Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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on Twitter
LAST WEEK
Bonds
& Bullion Soar As Plunge-Protection-Team Rescues Stocks From Painful
Payrolls Puke
Bloomberg Best of
the Week
– BB
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule for
Week
– Bill
McBride
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Yellen,
JOLTS, Draghi, California Primary * Brazil rate decision, World Bank outlook,
Valeant earnings * Alphabet annual meeting, U.S. consumer sentiment, CFA exams
Migration,
Military Drills and Glyphosate
Wall St Week Ahead – Reuters
After
grim payrolls, focus turns to economy
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– Jeff
Miller
This
week’s economic calendar is the lightest in recent memory. After Monday,
FedSpeak fans will be disappointed, since we are entering the quiet period
before the next FOMC meeting. Like nature, pundits abhor a vacuum. To fill it
they will be asking: Is the weak employment report big news for stocks?
US:
Worrying signals from the labour market. Slack is up again. No more suspense
about the June FOMC meeting * EZ: As expected the ECB maintained its policy
unchanged and continues to monitor the situation carefully * Germany: High
savings by households and the non-financial sector pushed the current account
surplus to a historical high in 2015. However, the lack of investment harms the
country’s growth potential.
Week Ahead – Nordea
Next
week sees Fed Chair Yellen give a speech in Philadelphia on Monday and whole
batch of interesting data out of China. On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia
will announce its rate decision. Also next week, inflation figures from Denmark
and Norway on Friday and Norges Bank's Q2 regional network out Tuesday.
Weak
US job report should keep Fed off the trigger
Markets
are currently too complacent about Brexit risks, in our view, albeit our base
case is
that
the UK votes to stay in the EU * The Fed will be re-priced in the case of
‘Bremain’ – which together with US election risks could trigger higher long-end
UST yields * The USD should strengthen near term versus European currencies and
CNY * We have turned negative on
equities
on a likely Fed repricing and slashing of earnings estimates
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The
Fed has been signaling that it will hike interest rates over the Summer months.
The weak nonfarm payrolls could give the FOMC a reason to pause for thought,
but a hike over the next few months is a possibility. A big question is whether
it would be a good idea. Our view is that while there is a case for a hike, the
case for the Fed to remain on hold and be more cautious is much more powerful.
GBP
spot market is relatively calm… while the FX options market is far from that.
Fate of US dollar hinges on US employment report. JPY gains due to expectations
of lower BoJ easing. RBA and RBNZ to keep OCR unchanged next week.
A
weak month of May for EM FX. Moderate yuan depreciation path this year.
US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue on 5-7 June.
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Specs
Made Little Adjustment ahead of ECB and US Jobs
FX Outlook – Marc
Chandler
Dollar's
Rally Ends with a Bang, Look Out Below
Week
Ahead – Marc Chandler
Weekly Market
Summary
– The
Fat Pitch
SPY
has moved nearly 3% higher over the past two weeks. The S&P is now within
about 1% of where every rally in the past 16 months has faltered. Is it likely
to falter now as well?