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Wednesday, June 15

15th Jun - Fed still sees 2 hikes in 2016

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The ECB will run out of German bonds – ABN AMRO
The role of non-monetary financial institutions in financial intermediation – ECB
The challenge of low real interest rates for monetary policy – ECB

Turkey to miss visa-free travel deadline – Politico

Remain camp wants last-ditch EU talks on open borders – Politico
Surge in support for Brexit gives Remain just 1 point lead: poll – Politico
Norway to Britain: Don’t leave, you’ll hate it – Politico
Brexit could revitalize EU, says Commissioner G√ľnther Oettinger – Politico
The Post Brexit Budget – Tony Yates

Larry Summers: The Fed is making the same mistakes over and over again – WaPo
El-Erian: What the Fed Will and Won’t Do – View / BB

Statement – FED
Economic Projections – FED
Kocherlakota: The Fed Needs More Than One Direction – View / BB

The Fed Just Said Market Participants Were Right About Rates – WSJ
How the June Statement Changed from April – WSJ
The Market Reaction to the Fed in Six Charts – WSJ
Investors Solidify Views on a Slow-Go Fed – WSJ
Fed: Labor Market "Will Strengthen" But Slashes Rates Hike Trajectory – ZH
Fed leaves rate unchanged amid job market slowdown, Brexit fears – WaPo
Redacted Version of the June 2016 FOMC Statement – Aleph Merkel
Economists React: ‘Too Many Uncertainties’ – WSJ
Fed Softens Stance Slightly – Marc Chandler
Fed Skips June Increase as Six Officials See One 2016 Hike – BB
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, signals two hikes this year – Reuters

Jan von Gerich: Bonds: Ground sub-zeroNordea
Another boundary once considered insurmountable was breached, when the German 10-year yield hit negative territory. More than 85% of German government debt now trades at negative yields. While a sub-zero 10-year yield says a lot about the current market environment, the zero limit does not have the significance it once had any more. Despite the looming Brexit vote, the near-term risk picture is shifting towards a correction higher in yields, with ECB purchases strengthening the moves both ways.

Martin Enlund: Global: Brexit, not macro, in the driver's seat Nordea
Price-action over the past week or two probably mostly driven by technical purchases as market participants found themselves wrongfooted by the surge in Brexit likelihood. The lion’s share of these positioning adjustments should be done by now. Even if exit probability rises further, a jump from 40% to say 60% should matter much less than the recent surge from 20% to 40%. How much clarity the referendum will offer for markets is another matter worth pondering.

Kuroda and the BOJMarc Chandler

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Brexit fears prevail, hesitant FOMC to stand pat, BoJ to cut * July, September or even later? * Breaking below zero * JPY, CHF and USD benefit from safe haven flows, while GBP bears the brunt

Morning MarketsTF
Equity markets are showing signs of a cautious recovery after shares in Tokyo escaped a four-day losing streak and ended modestly higher helped by a weaker yen. But the underlying tone remains tinged with Brexit fears and the yield on the bellwether 10-year bund future has only just managed to claw its way above zero having pitched into the negative zone yesterday.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Four Developments Ahead of the FOMC Meeting

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Quantifying the Brexit premium and the Walking Dead, Season 8

Daily Market Comment – Polemic’s Pains

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Leave camp lays out more details of post Brexit plan as Osborne warns of more austerity in event of Leave vote * Splits emerge within Labour over future restrictions on free movement * Norwegian PM: Norway pays a price for not being able to take part in the EU decision making process * Brexit could revitalise the EU says German Commissioner * ECB would pledge to support markets in the event of Brexit * Rolls-Royce and Marks & Spencer chiefs warn prospect of Brexit affecting consumer confidence * EU member states strike deal on new rules for Money Market Funds * Greek bailout funds expected to be paid out by next week * Financial Transaction Tax faces last ditch talks * Merkel’s Union loses another point in the polls as AfD gains * Turkey to miss June deadline for visa-free travel into Schengen

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Desperation at No. 10 — Terror latest — MEP ethics

All Eyes On Yellen As Global Stocks Rebound Despite Brexit Fears, Record Low Yields


FX UpdateTF
As the market continues to obsess over the UK referendum the BoE and ECB have promised to keep markets orderly on the other side of a possible Brexit vote. Tonight’s FOMC meeting could prove a minor distraction.

From the FloorTF
A Brexit poll prediction for a narrow Remain victory has helped pull 10-year German bund yields out of negative territory and stabilised sterling.