Google Analytics

Monday, May 9

9th May - Talks on Greece

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Münchau: Draghi, Schäuble and the high cost of Germany’s savings cultureFT
This could tell us that Berlin, perhaps more so than Athens, is unprepared for monetary union

EU looks for migration Plan B, without Turkey: reportPolitico

How Renzi’s European strategy is putting him at odds with MerkelEuropp
Renzi has voiced criticism of EU decision-making in recent months in relation to both the migration crisis and fiscal policy rules. Although Renzi’s European policy is partly rooted in seeing off the challenge of Eurosceptic parties within Italy, he is also intent on playing a more assertive role at the European level as a counterweight to German influence.

The IMF Is Right About GreeceView / BB
Stephen Pope: Eurozone must aid Greece or bite the Grexit bulletTF

June Fades AwayTim Duy
The Fed breathed a sigh of relief after financial markets stabilized. That opened up the possibility that June would still be on the table, leaving them the option for three rate hikes this year. I don't think that policymakers will abandon June as easily as financial market participants. My sense is that they will remain coy, implying odds closer to 50-50. But the data are not in their favor.

The Macro Take: When the bears play the bulls' gameTF
It's worth being aware of what is on the other side of their trade/investment. If you are long what are the arguments for the shorts do they hold merit and are the odds of those arguments being right increasing or decreasing?

China monthly: little news is good newsNordea
The Chinese economy and markets seem to enjoy a moment of calmness at the moment. Our concern is that the stabilisation is only temporary as it is mostly due to policy easing, Growth headwinds remain strong, so the economy will likely slide further this year. The CNY may have stayed stable vs the USD but it has weakened sharply vs a currency basket. The lack of a clear FX policy adds to uncertainty and depreciation pressure, especially if things start to go south again.

Adair Turner: Helicopters on a LeashProject Syndicate
Monetary finance – or "helicopter drops" of newly printed cash – is the one policy that will always stimulate nominal demand, even when other policies, such as debt-financed fiscal deficits or negative interest rates, are ineffective. And there is no reason why rules cannot be devised to mitigate the political risk of excessive use.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Reviewing US payrolls, important week for Scandi central banks * Scandi inflation data week
Positive details within disappointing US payrolls * EURUSD moving sideways

Morning MarketsTF
China's April trade data has derailed hopes that the world's second largest economy might be back on track and oil reacts to the latest machinations in the Saudi corridors of power.

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Monday morning bullet points
Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron lays out defence and security case for staying in the EU * Osborne warns Brexit would hit house prices as Gove says Britain should leave the Single Market * Erdogan pours cold water on migrant deal as European leaders search for alternatives * Greek parliament passes controversial tax and pension reforms ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting * New poll highlights appetite for EU referendums in other member states * Polish opposition holds anti-government, pro-EU march in Warsaw * German Vice Chancellor denies he’s quitting as support for his party slumps

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Greece — Calenda’s U-turn — Trump trauma

US Futures, Europe Stocks Jump On Oil, USDJPY Surge; Ignore Poor China Data, Iron Ore Plunge


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar made a stand last week just after the dollar index had crossed below key support stretching back to 2014. But with a lack of interesting US event risks this week can the USD follow through higher still?

From the FloorTF
This weekend's soft Chinese trade data are weigh heavily on risk sentiment but Saxo FX head John Hardy says the greenback is at a "technically interesting" level. So we might add are global politics as populist currents threaten the current order in nation after nation.

Britannian EU-jäsenyyden aiheuttama epävarmuus kasvussa * Uusia työpaikkoja syntyi USA:ssa odotuksia vähemmän * Kiinan huhtikuun vienti- ja tuontiluvut olivat pettymys * Dollari piti pintansa työllisyyspettymyksestä huolimatta