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Friday, May 27

27th May - Yellen's speech, June or July?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe’s political landscape may look quite different by end-2017 – and the UK referendum is just one of the reasons whyOpen Europe
During the fifteen months following the UK’s EU referendum, voters in the Eurozone’s four largest countries will also head to the polls for a number of key ballots that could change Europe’s political landscape quite significantly. Open Europe’s Vincenzo Scarpetta looks at what is at stake for each individual country and the EU as a whole.

Hans-Werner Sinn: Twin Tests for the EUProject Syndicate
Two decisions in June will shape the future of Europe: the ruling by Germany's Constitutional Court on whether the Bundesbank may participate in the ECB's bond-buying program and the UK's referendum on continued EU membership. Whatever the outcome, the era of unconditional trust in the EU and its institutions has come to an end.

This Week’s Brexit Briefing – At A GlanceWSJ
Brexit Monitor No. 5: Brexit fears eased further this weekDanske Bank

The ECB seeks balance between caution and confidence Pictet

Powell, DataTim Duy
Fed officials believe the data is lining up for a rate hike in the near future. Ultimately, I think they pass on June. Strategically, July offers a lot to like.

Bond Markets Are Coming Around to the Idea of a Rate HikeWSJ

Juhani Huopainen: July hike would see the Fed have its cake, eat it, too TF
Everyone has heard the "June is live" line by now but there are a few reasons why such an imminent US rate hike is unlikely; July in fact will probably prove the path of least resistance for the Federal Reserve.

Is The Market Priced For A Summer Rate-Hike?ZH

U.S. economic growth revised higher in first quarter – Reuters
First Quarter GDP Revised Higher To 0.8%, Misses Expectations – ZH
Q1 GDP Revised Up to 0.8% Annual Rate – Bill McBride
Consumer Sentiment at 94.7 – Bill McBride
Putting Profits in Perspective – Project Syndicate
U.S. Economy Grew More Last Quarter Than Previously Estimated – BB
What Are the Negatives From the U.S. GDP Report? – BB
What Impact Will U.S. GDP Numbers Have on Fed Policy? – BB
Why GDP Numbers May Put Fed Rate Hike on Hold – BB

G7 vows growth efforts as Japan's Abe warns of global crisis – Reuters
G7 leaders: Brexit a ‘serious risk to growth’ – Politico

Neoliberalism: Oversold?IMF
Can Globalization Still Deliver? – IMF
IMF economists put ‘neoliberalism’ under the spotlight – FT
New IMF Paper Challenges Neoliberal Orthodoxy – Yves Smith

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Markets awaiting Yellen speech, oil lower, new ECB call * No need for more ECB easing for now * Spanish bonds suffer on political uncertainties * GBP and USD were the biggest losers yesterday against other G10 currencies

Morning MarketsTF
European indices are expected to open mildly higher though markets will likely be subdued as traders await a key speech by Fed chief Janet Yellen.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Firms as Traders Await Yellen

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
The Fed's Memorial Day barbecue

Daily ShotTF
Weak US capital goods investment shipments and manufacturers' orders paint a subdued picture and the so-called "Vice index" of booze gambling and unhealthy food consumption indicates a weaker economy ahead. Declining US inflation expectations despite stronger oil prices are another argument supporting the Fed doves though Fed officials continue to beat the tightening drum.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
FT: France will want to send “punitive message” in event of Brexit although Germany is wary of an aggressive approach * Johnson criticises Cameron’s ‘cynical’ immigration target * G7 leaders warn Brexit is a “serious risk to growth” * EU plans to spend €67m on drones to monitor oceans for migrant boats * Scottish Parliament signals strong support for continued EU membership * New figures show Leave camp is ahead in fundraising race * Protests over labour reform bill intensify across France * Merkel against easing EU sanctions on Russia * Polish Deputy Prime Minister says constitutional dispute is putting off investors * Member states agree to allow subscribers to access digital media services access the EU

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Swimming for In — Putin does Athens — Commission on forced labor

All Eyes On Yellen: Global Markets Flat On Dreadful Volumes, Oil Slides


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar rally has fizzled for the moment ahead of next week’s US economic data onslaught. The yen remains stubbornly firm after the G7 summit seen as presenting a high bar for Japanese FX intervention.

From the FloorTF
Crude oil retreated Friday and looks set to drift further lower after a failed breach of the headline-grabbing $50/barrel level on Thursday. Meanwhile FX and fixed-income markets await a speech from Fed chief Janet Yellen and look ahead to a raft of key data next week for confirmation of recent Fed hawkishness.

Ruotsin talouskasvu maltillistuu * Norjan öljyinvestoinnit laskevat edelleen tänä vuonna * Fedin pääjohtaja Yellen pitää illalla puheen *​ Punta heikentyi Britannian investointien laskiessa

Matti Vanhasen kolumni: Brexit johtaisi suurvaltojen EurooppaanMTV

Voivatko alhaiset korot nostaa säästämistä?Roger Wessman