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Wednesday, May 4

4th May - Risk aversion continues

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Paul Krugman: Real Exchange Rates and European Adjustment NYT

Despite reforms, EU remains vulnerable to any future crisis Moody’s
Moody’s: EU break-up may be ‘when not if’ – Moody’s FT

Reinforcing the Eurozone and protecting an open society vox
The sovereign debt and refugee crises prove that Europe has failed to design institutions robust enough to weather difficult times. Coordinated actions are needed, but these are difficult to implement because of the political climate. This column presents the 2nd Monitoring the Eurozone report, in which the authors propose institutional changes that are politically feasible and can help restore growth and prosperity to the Eurozone.

Completing the Eurozone banking unionvox
Most commentators agree that a European banking union would end the ‘deadly embrace’ between creditors and governments. This column argues that a banking union would be welcome, but that current proposals are dogged with problems. To resolve these, we should stop discussing debt restructuring and instead enhance the borrowing capacity of the European Stability Mechanism. A programme to buy capital in financial institutions unable to raise it directly on the market should also be set up.

Jan von Gerich: Bonds: It’s a long shot to be shortNordea
The ECB’s bond purchase programme and record-low yield levels have attracted governments to issue increasing amounts of bonds in the long end of the curve. In fact, the share of long-term EUR government bond issuance has hit records, which has also put some pressure on the longer end of the curve. The bulk of the issuance is likely behind for now, alleviating the already limited upside pressures bond yields are facing.

Preview of April Employment Report Bill McBride

Is QE4 (still) coming?FT
Citi’s global head of G10 strategy, Steven Englander, who wonders if markets have begun pricing another round in:

Imagining a New Bretton WoodsProject Syndicate
The financial meltdown of 2008 prompted calls for a global financial system that curtails trade imbalances, moderates speculative capital flows, and prevents systemic contagion. That, of course, was the goal of the original Bretton Woods system. But such a system today would be both untenable and undesirable. So, what might an alternative look like?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Bund yields at 20bp, busy US data calendar today, stronger dollar * Better news from the US services sector? * Fed’s Lockhart and Williams stressed that June is a live meeting * Commodity currencies suffered from the weaker oil

Morning MarketsTF
Anxiety about the health of the global economy hit sentiment across Asia on Wednesday with stocks heading lower in Hong Kong Seoul and Mumbai. In Australia top miners weighed dragged the Australia's S&P/ASX200 sharply lower.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Greenback Firmer, but has it Turned?

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
When the market talks...

Daily Market CommentPolemic’s Pains
I don't know.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
House of Lords report: Article 50 only legal way to exit the EU * Hollande rejects EU-US free trade deal “at this stage” * Brexit uncertainty blamed for sudden fall in manufacturing * Commission to recommend visa-free travel for Turks insisting that conditions still have to be met * New Migration Observatory report: Almost 1 in 5 EU migrants claimed some form of state benefit within 4 years of arriving in UK * Commission downgrades Eurozone inflation and growth forecasts * Leave campaigners say German plans for ‘European Army’ are a reason to leave the EU * Ireland set for Fine Gael minority government * Re-run elections in Spain to be held on June 26

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Spain to re-vote — Mogherini reshuffle

Global Stocks Slide As Dollar Continues Rising: Has The "Pricing In" Of Trump Begun


From the FloorTF
Markets have once again capitulated to a broad and stubborn cloud of risk-off sentiment with European bond yields and global equities showing particular declines. The rally in the USD launched yesterday however remains in effect.

Etsintäkuulutus: saksalainen inflaatio * Iso-Britannian teollisuuden ostopäällikköindeksi (PMI) laski yllättäen * Riksbankin huhtikuun kokouspöytäkirja julkaistaan tänään * USA:n palvelusektorin luottamus (ISM) kohenee edelleen