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Tuesday, May 17

17th May - IMF asks EZ to write off Greek debt

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Dreams of deportationFT
Europe’s leaders have squabbled over nearly every policy aspect of the refugee crisis, apart from one: deportation. Most of them want more of it. But deportation is expensive, complicated and laborious, meaning that across the EU only 40 per cent of failed asylum seekers are ever sent home.

Brexit not to trigger Fixit but it could hurt a lotNordea
While the consequences of Brexit for the rest of the EU and the Euro-area are very uncertain, Brexit does not pose an immediate risk of Finland following Britain out of the union. Still, Brexit would deliver a further blow to the already ailing Finnish economy, increasing discussion and speculation of whether Finland should try its luck outside the euro. Finnish bonds would take another hit in a Brexit scenario.

IMF Proposal on Greece Sets Up Battle With Germany – WSJ
Europe May Buy IMF Out of Greek Bailout – Handelsblatt
IMF's Call for a Greek Debt Holiday Goes Too Far – View / BB
Commentary: Why the IMF must walk away from Greece – Reuters
Greece wants Eurogroup to focus on debt relief on May 24 – Reuters
De Grauwe: IMF Greece Plan Approaches Total Debt Relief – BB

The future role of unconventional monetary policy: CFM Survey resultsvox
Quantitative easing is called ‘unconventional monetary policy’, but monetary policy could get much more ‘unconventional’. Things like ‘helicopter money’, abolishing currency and negative nominal interest rates have entered the public policy debate. This column reports the views of leading experts on the future role of unconventional monetary policy, and what might be called ‘unconventional unconventional monetary policies’. Opinions are divided. There is a healthy dose of scepticism on the effectiveness of current and future policies, but also many respondents express urgency that central banks should have more policy tools to affect inflation and real activity when the need arises. Ultimately, the experts’ hesitations match those of central banks.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Oil at 6-month high, GBP gaining on remain, AUD up on RBA minutes * US and UK inflation numbers in focus * Risk appetite has improved overnight * How long will the détente in the currency wars last?

Morning MarketsTF
There was an upbeat mood across much of Asia today thanks to the share price rebound for Apple and firming crude prices. Even China's Shanghai Composite managed to scrape into positive territory in late trading. In Australia resources stocks gave the benchmark S&P/ASX200 a boost while the release of the RBA minutes pushed AUD sharply higher.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
The Meaning of Sterling and Aussie's Advance Today

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Sector stuff

Daily ShotTF
Two economies that were severely hit during the financial crisis report positive figures. Moody’s upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt projecting a better-than-expected economic outlook for the nation. Bond yields fell in response and Greek 10y government debt yield is back below 7.5%.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Osborne, Cable and Balls unite to warn against Brexit * ORB poll puts Remain ahead, but ICM polling shows big gap between online and phone results * Europe will face ‘populist uprising’ if it cannot address migration crisis- says ex MI6 Chief * British Land warns that referendum uncertainty is hitting investment * Sarkozy: France must initiate EU Treaty change from summer 2017 * Bundesbank President: Helicopter money “is not an issue” * Austria’s far-right Presidential candidate rules out leaving Schengen, Eurozone and EU Referendum * IMF calls for interest and debt payments on Greek bailout loans to be postponed until 2040 * ECB holds back on purchases of Irish and Portuguese debt to avoid hitting issuer cap

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Disunited nations — Council goes pink — France campaign flurry

Futures Fizzle After Oil Fades Bounce Above $48


FX UpdateTF
The recent US dollar comeback has found resistance in places. From here USD bulls will watch today’s US CPI data and tomorrow’s critical FOMC minutes for whether the path is open to further USD gains.

From the FloorTF
Decreased likelihood of a Brexit supports GBP * If US CPI is weak, USD might get hammered * Oil prices are up since supplies are down * Higher crude prices supporting NOK, CAD

Intian kasvutarina on myönteinen, muttei ongelmaton * New Yorkin teollisuuden luottamusindeksi laski odottamattomasti * Tänään tulossa USA:n ja Britannian inflaatioluvut * Japanille povataan nollakasvua