Google Analytics

Monday, May 16

16th May - Recent US-data supported USD

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

German government plans to spend 93.6 billion euros on refugees by end 2020 – Reuters
Brussels briefing: the measure of migration – FT

Bootle: Yes, the IMF and 200-plus economists can be wrong – The Telegraph
Brexit, immigration and £100 – Simon Wren-Lewis
AEP: IMF meddling on Brexit is scandalous skullduggery – The Telegraph
Legrain: The Economic Consequences of Brexit – Project Syndicate

Fed Not As Convinced About June As MarketsTim Duy
I don't think the data lines up to support a June rate hike. But I don't think the case will be as clear-cut as signaled by the low odds financial market participants place on a hike.

China’s Economy Grinds Down a Gear as Heavy Industry DragsBB
Industrial output, retail and investment all miss estimates * Data dashes hopes that China’s economy has turned a corner

China Slowdown Shows Debt Addiction Will Be Tough to Shake – BB
Australia 10-Year Yield Drops to Record Low as China Sags: Chart – BB

Index Investing Makes Markets and Economies More EfficientPhilosophical Economics

The verdict from G20 Money Base growth: Money is TIGHTLars Christensen

Debunking ‘fiscal alchemy’: The role of fiscal councilsvox
The success of independent central banks is often used to argue in favour of independent fiscal councils with the aim of promoting sound fiscal policies. But unlike central banks, fiscal councils have no policy levers to pull – they can bark but never bite. This column explores the theoretical foundations and practical implications of fiscal councils. The evidence suggests that independent councils can mitigate the deficit bias. They do this by subjecting the ‘fiscal alchemy’ to systematic, rigorous, and highly publicised scrutiny.

We Need Central Bankers Who Speak Their MindsView / BB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Positive US retail sales, Chinese worries, oil with more gains * US retail sales point to consumer comeback * Short yields rise on positive US retail sales * JPY and USD with gains

Morning MarketsTF
The final confirmation that oil has come out of the doldrums could be in line if Brent can batter down the $50/b mark. With Goldman Sachs changing its outlook on global supply this could be the week it happens.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Are Dollar Fundamentals Lagging the Technical Improvement?

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Brief Look at the Start of the New Week's Activity

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
I'm so confused

Daily ShotTF
Last Friday's retail sales beat was an important data point for the US recovery narrative but Morgan Stanley's analysis of stateside equity markets points to trouble ahead.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Bank of England Governor defends his warnings over economic impact of Brexit as 300 business people back Leave * Boris rebuked on EU-Hitler comparisons but poll reveals he’s twice as trusted as Cameron on Europe * EU-Turkey deal falling short of deportation expectations * Splits emerge between IMF and Eurozone over Greek debt relief * German professors launch new legal challenge against ECB bond buying * Two Spanish polls show new left-wing ticket would overtake Socialist Party in re-run election * Greece to block TTIP unless geographical indications are protected * European Commission considering new tools to prevent cash outflows from failing banks * Google could face record breaking fine in Commission anti-trust case * Moody’s warns over outlook for Polish credit rating due to “unpredictable policies”

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brexit battles — Italian visions — Trump referendum

Futures Flat Despite China Scare As Oil Rebounds Over $47


Vaisut BKT-luvut Japanin keskuspankin haasteena * USA:n huhtikuun vähittäismyynti ylitti odotukset * Kiinan huhtikuun talousluvut alittivat odotukset * Tällä viikolla saadaan inflaatiolukuja USA:sta ja Britanniasta

Jan Hurri: Näkökulma: Ei Kreikkaa vaan pankkeja pelastamassaTalSa
Suomikin on nyt kuusi vuotta sekaantunut Kreikan kriisiin. Mutta kuka enää muistaa, miksi? Ei siellä Kreikkaa ole pelastettu, vaan suurten EU-maiden rämäpäisiä pankkeja.

Jan Hurri: Muistatko vielä Kreikka-vakuudet? Niistä tuskin heruu euroakaanTalSa
Analyysi Kreikan seuraavatkin velkahelpotukset toteutunevat tavalla, josta Suomikin kärsii itse omat tappionsa. Vakuuksista ei heru euroakaan hyvitystä, jos huojennukset syntyvät sovussa.

Risto Pennanen: EU:n sääntöjä on muutettavaTalSa
EU:n säännöt sallivat rahan jakamisen Kreikalle ja sen velkojille, mutta eivät kriisin ratkaisemista.

Julkisten korkomenojen lasku jatkuuRoger Wessman