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Sunday, June 12

12th Jun - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

US Schedule for WeekBill McBride

Economic CalendarBerenberg

5 Things to Watch in US Economics CalendarWSJ

Global Week AheadBB
Fed-BOE-BOJ Rates, Apple Meeting, Brexit

EU Week Ahead – WSJ

Wall St Week AheadReuters
Elusive S&P record looms as investors weigh data, Fed

Weighing the Week AheadJeff Miller
This week’s economic calendar is back to normal, with Wednesday’s FOMC announcement the highlight. Last Friday’s trading put the Brexit effects on the front burner, so I expect two themes for the week ahead. The first few days will be all about the Fed and any hints about the pace of rate increases. After the Fed meeting the emphasis will shift to the Brexit build-up, culminating next week.

EcoWeek – BNP Paribas

Week Ahead: Central banks and Brexit polls Nordea
In the coming week central banks will steal the spotlight with the Fed, BoE, BoJ and SNB announcing interest rates. A Fed hike is highly unlikely but we expect the door to be opened for a move in July or September. Also the BoE and SNB are expected to remain on the sidelines, while the BoJ might cut rates. In addition, US retail sales, industrial production and CPI numbers are due. UK data will be dominated by Brexit polls. In Sweden, CPI and unemployment data are out Tuesday and Friday.

Weekly FocusDanske Bank
US: retail sales, Fed meeting * Japan: BoJ meeting * China data

StrategyDanske Bank
There are substantial digital risks in GBP crosses, EUR/SEK and UK/European equities heading
into the UK’s EU referendum * We expect EUR/USD to fall near term both in case of a Brexit and a Bremain * The downward pressure on EUR/DKK will remain with or without a Brexit * Selectively, we expect DKK FI assets to perform both in case of a Brexit and a Bremain.

Week AheadHandelsbanken

UK WeeklyHandelsbanken

Global Views Weekly Scotiabank

Weekly FX Sentiment Report Scotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s
[free registration required]

Macro Weekly: Fed is pushed around by data ABN AMRO
Few important economic indicators were released in recent days. Nevertheless, some interesting conclusions can be drawn. Recent data seems to confirm that China’s imports are bottoming out. That is important for the global economy. The other important thing is that Fed chair Yellen, having – relatively successfully – tried to talk rate-hike expectations into the financial markets for some weeks has changed direction in response to deteriorating labour market data. Despite all this, the global economy is plodding along achieving modest and rather unspectacular growth.

US dollar slides on lower odds of a rate hike. We expect no rate hike this year and this should weigh on the dollar. Commodity currencies will likely be supported. …also RBA and RBNZ were less dovish supporting AUD and NZD. The yen sets to retest this year’s peak, but intervention is still unlikely.

A lower US dollar and higher commodity prices support EM FX. EM monetary policy decisions were mixed. RBI, NBP and COPOM left monetary policy unchanged… while the BoK surprised with a rate cut. More SGD strength envisaged in June; higher risk of October easing. Chinese yuan volatility and depreciation expectations decline.

Speculative PositioningMarc Chandler
Speculators Take Big Bites in the Futures Market

FX OutlookMarc Chandler
Greenback Proves Resilient

Week AheadMarc Chandler
Four Central Bank Meetings and More
Weekly Market Summary – The Fat Pitch
FX 4 Next WeekTF
The US dollar spent the week vacillating after the huge nonfarm payrolls drop. Risk appetite seemed to be suffering a headwind ahead of the weekend particularly in Europe and this informs our market view heading into next week as wobbly sentiment may plague markets as we head into the uncertainty of the UK referendum June 23.