Previously on MoreLiver’s:
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Russia accused of clandestine funding of European parties as US conducts major review of Vladimir Putin's strategy – The Telegraph
Exclusive: UK warns of "new Cold War" as Kremlin seeks to divide and rule in Europe
Finland: Pickup offered – and desperately needed – Nordea
Germany Economic Update: Domestic strength, external headwinds – Nordea
Forget Basel IV: Bundesbank Says Beware of Banks' Sovereign Risk – BB
Banks need regulatory certainty, board member Dombret says * Sovereign risk is key open question in closing crisis chapter
Italy bank stocks plunge, brokers say prepare for tough 2016 – Reuters
Italian Banks Collapse, Short Sales Banned As Loan Loss Fears Mount – ZH
Poland's Flirtation With `Dark Side' Aired in EU-Warsaw Clash – BB
Austria suspends Schengen: Tighter border controls since Saturday – Politico
End of Europe? Berlin, Brussels' shock tactic on migrants – Reuters
Norway: "We're In A Crisis Now, We Can't Deny That" – ZH
ECB Mulls Steps To Solve "Non-Existent" Bond Scarcity Problem – ZH
ECB preview: May have no choice but to act again by the Spring – Pictet
Cameron: Britain should be a ‘2nd-tier’ member – Politico
A Possible Decision on BRExit at February EU Summit – euinside
2010 FOMC Laugh Track: Jokes About an Uncertain Upturn – WSJ
Paul Krugman: Oil Goes Nonlinear – NYT
Latest memo from Howard Marks: On the Couch – Oaktree Capital
The Time for Value – Euclidean
We believe that now is a very attractive time to invest in value strategies. Following similar times in the past, value investors achieved both strong absolute returns and robust relative performance versus the broad market indexes.
Everyone is a Closet Technician – Joshua Brown
"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS Explains – ZH
FX Forecast Update – Danske Bank
Living with lower oil and a weaker China
Martin Enlund: FX: what if a US recession? – Nordea
The start of the year has been troublesome for many investors, and fears of a US recession have been on the rise. Conventional recession indicators such as the yield curve are not indicative of a new recession any time soon, nor do we think a US recession is brewing. Even so, we took a look at what normally happens during US recessions.
Aurelija Augulyte: FX: breaking bad – Nordea
Deflation fears rise as the oil dropped over 20% so far this year. Still, don't underestimate inflation risks later this year - negative only if coupled with US recession. ECB optimism and China growth data could help the riskiest FX this week.
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
The Bad Start to Year Keeps Getting Worse
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Continued risk-off mood, lift of sanctions on Iran send oil prices lower, Chinese GDP ahead * US manufacturing sector in recession * US 10-year breaks through 2% intraday * EUR/USD higher on disappointing US retail sales
Morning Markets – TF
Iran's return to global markets following the lifting of trade sanctions against it on Sunday has exacerbated worries about the world oil glut and sent the commodity spinning to new record lows. Sentiment overall is risk-off and bearish and there really isn't any economic data of note.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Trying to Get One's Bearings
Daily Shot – TF
Stock markets and crude oil plummeted on Friday and betting against the US Federal Reserve's interest rate forecast gained momentum after worse-than-expected US industrial production capacity utilisation and New York manufacturing reports. With oil at historic lows market-based inflation expectations have fallen. The implied probability of four or more US rate hikes in 2016 dropped to less than 1% and the probability of no hikes at all this year doubled in just two days.
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Several EU states consider adopting UK’s reforms on migrants’ access to benefits * Cameron preparing legislation to make it "even clearer to people that our Parliament is sovereign" * Austria suspends Schengen agreement as Schäuble suggests EU petrol-tax to fund refugee crisis response * New European Parliament report finds half of EU’s £23bn EU aid budget has not been used properly * S&P downgrades Poland’s credit rating over erosion of independence of public institutions * 61% of Spanish voters want to see a government formed while only 33% favour fresh elections * Dutch referendum campaigners threaten legal action over EU-Ukraine Association Agreement * Greece signs deal on tax evasion with German state * Commission highlights potential anti-trust cases on firms’ use of big data * Trade associations warn of “enormous” consequences if US and EU fail to reach deal on data transfers * ECB questions banks over bad loans * Plans to meet EU energy targets could see rise in petrol costs
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Iran plans — Poland’s push — Migration measures
US Open – ZH
Equity Futures Rise After Oil Rebounds From 12 Year Lows; US Markets Closed
FX Update – TF
We have a staggered start to what should prove another nervous week for global markets as US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday today.
From the Floor – TF
The lifting of sanctions on Iran has led to yet another devastating session for oil with Brent taking the full brunt of yet another tick in the supply side of the fundamentals equation.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Puhuuko Draghi korot nousuun? * Tällä viikolla tiedossa EKP:n kokous ja USA:n inflaatioluvut * Öljyn hinta painui 30 dollarin alapuolelle * USA:n vähittäismyynti ja teollisuustuotanto supistuivat joulukuussa
Öljy, osakkeet ja talouskasvu – Roger Wessman
Erkki Liikanen: Miten Suomi pelastetaan? – IS
Euroalueella talouskasvu on ollut vahvaa, mutta Suomi on yhä vaikeuksissa. Nyt tarvitaan yhteistä näkemystä ja luottamukseen perustuvaa yrityskohtaista sopimista, kirjoittaa Suomen Pankin pääjohtaja Erkki Liikanen.
Markus Haavio: Pitkän hitaan kasvun ajan kolme selittäjää – Suomen Pankki
Week Ahead – Marc Chandler
What Will It Take to Stabilize the Capital Markets?