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Thursday, May 26

26th May - June's events dampen activity

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Top EU Official Calls Election of Trump, Le Pen and Johnson “A Horror Scenario” WSJ

Europe’s Troubles Pile Up at Home as Leaders Cross Globe for G-7 BB
Cameron, Merkel, Renzi and Hollande facing domestic challenges * Brexit to French strikes, refugees and elections occupy voters

ECB preview: Time to implementNordea
The higher oil price will lift the ECB’s inflation projection implying there is no need to do more easing now and the ECB can concentrate on implementation. We have thus altered our earlier expectation on a 10bp deposit rate cut. It will be challenging for Draghi to communicate that there is no need for further monetary policy easing but at the same time not to cause any tightening in the markets. We see a risk Draghi’s words leading to somewhat higher yields and a stronger euro again.

Europe's Pointless 'Breakthrough' on Greece – View / BB
Schäuble manouevres through tortuous Greek deal – FT
IMF: No Cash Now for Greece Because Europe Hasn’t Promised Debt Relief – WSJ

G7 Summit: Risk of a Global Crisis, Maritime Disputes and the DollarMarc Chandler

Helicopter money is different Eric Lonergan
Donald Kohn: Monetary policy and financial stabilityBrookings

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

GBP pounds higher on “risk on”, oil rises above 50, Norway oil survey due * Crucial figure for view on Norges Bank * GBP rally continues as BoE repriced * Fed’s Bullard to guide rates higher

Morning MarketsTF
Brent has broken through the $50/b barrier this morning for a seven-month high while dollar strength may be bullying the likes of AUD and NZD but is under scrutiny against it major peers.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Softer in Consolidation Mode

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Schrodinger's market

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
EU officials meet to discuss contingency plans in event of Brexit * IMF suggests it is far from ready to join third Greek bailout as Schäuble implies it’s a done deal * Merkel cabinet agrees ‘carrot-and-stick’ integration law for migrants * Merkel “not worried” about Turkey migrant deal as EU asks G7 for help with refugees * Commission unveils ‘baby steps’ towards digital single market * Juncker warns China it could face new EU tariffs on steel

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
New terror suspects arrested — G7 — Boris bumbles

Futures Levitation Continues As Brent Rises Above $50 For First Time Since November


FX UpdateTF
The USD rally fizzled accompanied by a mysterious spike in USDJPY overnight. USD traders' nerves will remain on edge through the end of next week on the Fed’s clearly data-dependence with a cluster of important US economic data releases ahead.

From the FloorTF
Today's Asian session saw a pronounced 50 pip dip in USDJPY that analysts are struggling to account for. With the macro data landscape favourable for this pair Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John Hardy says the plunge was "mysterious" and may be related to hedgining action ahead of month-end.

Yellenin varovaisuus siirtyy syrjään? * Saksan Ifo-indeksi yllätti positiivisesti * Norjasta saadaan tietoa öljyinvestoinneista *​ Britannia julkistaa yksityiskohdat ensimmäisen neljänneksen BKT-luvuista