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Thursday, May 19

19th May - USD, GBP-strength paused

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe MonthlyDaiwa
Good Q1, slower Q2, downside risks, UK Brexit referendum ahead

Eurozone Watch – Europe’s soft approach towards the peripheryABN AMRO
The European Commission decided to postpone its decision about fines for Spain and Portugal until after the Spanish elections. The countries were granted another year to lower their budget deficits to below the EC’s 3% limit. Italy got some leeway to lower its debt ratio more slowly than planned. Although the EC’s approach will benefit economic growth in the short term, it might fuel euroscepticism in the core and could create doubts about debt sustainability in the longer run.

Minutes of April ECB meeting – ECB
ECB closed ranks against critics in April meeting, minutes show – Reuters
ECB Sees Major EU Reform Deficiency Amid Worrisome Inflation – BB
ECB’s Liikanen Sees Basic Math Signaling Inflation Over GoalBB

Michael Bloomberg: Leaving Europe Is a Risk the U.K. Shouldn't Take – View / BB
John Hardy: Trading the UK Brexit referendum in FX – TF
Steen Jakobsen: Why the EU is the least of Britain's worries – TF

Minutes Say June Is On The Table – Tim Duy
"Most participants judged" June rate hike "appropriate" based on data – Bill McBride
Majority of Fed officials prepared to raise interest rates in June, documents show – WaPo
Fed Minutes open door for June rate hike – ABN AMRO
Surprisingly hawkish FOMC minutes unsettles observers – Pictet
June Fed Rate-Hike Odds Surge After April Meeting Minutes: Chart – BB
Watch for Yellen's June 6 speech to confirm rate hike – TF
El-Erian: 5 Quick Takeaways from the Fed Minutes – View / BB
Fed rate hike on the table for June – Nordea
Does the Fed Have Enough Time to Answer the Big ‘If’? – WSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Hawkish minutes suggests that the Fed is uncomfortable with the market’s dovish view of its rate path: June is live * Spillover from the US will dominate this morning in the early trading session * Stronger USD on the back of hawkish FOMC minutes

Morning MarketsTF
The ripple effects of the FOMC minutes were felt as far away as Japan with the retreat of the yen against the greenback giving an early lift to equities in Tokyo. However fading prospects for fiscal stimulus moves eroded the early gains. Stocks in South Korea and Australia were lower as well. On a brighter note China's Shanghai Composite made strong gains in afternoon trading.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
FOMC Minutes Extend Dollar Gains

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
The Fed's gambit

Daily ShotTF
As things look after the latest Fed minutes we could see 2-3 rate hikes in 2016 the likelihood for an increase to happen next month already is just above 1/3 now.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Leave camp condemns “uncontrolled migration” as number of EU workers in UK reaches new record-high * Germany would be the biggest loser of Brexit, says leading German research institute * Brexit would reduce future house price rises in UK, new study finds * IDS attacks Cameron for ‘tossing aside’ sovereignty bill * Spain and Portugal win temporary budget reprieve from EU Commission * Poland faces prospect of EU sanctions for failing to uphold rule of law * Fewer than 200 Syrians resettled under EU-Turkey deal – as relocations from Italy and Greece fall woefully short of targets * EU Commission to propose Netflix carry at least 20% European content

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
The 40 MEPs who matter — Politics trumps economics

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Set To Open Red For The Year As Hawkish Fed Ignites "Risk Off"


FX UpdateTF
Fed waxes hawkish with explicit discussion of a June rate hike in the minutes USD bounds higher especially against the risky currencies. USD recovery broadens and extends as we eye next US data releases.

From the FloorTF
The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's April policy meeting sharply lifted expectations of a US rate hike in June boosting the dollar and knocking bonds gold risk currencies Asian stocks and other dollar-sensitive assets.

Brexit sattuisi Suomessakin – ja kovaa * Fedin haukkamainen kokouspöytäkirja vahvisti dollaria * Britannian työttömyysaste pysyi vakaana * EKP julkaisee pöytäkirjan huhtikuun kokouksestaan

Turvallisuus uhattunaSuomen Perusta
Raportti maahanmuutosta, turvallisuustilanteesta ja kansalaispartioista

Raju ehdotus Ruotsista: Valtio voisi jakaa kaikille rahaaTalSa
Ruotsin ja muiden keskuspankkien täytyy ehkä siirtyä helikopterirahan kaltaisiin radikaaleihin keinoihin, jos muu ei auta talouskasvun vauhdittamiseksi. Näin sanoo Ruotsin keskuspankin varajohtaja Cecilia Skingsley.