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Two Months to Europe's Suicide – euinside
Up until a year ago it was taboo to even think it was possible that a country should leave the euro area, while in the last week alone so much was said about a possible death of the European Union that there is even an exact date set. The Union has two more months to live.
EUR rates: No limits to negative rates? – Nordea
Draghi’s signals yesterday confirm that more easing will be in store, which should ensure short rates will fall even deeper into negative territory and stay there for a long time. We see less downside potential in longer yields, but expect also long yields to stay at even more depressed levels throughout our forecast horizon, with only a minor rise towards the end of 2017.
Four Fed Rate Increases in 2016? Its Peers Say No – View / BB
Markets out of sync with the US economy – Nordea
Recent market developments are difficult to reconcile with the fact that the fundamentals of the US economy remain solid. The message from our favourite leading indicators is that there is virtually no chance of a recession in 2016. However, acknowledging that economic downturns are notoriously hard to predict, we highlight in this note what we would need to see in terms of data to change our call and predict a US recession.
Steen's Chronicle: Excuses change nothing but everyone feels better – TF
What a lousy start to the year – two years of gains annihilated within three weeks. Everybody is in a tizzy about China but that isn't what they should be worried about.....
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Draghi, Oil Give Markets a Boost
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Without a Recession, Stocks Should Recover
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Draghi surprises changing sentiment, equities rebound with oil, EUR lower with Bunds * We expect ECB to cut rates and increase PSPP buying in March * Draghi sends euro yields tumbling, scarcity issues to re-emerge * EUR plummets on dovish Draghi
Morning Markets – TF
ECB president Mario Draghi helped kick start Asian equities into action overnight and with oil also rallying risk-on seems to be back in vogue for today at least.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Collective Sigh of Relief Ahead of the Weekend
Daily Shot – TF
Major stock markets as well as the oil price bounced back after the ECB's press conference yesterday. However crude oil which is now the key driver behind equity and credit markers is still priced at only about $30/barrel and the near-term fundamentals behind WTI remain terrible.
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Cameron not in a hurry to secure deal with EU but calls on business to back him when he does *
French PM: Refugee crisis puts the “very idea of Europe” in question * Ireland to oppose scrapping ‘Dublin’ asylum seeker rules * Polish nationalist party initiates campaign for referendum on taking in refugees * Polish Defence Minister claims UK will permanently post 1,000 troops in Poland * War of words between Italy and European Commission continues * Draghi gives strong hint of further ECB stimulus in March * IMF calls for pension cuts and debt relief in Greece, issuing a challenge to all sides * Commission to launch crack down on corporate tax avoidance
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Austria’s tough decision — Merkel isolation — What Cameron wants
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Surge, Oil Soars As Hopes For Central Bank Stimulus Return
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
We are seeing a wobbly attempt at a comeback in risk appetite after a very dovish ECB performance yesterday and fresh noise on BoJ easing potential overnight but so far the bounce has underwhelmed and there is a lot more wood to chop before we can call this a full comeback in risk sentiment.
From the Floor – TF
Yesterday's European Central bank meeting has lit a fire under global sentiment with traders expecting new stimulus measures to prop up a very soft year (so far) in risky assets.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB
Gladiators, Blockchains and Structured CDs
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
EKP:lta 10+10-elvytys sekä maalis- että kesäkuussa * Riskinottohalukkuus nousussa Draghin puheiden jälkeen * Euroalueen luottamusluvut viittaavat kohtuulliseen kasvuun