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Thursday, June 2

2nd Jun - ECB sits still, OPEC uninteresting

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Lessons for the euro from early US monetary and financial historyBruegel
In this essay, Jeffry Frieden looks at the process of creating a monetary union in the United States and draws lessons for the EU.

Evans-Pritchard: Leave camp must accept that Norway model is the only safe way to exit EUThe Telegraph

Angela Merkel, the roman à clefPolitico

Monetary policy decisions – ECB
Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB
Remaining details of the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) – ECB
Macroeconomic projections June 2016 – ECB
ECB tweaks growth, inflation forecasts a shade higher – Reuters
ECB Stimulus Will Include Corporate Bonds Starting Next Week – BB
ECB: Done for today, not done for good – Nordea
El-Erian: Draghi's Message to European Political Leaders – View / BB
ECB – five takeaways – ABN AMRO
ECB on autopilot, sticks with very dovish message – Pictet
ECB waits for the full effects – Danske Bank
Feeble Economic Forecasts Leave ECB Watchers Puzzled – WSJ

Waiting For The Employment Report – Tim Duy
5 Things to Watch in the May Jobs Report – WSJ
Payrolls probably lowered by Verizon strike – jobs report preview – Nordea
The Verizon Strike and the May Employment Report – Bill McBride
U.S. private payrolls rise in May; weekly jobless claims fall – Reuters

With The OPEC Meeting Now In Session, Here Are The Latest Updates – ZH
Oil Drops After OPEC Fails To Reach Oil Freeze Agreement – ZH
OPEC Keeps Status Quo After Failing to Agree on Output Cap – BB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

It’s Draghi Day! * ECB and OPEC meetings in focus * Risk of a selloff if Draghi doesn’t strike a sufficient dovish tone * Yen rose against all G10 currencies, while PM Abe postposed sales tax hike

Morning MarketsTF
The Nikkei took a massive hit overnight as the yen strengthened significantly on the back of a market underwhelmed by Shinzo Abe's step back from an anticipated stimulus package.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Greenback Mostly Softer Ahead of ECB and ADP

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Equity model update

Daily ShotTF
Brexit risk now dwarves the Scottish independence vote and the UK general elections in terms of GBP implied volatility and UK inflation expectations have fallen as the market views Brexit as deflationary. Ireland's manufacturing activity is softening at least partly due to Brexit concerns while in Germany 70% of government bonds now have negative yields.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Rajoy: Brexit “would be very negative for everyone and from every perspective” * Ankara and Berlin on crash course as Bundestag to recognise Armenian genocide * Peter Lilley: Importance of trade deals “is grossly exaggerated” * European Commission issues negative opinion regarding the state of rule of law in Poland * New poll: Hollande would win only 14% of the vote in first round of presidential election * New research suggests Schools with large numbers of EU students 'perform better' * Migrant quotas to be pushed down the EU agenda by Slovakia * French journalist: If UK stays in EU, it will “ruin our lives like never before”

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
The political-industrial-golf complex — EBS corridor talk

Global Markets Flat, Coiled Ahead Of Today's Risk Events: OPEC And The ECB

Frontrunning – ZH

From the FloorTF
Much attention will be focussed on Vienna today as by a curious coincidence the city hosts two important events – the European Central Bank's June policy-setting meeting and oil cartel Opec's semi-annual conference its 169th.

EKP tarkkailulinjalla * USA:n tehdasteollisuuden luottamus (ISM) vahvistui yllättäen *​ OPEC kokoustaa tänään *​ Japanin kulutusveron korotusta lykättiin jälleen