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Tuesday, June 7

7th Jun - Eyes turning to FOMC

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Angela Merkel’s divided Union veers toward fallPolitico
German chancellor and Bavarian CSU leader Horst Seehofer are split over migration and the rise of the far-right.

What if Greece got massive debt relief but no one admitted it?FT

F. A. Hayek on Brexit – Lars Christensen
Dixon: Fiscal union has no place in EU Brexit plan – Reuters
Post Brexit EU fiscal policy – Tony Yates

The ECB’s momentous step into corporate asset purchases – FT
Press release ECB publishes its Convergence Report 2016 – ECB
Convergence Report 2016 – ECB

ECJ rules illegal migrants cannot be jailed – Politico
EU Court rules no jail for illegal migrants – BBC
EU Top Court Rulings on Migration Could Cause Stir – WSJ

US FOMC Review – Daiwa
Yellen did not repeat that a hike ‘in coming months’ could be appropriate – Danske Bank
Employment Report, Yellen, and More – Tim Duy
Yellen still signals rate hikes – but timing more uncertain – Nordea

The Law of Reflux vs Helicopter MoneyWorthwhile

Rethinking Policy at the IMFiMFdirect

Business, housing and credit cyclesECB

Bank capital structure and the credit channel of central bank asset purchasesECB


Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Yellen dampens expectations of summer hike, oil back above USD 50/bbl * Yellen concerned about weak job growth * Lion’s share of the USD correction now lies behind us * Swooning GBP as Brexit odds drop

Morning MarketsTF
Janet Yellen's Muhammad Ali-style shuffle has put the rate-hike trajectory back to just the one for the rest of the year ignitiing equities in the process.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Yen Bucks Heavier Dollar Tone

Daily Market Comment Macro Man
The declining stock of US equities

Daily ShotTF
The European Central Bank's buying spree has swollen its balance sheet but is the euro really ready to slide versus USD?

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Polls present mixed picture with both campaigns seen as dishonest but Remain marginally more so * WTO chief warns of “complex and drawn-out” trade negotiations after Brexit * NATO Secretary General backs UK staying in EU * EU Commission to decide in July on procedure for ratification of EU-Canada trade deal * UK and Germany at odds with France and Italy over EU implementation of bank capital rules * Die Welt Economics Editor: Brexit would be “a relief” for Europe * Leave campaign blames EU red tape for delays in approval of new cancer drug * Greece “has done 95% of changes necessary” to unlock bailout cash, EU Commission says

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
NATO’s Anaconda — Center-right split on Turkey — AP crowns Clinton

S&P Nears All Time High, Global Stocks Rally As Dovish Yellen Unleashes Animal Spirits


FX UpdateTF
Markets are celebrating the less hawkish Fed implications of last week’s weak US jobs report but traders had better hope that the US is merely suffering a temporary slow patch as bad news will eventually be bad news if the US is sliding into recession.

From the FloorTF
It's risk-on across the board this morning in everything from equities through emerging markets and even junk bonds after Fed chair Janet Yellen virtually ruled out a summertime rate hike in the US Saxo Bank's team of strategists explain in their morning conference call.

Pelastaako hallituksen veroporkkana ostovoiman heikentymiseltä? * Yellen puhui myönteiseen sävyyn USA:n talouskehityksestä *​ Euroalueen lopullinen ensimmäisen neljänneksen BKT julkaistaan *​ Saksan teollisuustuotanto kääntymässä positiiviseksi