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Editorial:Europe Needs Investment More Than Budget Rules – View / BB
Portugal is Europe's next looming economic disaster – BI
Greece under Troika rule – Simon Wren-Lewis
Brexit: Final countdown – Nordea
With three weeks to go to the UK referendum on EU membership, it still seems to be an open race. As we see it, all the arguments have been exchanged, and now it’s waiting for the result that will be out late on the 23rd or early on the 24th. In the attached presentation, we updated our take on the referendum and especially in case of an unexpected majority for the Brexiteers.
Yanis Varoufakis: The ECB’s Illusory Independence – Project Syndicate
In one sense, the ECB is a quintessentially independent central bank: No single government stands behind it, and it is expressly prohibited from standing behind any of the national governments whose central bank it is. And yet the ECB is the least independent central bank in the developed world.
The ECB Faces a June Conundrum – WSJ
US Labour Market Monitor – Danske Bank
May jobs report an important factor for Fed’s rate decision
How the Fed Stopped the “Corporate Profit Recession” – Wolf Street
Narayana Kocherlakota: There Goes the Fed's Credibility – View / BB
Global Economic Outlook – OECD
Stuck in low-growth trap: Policymakers need keep promises – OECD
OECD Blasts Governments for Slipping Into ‘Low-Growth Trap’ – BB
OECD Chief Economist: "urgent need" to deploy fiscal policy– Prime Economics
Why the global economy may need to get worse before it gets better – The Guardian
Can OPEC Surprise? – Marc Chandler
Interactive: How OPEC won the battle and lost the war – BB
Moore’s Law vs. Murphy’s Law in the financial system: who’s winning? – BIS
EM FX: changing driver – Nordea
Commodity prices have been the key driver of EM FX performance this year. The USD is gradually taking the driver’s seat as the Fed is being repriced. Fed-induced risk-off normally hits the largest current account deficits, like ZAR and TRY, the hardest. Bear in mind, though, that current account deficits are much lower today than when Bernanke first said “tapering”. The stronger USD is pushing USD/CNY towards the year-highs from January which risks prompting another round of capital outflows.
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Stocks slide after slump in oil prices; CNY fixing weakest since 2011 * US manufacturing revival to prove short-lived? * Chinese PMIs: no major surprises – no signs of improvement
Morning Markets – TF
June has got off to a surly start after Asian bourses tracked their US counterparts lower and sterling was pressured by opinion polls that upped the chances of a British exit from the EU.
Euro wrap-up – Daiwa
Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Moves Lower, but Sterling Can't get Out of its Own Way
Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
Daily Shot – TF
We've got some good new on Eurozone joblessness (Italy excepted) but there's also disappointing stats showing a slowdown in household lending in the bloc. Elsewhere Japan's economic difficulties persist and its labour shortages remain a problem to be solved.
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Former French Foreign Minister: EU needs “a pause” in further integration * Juncker: France gets leeway from EU Commission on deficit reduction “because it’s France!” * Bank of Italy Governor: EU rules should leave “greater scope” for state intervention in bank crises * Germany failing to deport failed asylum-seekers * €900 million from EU budget lost to fraud * US issues travel warning over possible terror attacks in Europe * ECJ legal advice: Companies can ban religious symbols, including headscarves * German Foreign Minister: Ease sanctions on Russia ‘step-by-step’
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Selmayr insider — France gets EC leeway because it’s France
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
Despite official confirmation overnight that Japan will delay a sales tax hike the yen headed back to the upside amid generally weak risk appetite. Elsewhere a fresh UK poll showing a stronger "Leave" vote than other recent polls pounded sterling for steep losses.
From the Floor – TF
Today's European open comes hot on the heels of a mixed Asian session characterised by Japanese caution mediocre Chinese data and a significant Australian GDP beat. The resulting risk-off climate sent the JPY up by nearly 1%.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiinan tehdasteollisuuden vakautuminen hauraalla pohjalla * USA:ssa yksityinen kulutus kiihtyi huhtikuussa * Punta heikentyi Brexit-riskien ajamana * Tänään julkaistaan USA:n teollisuuden luottamus (ISM)
Eurosta ulos vai euro uusiksi? – Vasemmistofoorumi
Puolueiden on opittava yrityksiltä – EVA Pamfletti– EVA