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EUROPE
Russia accused of clandestine funding of
European parties as US conducts major review of Vladimir Putin's strategy – The Telegraph
Exclusive: UK warns of
"new Cold War" as Kremlin seeks to divide and rule in Europe
Finland: Pickup offered – and desperately needed – Nordea
Germany Economic Update: Domestic strength,
external headwinds – Nordea
Forget Basel IV: Bundesbank Says Beware of
Banks' Sovereign Risk – BB
Banks need regulatory
certainty, board member Dombret says * Sovereign risk is key open question in
closing crisis chapter
Italy bank stocks plunge, brokers say prepare
for tough 2016 – Reuters
Italian Banks Collapse, Short Sales Banned As
Loan Loss Fears Mount – ZH
Poland's Flirtation With `Dark Side' Aired in
EU-Warsaw Clash – BB
Austria suspends Schengen: Tighter border
controls since Saturday
– Politico
End of Europe? Berlin, Brussels' shock tactic on
migrants – Reuters
ECB Mulls Steps To Solve
"Non-Existent" Bond Scarcity Problem – ZH
ECB preview: May have no choice but to act again
by the Spring – Pictet
Cameron: Britain should be a ‘2nd-tier’ member – Politico
UNITED STATES
OTHER
We
believe that now is a very attractive time to invest in value strategies.
Following similar times in the past, value investors achieved both strong
absolute returns and robust relative performance versus the broad market
indexes.
Everyone is a Closet Technician – Joshua
Brown
FX Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Living with lower oil
and a weaker China
Martin Enlund: FX: what if a US recession? – Nordea
The start of the year
has been troublesome for many investors, and fears of a US recession have been
on the rise. Conventional recession indicators such as the yield curve are not
indicative of a new recession any time soon, nor do we think a US recession is
brewing. Even so, we took a look at what normally happens during US recessions.
Aurelija Augulyte: FX: breaking bad – Nordea
Deflation fears rise as
the oil dropped over 20% so far this year. Still, don't underestimate inflation
risks later this year - negative only if coupled with US recession. ECB
optimism and China growth data could help the riskiest FX this week.
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
The Bad Start to Year Keeps Getting
Worse
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Continued risk-off mood, lift of
sanctions on Iran send oil prices lower, Chinese GDP ahead * US manufacturing
sector in recession * US 10-year breaks through 2% intraday * EUR/USD higher on
disappointing US retail sales
Morning Markets – TF
Iran's return to global markets
following the lifting of trade sanctions against it on Sunday has exacerbated
worries about the world oil glut and sent the commodity spinning to new record
lows. Sentiment overall is risk-off and bearish and there really isn't any
economic data of note.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Trying to Get One's Bearings
Daily Shot – TF
Stock markets and crude
oil plummeted on Friday and betting against the US Federal Reserve's interest
rate forecast gained momentum after worse-than-expected US industrial
production capacity utilisation and New York manufacturing reports. With oil at
historic lows market-based inflation expectations have fallen. The implied
probability of four or more US rate hikes in 2016 dropped to less than 1% and
the probability of no hikes at all this year doubled in just two days.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Several EU states consider adopting
UK’s reforms on migrants’ access to benefits * Cameron preparing legislation to
make it "even clearer to people that our Parliament is sovereign" * Austria
suspends Schengen agreement as Schäuble suggests EU petrol-tax to fund refugee
crisis response * New European Parliament report finds half of EU’s £23bn EU
aid budget has not been used properly * S&P downgrades Poland’s credit
rating over erosion of independence of public institutions * 61% of Spanish
voters want to see a government formed while only 33% favour fresh elections * Dutch
referendum campaigners threaten legal action over EU-Ukraine Association
Agreement * Greece signs deal on tax evasion with German state * Commission
highlights potential anti-trust cases on firms’ use of big data * Trade
associations warn of “enormous” consequences if US and EU fail to reach deal on
data transfers * ECB questions banks over bad loans * Plans to meet EU energy
targets could see rise in petrol costs
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Iran plans — Poland’s push —
Migration measures
US Open – ZH
Equity Futures Rise After Oil
Rebounds From 12 Year Lows; US Markets Closed
We have a staggered
start to what should prove another nervous week for global markets as US
markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday today.
The lifting of sanctions
on Iran has led to yet another devastating session for oil with Brent taking
the full brunt of yet another tick in the supply side of the fundamentals
equation.
FINNISH
Puhuuko
Draghi korot nousuun? * Tällä viikolla tiedossa EKP:n kokous ja USA:n
inflaatioluvut * Öljyn hinta painui 30 dollarin alapuolelle * USA:n
vähittäismyynti ja teollisuustuotanto supistuivat joulukuussa
Öljy, osakkeet ja
talouskasvu – Roger
Wessman
Erkki Liikanen: Miten Suomi
pelastetaan? – IS
Euroalueella
talouskasvu on ollut vahvaa, mutta Suomi on yhä vaikeuksissa. Nyt tarvitaan
yhteistä näkemystä ja luottamukseen perustuvaa yrityskohtaista sopimista,
kirjoittaa Suomen Pankin pääjohtaja Erkki Liikanen.
Markus Haavio: Pitkän hitaan kasvun ajan kolme selittäjää – Suomen
Pankki
Week Ahead – Marc
Chandler
What Will It Take to
Stabilize the Capital Markets?