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Wednesday, May 25

25th May - Eurogroup agrees on Greece

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Erdoğan: No Turkey visa waiver, no refugee dealPolitico

The Economist was cautious about Britain joining the euroThe Economist

What Good Is a United Europe to America?The Atlantic
A Brexit advocate says U.S. support for the EU fundamentally misreads what the institution has become.

Merkel Caught Out as Erdogan Threatens to Ax Refugee Deal BB
Erdogan volley lands as German cabinet holds two-day retreat * Chancellor flummoxed as refugee decline fails to lift party

German Ifo Business Climate Index Rises – CESifo
Germany: Ifo confirms that growth continues – Nordea

Just enough Greek debt relief to keep IMF on board – Politico
Greek debt agreement reached – Politico
Greece Wins Pledge for Debt Relief as IMF Bows to Euro Proposal – BB
Greece reaches breakthrough debt deal – FT
Euro zone hails 'breakthrough' with Greece, IMF debt deal – Reuters
Messy Greek debt deal leaves key questions unanswered – FT
Another missed opportunity for a more lasting deal to help Greece – Open Europe
What the Greek Deal Does and Does Not Do – Marc Chandler
Eurogroup deal relieves pressure on Greece – Pictet
The Greek government’s equity portfolio – FT
The IMF, Trying to Lend Europe Credibility, Risks Losing Some of Its Own – WSJ

Draghi in QE Quandary After Draining Bond Market by $800 BillionBB
It’s like building ‘a boat in the open sea,’ says Rabobank * Germany could face hurdle in executing QE plan: DZ Bank

ECB credit buying to start small, betting on issue boom – sourcesReuters
ECB will aim to start small when it begins buying corporate debt in June, seeking first to lure new issuers and then slowly raise the monthly pace of purchases to 5-10 billion euros

Should The Fed Tolerate 5% Unemployment?Tim Duy
It seems to me then that a central bank with a symmetric inflation target would choose to refrain from further rate hikes when progress toward full employment had clearly decelerated (or even stalled) and inflation remains below target. We will soon see if the Fed agrees.

Jan von Gerich: Bonds: Brexit contagion considerationsNordea
Brexit, if realized, would not happen in a vacuum. It would have repercussion throughout Europe, with some countries hit more than others. While it may be tempting to try to estimate the vulnerabilities to Brexit by direct economic linkages to the UK economy, market worries will probably be more determined by spill-overs regarding political risks. On this measure, especially Dutch, Italian and French bonds look vulnerable.

Why the global trade slowdown may mattervox
Trade has been growing more slowly since the Great Recession not only because global GDP growth is lower, but also because trade itself has become less responsive to GDP. The causes of the changing trade-income relationship have been studied, but its consequences have not. This column presents a simple framework to assess some of the demand-side and supply-side implications. The change hurts growth, although the quantifiable effects are not large. 

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Greek deal, political risks, receding Brexit worries * More Fed and ECB speakers on the agenda * US yields edge higher * GBP with a strong rally

Morning MarketsTF
Asian equity markets kicked off the day with a bounce in sentiment thanks to higher crude prices a firmer US dollar and a positive lead from Wall Street overnight.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Marks time

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Agreement reached on releasing next tranche of bailout funds to Greece but debt relief mostly delayed until 2018 * Brexit would cause two more years of ‘austerity’, IFS study claims * Two online polls suggest EU referendum is neck and neck and that trust in Cameron has fallen * Dutch PM warns of Brexit consequences for his country’s industry * Former SAS commander Sir Michael Rose: EU membership undermines Britain’s military * Erdoğan threatens to call off EU-Turkey migrant deal unless visa-free travel granted * Deficit sanctions for Spain and Portugal still a possibility according to Eurgroup Chief * Timmermans: Constitutional stand-off is an internal Polish problem, the solution to which can only be formulated in Poland

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Let’s get digital! — Schulz power play — EU’s North Korean labor

Global Stocks, Futures Rally, Ignore Sharp Yuan Devaluation On Hopes Fed Is Right This Time


FX UpdateTF
Yesterday’s enormous risk-appetite rally has changed the tone across markets leaving us to decide whether it was merely an ugly short squeeze or if the markets have declared themselves unafraid of the hawkish Fed.

From the FloorTF
With most of continental Europe basking in summer sunshine the region's financial markets have roared back into risk-on mode supported by a bevy of sunny news developments including strong US home sales data a breakthrough Greek debt deal and a new strong lead for the pro-EU side of the Brexit campaign.

Velka ei ole syypää rahapolitiikan tehottomuuteen * Euromaat pääsivät sopuun Kreikan uudesta lainaerästä * Ruotsin työmarkkinat vahvimmillaan aikoihin *​ Markkinoiden odotukset Fedin koronnostotahdista nousivat yhä

Jan Hurri: Näin euromaiden velkataakka kevenee – paitsi KreikanTalSa
Euromaiden talousministerit empivät, josko tohtisi keventää Kreikan valtaisaa velkataakkaa. Keskuspankit eivät emmi: ne antavat paraikaakin mittavaa velkahuojennusta kaikille eurovaltioille – paitsi Kreikalle.

Kokoomuksen johdolle murska-arvio puolueiden imagotutkimuksessaYLE
Puolueiden uusi imagotutkimus: katso eri puolueiden vahvuudet ja heikkoudetYLE

Eikö keskuspankki voisi maksaa kaikkien velat?Peter Nyberg

Kreikalle myönnetään 10,3 miljardin lisälaina – YLE
Euroryhmä lupasi Kreikalle 10 miljardin lisärahoituksen ja velkahelpotuksia – Verkkouutiset
Euroryhmä sopi Kreikan lainahelpotuksista – tai ainakin periaatteesta – YLE
Onko Kreikan kolmas tukipaketti toiminut? – Roger Wessman
Euroryhmä sopi, että Kreikan kriisi jatkuu viimeistään 2018 – Antti Ronkainen