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Monday, May 23

23rd May - PMIs on the low side

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The European Union and the euro: this is a marriage made in hell The Telegraph

Growing like Spain: 1995-2007vox
Spain’s pre-crisis growth happened despite declining productivity – because of resource misallocation that was increased by corruption and crony capitalism.

Italy: Article IV Statement IMF

EU to propose new funds to stop migration at sourcePolitico

Likely a short term shock from Brexit, but the Treasury overdoes itOpen Europe

IMF won’t play ball with Angela Merkel without debt relief Politico
Greece Braces for More Austerity Amid EU-IMF Quarrel About Debt – BB
Greek parliament approves reforms in exchange for aid, debt relief – Reuters
Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis – IMF

Trends in euro are banks' business models, implications for stability – ECB
No One Knows How Corporate Europe Will Use its Bond Market Binge – WSJ

France PMI – Markit
Germany PMI – Markit
Eurozone PMI – Markit
PMIs signal modest downside risks to near-term euro growth – Pictet
Eurozone Business Growth "Unexpectedly" Slows Down To 16 Month Low – ZH
PMIs: No need to revise GDP forecast – Nordea

This Is Not A Drill. This Is The Real Thing.Tim Duy
June meeting is the real thing - an undoubtedly lively debate that could end with a rate hike. I think we narrowly avoid a rate hike, but at the cost of moving forward the next hike to the  July meeting.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Potential cacophony of Fed speakers this week * Today Euro -area PMIs and Fed speakers * Cliffhanger in Austria, important week for Greece * Reaffirmed pledge not to deliberately weaken the currencies by G7

Morning MarketsTF
The June rate-hike speculation is beginning to weigh on markets and that has also taken some of the steam out of the dollar rally as wait-and-see dominates sentiment.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Short Note to Start the Week

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
A brief thought on the G7

Daily ShotTF
With manufacturing contraction worsening good emloyment data is the bright spot for Japan. In the US and elsewhere we can see effects of an stabilizing oil price.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Treasury warns of immediate economic shock in event of Brexit as survey finds falling business support for EU among FTSE 350 * EU on tenterhooks as far-right and green candidates run neck-and-neck in Austrian presidential election * Cameron says EU referendum more important than general election amid escalating row over Turkey’s EU membership prospects * Greek parliament approves new raft of measures, paving way for release of more bailout cash * Far-right party enters Cypriot parliament for the first time * Rajoy willing to make extra cuts this year to comply with EU deficit target, leaked letter reveals * Erdoğan tells Europe to do more for refugees as the majority of Germans against EU-Turkey deal * 14 EU member states call on Commission to remove regulatory and non-regulatory barriers in the Digital Single Market

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Austria cliffhanger — Poland — G7

Futures Fade Early Bounce, Slide In Illiquid Tape As Yen Rises, Oil Drops


FX UpdateTF
Last week’s parade of hawkish Fed rhetoric provided a bounce for the greenback and this week offers few new US event risks ahead of next week’s US data avalanche. The Bank of Canada's meeting is in focus mid-week for CAD.

From the FloorTF
German giant Bayer has tabled an extraordinary cash offer for Monsanto but it might be too big to go through. Elsewhere Petrobras returning to bond market signals optimism for Brazil.

Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit hienoisessa kasvussa * Fedin Bullard pitää tänään puheen * EURUSD katkaisi laskuputkensa *​ Tällä viikolla päähuomio keskittyy Yellenin perjantaiseen esiintymiseen

Euroalue ja säästämisen paradoksiJaakko Kiander

TARGET2 on palannut Juhani Huopainen

Kokoomuksen arvioitava eurolinjansa uudelleenElina Lepomäki