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Thursday, January 21

21st Jan - ECB hints at March

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Matteo Renzi: Europe isn’t working for this generationThe Guardian
A decade of misguided political and economic orthodoxy has killed growth and fuelled populism

‘The EU Is on the Verge of Collapse’The New York Review of Books
The following is a revised version of an interview between George Soros and Gregor Peter Schmitz of the German magazine WirtschaftsWoche.

Euro Sovereign Playbook 2016ABN AMRO
Back to the drawing board for the ECB

IMF ends 2010 loan exemption that helped fight euro debt crisisReuters

Even the ECB's Cash Can't Stop Investors Worrying About PortugalBB

The dead hand of austerity; left and rightSimon Wren-Lewis

Five Things to Ask Mario Draghi Today From Oil to Negative Rates – BB
Draghi's Oil-Crash Struggle Evokes ECB Reply to 2011 Spike – BB
5 Questions About the ECB’s Thursday Meeting – WSJ
A few questions for Draghi todayJonathan Algar

Introductory Statement to the press conference – ECB
ECB News Conference—Live Blog – WSJ
As it happened: Mario Draghi press conference – FT
Euro tumbles; stocks surge after Draghi says "will reconsider in March" – ZH
Draghi Drives Euro Lower – Marc Chandler
Draghi Readies for ECB Action in March as Global Risks Escalate – BB
ECB's Draghi eyes March policy review as economic risks grow – Reuters
ECB meeting - It ain't over till it's over – Carsten Brzeski
5 Takeaways from Mario Draghi’s News Conference – WSJ
New easing package likely announced in March – Pictet 

Merkel in Peril With Window to Tame EU's Refugee Crisis Closing – BB
In Europe and at home, Merkel’s policy being blown away – The Economist
Austria does Angela Merkel’s dirty work – Politico

Economic overviewMarkit
Global economy ends 2015 on soft note amid emerging market gloom

Two Important ReformsMarc Chandler
There have been two important reforms announced, one in the EU and other in the IMF, that many investors may have missed due to the carnage in the markets. 

Markets are really, nominally confusedFT
Real global GDP barely decelerated in 2015 (from 3.4% in 2014 to 3.1%) and will somewhat re-accelerate this year (to 3.4% again).

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Hit Fresh Lows Amid Oil Slide

Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ

Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

More equity market carnage, bonds and the JPY rally, no help from the ECB today * ECB not ready to act today * Core bonds rally and spreads explode * JPY surges on the back of risk aversion

Morning MarketsTF
Markets continue to be weighed down by dismal commodity prices and soft sentiment but those traders hoping for a cash injection from Frankfurt may be disappointed as the EU economy is broadly holding steady despite current market conditions.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Fragile Calm Ahead of ECB Meeting

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron calls on business leaders to make case for remaining in reformed EU * French PM pours cold water on prospect of UK deal at February EU summit * Austria becomes first EU country to impose cap on refugee numbers * Civitas: “Myth” that EU membership adds clout in trade negotiations * Commission orders Belgian government to recover €211m in state aid to steel firms as it eyes potential state aid in Italy * ECB expected to hold, despite market turmoil and low inflation * EU Economics Commissioner sees limited impact from market uncertainty on European growth * Big European states back Lagarde to continue as IMF chief

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Who runs Austria? — Refugee policy RIP — Davos digest

US Equity Futures Fail To Sustain Bounce; Resume Slide On Oil Fears


FX UpdateTF
The deflationary risks have accelerated since the December 3 damp squib from the ECB but can Draghi deliver sufficiently dovish rhetoric to impress this market which slipped back into deleveraging mode in the Asian session overnight?

From the FloorTF
China's weak growth is no news, illiquidity is a greater issue * ECB is expected to be very dovish * Oil price remains under pressure until production is cut, voluntarily or not * Gold moving higher but not with much conviction

EKP:n kokous ei tarjoa uusia toimia, ei piristä markkinatunnelmaa * Inflaatiopaineet kasautuvat USA:ssa * Kanadan keskuspankki piti ohjauskoron ennallaan 

Kiinteät investoinnit piristymässä vähän, mutta pääomakanta supistuu yhäEK
Investoinnit eivät korvaa kulumista, odotuksetkin vain välttävätVerkkouutiset