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Wednesday, January 13

13th Jan - Third rally day fizzles

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Is UK’s EU referendum in June as nailed as people think? Open Europe
Europe's Weakening Inflation Outlook Spurs Calls for ECB ActionBB
Mizuho sees ECB increasing pace of asset purchases in March * RBS predicts 0.4 percentage-point cut to deposit rate in 2016

EU launches ‘rule of law’ probe of Poland – Politico
Could Poland be the first victim of Article 7? – Politico
Timmermans calls for talks as row over Polish media law rumbles on – FT

New financial forecasts: No reason to be overly worried yet Nordea
2016 certainly started with a bang. Plunges in Chinese equity prices have caused major swings in markets globally, and many have started to question the global outlook more generally. Our stance remains recent Chinese developments illustrate more temporary uncertainty related to the equity markets and the currency than the beginning of a hard landing in economy. The Fed will hike again in March, the Bank of England will follow in Q2. Emerging market currencies are probably past the worst.

Strategy 2016: Three reasons why the EUR could soarNordea
The EUR has been under pressure for monetary policy reasons since 2014, and we foresee some further EUR weakness in 2016. As always, there are known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. In this piece we take a look at three known knowns which could cause the EUR to actually soar.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Extend Gains After Choppy Session

Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
A ‘Stealth Bear Market’ for the S&P

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Good news from Chinese trade and the US labour market * New financial forecasts * Fed March rate hike probability fading * GBP takes a hit on industrial data – ignoring better survey data

Morning MarketsTF
Surprisingly good Chinese data helped cheer markets Wednesday but oil is in yet another of its tepid recovery phases that offers very little confidence that it can defend the $30/b area.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Fishing for a Bottom to Dollar-Yen

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Sweeping changes proposed to German immigration and asylum law in post-Cologne crackdown * AfD polling on record high following Cologne attacks * Government clashes with SNP over potential June referendum * Daily Express: Boris rejects leading Leave campaign * European Commission to hold fire on Polish government’s controversial reforms * New Spanish parliament holds first sitting amid continued uncertainty over government formation * Mid-term review of EU budget cancelled * Canadian mining firm suspends some operations in Greece amid political interference

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
China trade fight — Polish debate — Migration money

Global Stocks Rebound As Fears Of Chinese Hard-Landing Pushed Back On Strong Trade Data


FX UpdateTF
Markets tried to put a pretty face after a relatively upbeat Asian session and a calming of the overnight rates for offshore yuan. But the bounce will prove of the dead cat variety if it can't extend notably in today's session.

From the FloorTF
Commodity prices – and especially oil prices – remain near record lows but a stable Asian session as well as some slight local bounces mean that risk sentiment is starting to return to world markets.

Vaihteeksi myönteisiä uutisia Kiinasta * Kiinan vienti laski odotettua vähemmän * Euroalueen teollisuustuotannon kasvu jää aiempaa hitaammaksi * Fedin Evans ja Lacker ovat äänessä tänään