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Monday, January 18

18th Jan - Scared open ahead ECB

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Russia accused of clandestine funding of European parties as US conducts major review of Vladimir Putin's strategyThe Telegraph
Exclusive: UK warns of "new Cold War" as Kremlin seeks to divide and rule in Europe

Finland: Pickup offered – and desperately neededNordea

Germany Economic Update: Domestic strength, external headwindsNordea

Forget Basel IV: Bundesbank Says Beware of Banks' Sovereign RiskBB
Banks need regulatory certainty, board member Dombret says * Sovereign risk is key open question in closing crisis chapter

Italy bank stocks plunge, brokers say prepare for tough 2016Reuters
Italian Banks Collapse, Short Sales Banned As Loan Loss Fears MountZH

Poland's Flirtation With `Dark Side' Aired in EU-Warsaw Clash BB

Austria suspends Schengen: Tighter border controls since SaturdayPolitico
End of Europe? Berlin, Brussels' shock tactic on migrantsReuters

Norway: "We're In A Crisis Now, We Can't Deny That"ZH

ECB Mulls Steps To Solve "Non-Existent" Bond Scarcity ProblemZH
ECB preview: May have no choice but to act again by the SpringPictet

Cameron: Britain should be a ‘2nd-tier’ memberPolitico
A Possible Decision on BRExit at February EU Summiteuinside

2010 FOMC Laugh Track: Jokes About an Uncertain UpturnWSJ

Paul Krugman: Oil Goes NonlinearNYT

Latest memo from Howard Marks: On the Couch Oaktree Capital

The Time for ValueEuclidean
We believe that now is a very attractive time to invest in value strategies. Following similar times in the past, value investors achieved both strong absolute returns and robust relative performance versus the broad market indexes.

Everyone is a Closet TechnicianJoshua Brown

"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS ExplainsZH

FX Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Living with lower oil and a weaker China

Martin Enlund: FX: what if a US recession?Nordea
The start of the year has been troublesome for many investors, and fears of a US recession have been on the rise. Conventional recession indicators such as the yield curve are not indicative of a new recession any time soon, nor do we think a US recession is brewing. Even so, we took a look at what normally happens during US recessions.

Aurelija Augulyte: FX: breaking badNordea
Deflation fears rise as the oil dropped over 20% so far this year. Still, don't underestimate inflation risks later this year - negative only if coupled with US recession. ECB optimism and China growth data could help the riskiest FX this week.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
The Bad Start to Year Keeps Getting Worse

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Continued risk-off mood, lift of sanctions on Iran send oil prices lower, Chinese GDP ahead * US manufacturing sector in recession * US 10-year breaks through 2% intraday * EUR/USD higher on disappointing US retail sales

Morning MarketsTF
Iran's return to global markets following the lifting of trade sanctions against it on Sunday has exacerbated worries about the world oil glut and sent the commodity spinning to new record lows. Sentiment overall is risk-off and bearish and there really isn't any economic data of note.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Trying to Get One's Bearings

Daily ShotTF
Stock markets and crude oil plummeted on Friday and betting against the US Federal Reserve's interest rate forecast gained momentum after worse-than-expected US industrial production capacity utilisation and New York manufacturing reports. With oil at historic lows market-based inflation expectations have fallen. The implied probability of four or more US rate hikes in 2016 dropped to less than 1% and the probability of no hikes at all this year doubled in just two days.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Several EU states consider adopting UK’s reforms on migrants’ access to benefits * Cameron preparing legislation to make it "even clearer to people that our Parliament is sovereign" * Austria suspends Schengen agreement as Schäuble suggests EU petrol-tax to fund refugee crisis response * New European Parliament report finds half of EU’s £23bn EU aid budget has not been used properly * S&P downgrades Poland’s credit rating over erosion of independence of public institutions * 61% of Spanish voters want to see a government formed while only 33% favour fresh elections * Dutch referendum campaigners threaten legal action over EU-Ukraine Association Agreement * Greece signs deal on tax evasion with German state * Commission highlights potential anti-trust cases on firms’ use of big data * Trade associations warn of “enormous” consequences if US and EU fail to reach deal on data transfers * ECB questions banks over bad loans * Plans to meet EU energy targets could see rise in petrol costs

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Iran plans — Poland’s push — Migration measures

Equity Futures Rise After Oil Rebounds From 12 Year Lows; US Markets Closed

FX UpdateTF
We have a staggered start to what should prove another nervous week for global markets as US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday today.

From the FloorTF
The lifting of sanctions on Iran has led to yet another devastating session for oil with Brent taking the full brunt of yet another tick in the supply side of the fundamentals equation.

Puhuuko Draghi korot nousuun? * Tällä viikolla tiedossa EKP:n kokous ja USA:n inflaatioluvut * Öljyn hinta painui 30 dollarin alapuolelle * USA:n vähittäismyynti ja teollisuustuotanto supistuivat joulukuussa

Öljy, osakkeet ja talouskasvuRoger Wessman

Erkki Liikanen: Miten Suomi pelastetaan?IS
Euroalueella talouskasvu on ollut vahvaa, mutta Suomi on yhä vaikeuksissa. Nyt tarvitaan yhteistä näkemystä ja luottamukseen perustuvaa yrityskohtaista sopimista, kirjoittaa Suomen Pankin pääjohtaja Erkki Liikanen.

Markus Haavio: Pitkän hitaan kasvun ajan kolme selittäjääSuomen Pankki

Week AheadMarc Chandler
What Will It Take to Stabilize the Capital Markets?