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Wednesday, June 8

8th Jun - EU losing faith

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Significant opposition in key countries to an ever closer EU– PEW
Favorable Opinion of EU Plunges Everywhere, Especially France – Mike Shedlock
Brussels briefing: what Europe thinks in charts – FT  

These Are The Bonds The ECB Is Now Buying – ZH
The ECB must change courseDeutsche Bank
Why the ECB’s Impact On Corporate Bonds Has Been Smaller Than It Seems – WSJ

The Global Economy’s Dismal Outlook in 6 ChartsWSJ

Majors & Scandies: June 2016 FX forecastNordea
Our global scenario remains largely intact. Developed markets will continue to perform decently despite headwinds including the temporary tightening of financial conditions earlier this year. Our forecast revisions are marginal, including a lower EUR/USD forecast reflecting a somewhat more aggressive rate hiking pace from the Federal Reserve.

Majors & Scandies: June 2016 central bank and rates forecasts Nordea
We have changed our calls for the ECB, the Fed and the BoE. For the ECB we postpone the expected next easing package to Q4 this year, while we move forward the next Fed rate hike to September and see two hikes this year, up from previously one hike. While our baseline is still based on no Brexit, we postpone the first BoE rate hike to Q1 2017. We do not expect German long yields to slide into negative territory, but it will be a close call for the 10-year yield.

EM FX: June 2016 financial forecasts Nordea
The key driver of EM FX performance has changed from commodity prices to the USD.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

China imports beat, inflation likely just below 3%, yields lower despite higher oil * USD broadly weaker as oil rises above USD 51/bbl * Bund yield near all-time lows * Firming unit labour costs fail to lift summer Fed hike chance

Morning MarketsTF
With the US dollar broadly weaker gold is continuing its rally while crude oil is successfully defending the psychologically important $50/barrel level bolstered by dollar weakness and expectations of inventory declines.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Currencies Broadly Stable, but Greenback is Vulnerable

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Is China playing silly buggers again?

Daily ShotTF
More economic improvements emerge in the Eurozone with GDP revised upwards and German output beating forecasts. But Brexit fears are mounting and volatility spiked as the opposing sides run neck and neck.

Daily Press Summary Open Europe
ECJ rules illegal migrants cannot be imprisoned for merely crossing borders within Schengen area * EU Commission proposes €62bn investment fund to boost migration cooperation with Middle East and African countries * Austria’s far-right party files lawsuit disputing presidential election result * Eleven member states complain about German and French protectionism * New Pew poll: Majority of Europeans want UK to stay and support EU reform

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Draghi dominates — EU pay to stay deal — Clinton’s cracked ceiling

Futures Levitate To Session Highs As ECB Enters The Bond Market; Crude Hits $51


FX UpdateTF
Friday saw a dramatic repricing of the Fed outlook after a disastrous employment report. The follow on action has been largely lacking in the bigger currencies as the market nervously awaits the FOMC next week but more so the Brexit vote the week after next.

From the FloorTF
Flight to bonds may make sense in the runup to the EU referendum vote in the UK but if there is a Stay vote a massive unwinding could turn ugly after June 23.

Rumien lukujen kavalkadi (osa n) * Kiinan vienti laski odotuksia enemmän toukokuussa * Japanin ensimmäisen neljänneksen BKT-lukuja korjattiin ylöspäin *​ Norjan alueraportti povaa kevyttä kasvua toiselle neljännekselle

Helikopteriraha ja EKP:n mandaattiRoger Wessman