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Friday, May 13

13th May - Brexit is the topic of the day

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Paul De Grauwe: ECB grants debt relief to all Eurozone nations except Greecevoxeu
Greece may be about to get some debt relief, although there is still resistance to the idea. This column argues that the ECB has been providing other Eurozone countries with debt relief since early 2015 through its programme of quantitative easing. The reason given for excluding Greece from the QE programme – the ‘quality’ of its government bonds – can easily be overcome if the political will exists to do so. It is time to start treating a country struggling under the burden of immense debt in the same way as the other Eurozone countries are treated.

Bank of England and responding to Brexit – Open Europe
Brexit monitor 3: Referendum campaign has intensified – Danske Bank
This Week’s Brexit Briefing – At A Glance – WSJ
UK referendum: Campaign scorecard – Politico
IMF chief: Nothing positive for UK from Brexit – Politico
Bank of England’s alarm bells getting louder on Brexit – Politico
Media, Economics and Brexit – Simon Wren-Lewis
UK Article IV Consultation – IMF
Brexit Opposed by Almost 200 Economists in Letter – BB

German economy surges in Q1 – Carsten Brzeski
Germany: Growth way above trend in Q1, slower speed ahead – Nordea
Euro-area GDP: Positive news but small implications – Nordea

Core U.S. retail sales surge – Pictet
Consumers are still alive – Danske Bank
Retail sales boost, consumer sentiment surge – Daiwa

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Fed hikes, higher oil prices and ultra-long bond issuance are upside risks to European yields

Monthly Commodity UpdateABN AMRO
Weather related issues affect prices

Michael Biggs: Manna from HelicoptersProject Syndicate
In periods characterized by deflation, helicopter money is as close to a free lunch as economics has to offer. The reason this is not widely understood is because of the traditional method used to calculate seigniorage – the profits governments make from the printing of money.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Key figure day – watch out for US retail and Euro-area GDP * Yields rose on a day marked by weak equity markets and surging oil * JPY weakens as intervention talk drives markets

Morning MarketsTF
Bank of England governor Mark Carney unveiled his hand Thursday and that has left the Brexiteers spitting venom Friday and sterling marooned.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Toward a New Mouse Trap

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
What a long strange trip it's been

Daily ShotTF
Dilma Rousseff has been suspended as Brazilian president and impeachment is moving forward as interim President Michel Temer takes over. Rousseff' will continue to fight to regain power which will only add to economic uncertainty.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Leave campaign angered as Bank of England makes stark warning over Brexit * Eurogroup chief sees very few red lines on Greek debt relief * Juncker and Schäuble warn UK that “out means out” * House of Lords report claims EU mission to stop people smugglers in Mediterranean is failing * Germany posts impressive growth in first quarter of 2016 * EU Budget proposal delayed until after referendum

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Hungarians in hiding — Finland’s Detroit — Slovak memo leak

Bloody Start To Friday The 13th For Global Markets


FX UpdateTF
This week’s closing levels look important for establishing near-term direction for the USD particularly with key local support in play in EURUSD and the April US Retail Sales report out today. The yen is outpacing even a very strong USD at the moment as Kuroda’s rhetoric overnight failed to impress.

From the FloorTF
The US dollar rallied overnight and the strength shows signs of enduring with EURUSD breaking key local support. Markets await US retail sales figures for April as the main data point of the week.

Euroalueen talouskasvu yllätti alkuvuonna positiivisesti * Englannin keskuspankki korosti Brexitin negatiivisia vaikutuksia * Brasilian presidentti Rousseff astui syrjään * USA:n huhtikuun vähittäismyynnin odotetaan kasvavan