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EUROPE
Guy Verhofstadt: Europe Sells Out – Project
Syndicate
Europe’s refugee crisis
is far from solved, but there are signs that the agreement finalized by the EU
and Turkey on March 18 is reducing the flow of refugees and migrants from
Turkey to Greece. The problem is that the deal is undermining the values on which
the EU was founded.
Eurozone’s So-Called Recovery Masks A Dark
Secret: Mercantilism – Social
Europe
OTHER
Majors & Scandies: May 2016 FX forecast – Nordea
We continue to think
developed markets will continue to perform decently despite headwinds from
Emerging Markets. We keep our forecast unchanged from April. The USD is going
through a soft spell and that might not change in the short term but we still
expect it to make a comeback in H2 2016. The EUR has gained ground but we see
no strong case for continued EUR strength. And a correction of the JPY looks
due although factors are supportive for JPY strength in the long term.
EM FX: May 2016 financial forecasts – Nordea
Commodity prices have
defined EM FX performance so far this year. While commodity prices have started
to look softer and pose a clear risk of renewed EM FX weakening in the near
term, we have become more confident in the view that EM currencies will
strengthen towards more fundamental equilibrium levels during the second half
of this year and onwards.
Majors & Scandies: May 2016 central bank and
rates forecasts – Nordea
We stick to our
forecasts that the ECB and the BoJ will soon ease again, while the Fed will
hike rates only once this year. Due to the Brexit risk, the BoE is likely to
remain on the side line for a while yet. With mounting inflation pressures we
remain worried that markets will start to price in a scenario of the Fed
falling behind the curve, resulting in a steeper curve later this year. For EUR
rates we retain a slightly rising profile longer out, but the profile is
backloaded.
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Bond yields and oil prices lower;
JPY hit by intervention warning * CPI prints in focus in Norway and Denmark * German
yields reversed most of their earlier rise * JPY taking a hit
Morning Markets – TF
Markets slid Tuesday as a tumble in
oil kept a lid on any momentum from better data out of China.
Euro wrap-up – Daiwa
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
A Few Thoughts from Asian Business
Trip
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
Commodities: long and wrong?
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Senior NATO and US
figures warn Brexit would undermine Western security while Boris Johnson claims
EU is now “force for instability and alienation” * Osborne warns that tens of
thousands of jobs could be lost in City of London if UK leaves * Austria’s
Chancellor resigns amidst migration crisis fallout * New BCC survey: Support
for Brexit up amongst British business * Some progress between Greece and
creditors as completion of bailout review edges closer and debt relief talks
tentatively begin * IDS: Cameron dropped ‘emergency brake’ on EU migrants at
behest of Merkel * Merkel’s CDU/CSU on record low poll showing * French PM
unveils new €40 million plan to fight radicalization * Podemos and United Left
agree to run together in upcoming Spanish elections * French politician vying
for President calls for referendum on new European “project” * German exports
rise unexpectedly
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Austrian chancellor out
— Greek debt talks — Refugee showdown looms
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Jump; Oil Rises As Yen
Plunges After Another Japanese FX Intervention Threat
Frontrunning – ZH
Most USD pairs have not
neutralized the bearish threat with a bit more EURUSD downside and USDJPY
upside needed to seal the deal. But does a new US dollar bull market need a
Fed-inspired catalyst?
Oil prices are down as
the fire in Canada that was threatening oil production facilities recedes on
the back of a literal headwind. That has also put pressure on NOK. Elsewhere
USDCNH is in focus.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Dollari
odottelee uutta äänensävyä * Saksan tehdastilaukset yllättivät positiivisesti *
Japanin valtionvarainministerin mukaan interventiot ovat mahdollisia *
Eurokorot jatkoivat laskulinjalla