: Riksbank's finger glued to the triggerNordea
Swedish growth will continue to outperform peers. Inflation will stay below target. The Riksbank shocked markets by warning about FX intervention at a quite weak SEK level. We think the fear factor will keep SEK within the comfort zone and there will be no Riksbank action. But risks are tilted towards FX interventions and some additional rate cut. Should the Riksbank need to intervene, we expect it to be on an ad hoc basis and that it first will dip its toes, rather than go for the full bazooka.

Euro-area Outlook: Recovery set to continue while politics get messierNordea
Conditions are in place for continued recovery in 2016/17, mainly driven by private consumption. The ECB will keep driving with a heavy foot on the gas pedal (although traction is limited) and fiscal policy turns slightly expansionary. One major risk is weaker demand from Emerging Markets. And then there is politics: reformers are facing headwinds and the EU is struggling to find common answers to current challenges.
Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Buck the Selloff

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Market Bulls Look to Earnings for a Lift

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

PBoC goes nuclear, Fed officials upbeat, markets price ~1.5 Fed hike * PBoC intervening heavily, closing CNY-CNH gap * Oil prices continue their descent * Fed officials sounding fairly optimistic

Morning MarketsTF
It was a mixed picture in Asian markets today. There was no repeat share rout in China which brought widespread relief. China's equities even regained a little of the ground lost during recent falls. However China-driven anxiety and commodity weakness still weighed on sentiment in Hong Kong Tokyo and Sydney with equities down on all three bourses.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Sterling's Slide Extended on Dismal Industrial Output Figures

Global Daily – Brexit risk premium still to buildABN AMRO
Brexit risks are set to come more in focus in markets * Prime Minister Cameron has hinted at referendum in H2 * A vote for Brexit seems a higher risk than commonly judged * Sterling has weakened significantly against the dollar…but this reflects rate spreads, with the Brexit premium still to come

Daily ShotTF
China remains in the center of attention. e PBoC has once again intervened in the currency markets and it seems that Beijing is unhappy about the recent capital outflows declining FX reserves and its inability to depreciate the currency in an orderly fashion.

Futures Jump After Oil Rebounds From 11 Year Low On Turkish Terrorist Attack


FX UpdateTF

From the FloorTF
The narrative is beginning to shift from 'if' to 'when' and while we are not there yet a slide to $20/barrel oil is looking increasingly on the cards.

Korot 2016: Perusta näkemyksesi EKP:n osto-ohjelmaan * Kiinan keskuspankki rajoittaa juanin heikkenemistä * Pelot Kiinan ympärillä hellittivät maanantaina * Ensi yönä julkaistaan tiedot Kiinan ulkomaankaupasta