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Monday, June 27

27th Jun - Brexit hangover

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Making the Eurozone more resilient: What is needed? voxeu
Paul Krugman: Against Eurotimidity NYT

European banking supervision: Compelling start, lingering challengesvoxeu

5 takeaways from Spain’s repeat elections Politico
Spain: Swing back to mainstream after Brexit Nordea
Spain’s political stalemate continues ABN AMRO

BREXIT: Day 1 after UK’s decision to leave the EU – Danske Bank
How to Leave the EU – The Short Answer – WSJ
Brexit: what now for the ECB? – Pictet
Olivier Blanchard: Brexit: What Happens Next Week, Next Month? – PIIE
What markets think Brexit means for the Bank of England – FT

The Article 50 Brexit clause explained: the FT’s annotated text – FT
The UK-EU Separation: How Fast Does It Happen? – PIIE
Bank Credit Default Swaps Surge on Brexit Fears – WSJ
Brexit: ‘An immense blow to the European project’ – Presseurop
Just how bad will Brexit be, and can it be undone? – Simon Wren-Lewis

Merkel: Britain to decide on start of EU separation talks – Politico
France and Germany hatch a plan to save EU – Politico
Angela Merkel takes center stage on Brexit – Politico
Germany, France and Italy say UK must launch Brexit process – Politico
Schäuble's Secret Brexit Plan – Handelsblatt

The EU will treat Britain like Greece – The Telegraph
Why can’t we have an amicable divorce with the EU? – The Spectator
European political response in the days after – Deutsche Bank
Referenda in the EU: Thinking about who might be next – Deutsche Bank
Pound To New Lows; 10Y Slide Under 1%; Banks Halted After Crashing – ZH

10 ways to leave EU lover; scenarios for Brexit – Reuters
UK Seeks Divorce, Rajoy Needs a Shotgun Marriage – Marc Chandler
Brexit Leaves Markets Primed for a Rate Cut From BoE – WSJ
Early negotiating positions staked out as Europe reacts to Brexit – Open Europe
Blanchard: How the Eurozone Can Be Strengthened After Brexit – PIIE

Day 4 after UK’s decision to leave the EU – Danske Bank

Could Fed Potentially Reverse Course and Cut Rates?WSJ

Aurelija Augulyte: FX: non-event?Nordea
With some blood and panic, the Friday was just a big correction in an illiquid market, which should not last given the central bank put. Ultimately, the macro data should determine the risk sentiment from here - and calls for the worst are way premature...

Martin Enlund: Global: so, what do we actually know?Nordea
Here we are, a few days after the doomsday referendum, and now everyone is asking themselves what the outcome means. Given the low visibility due to political turmoil within the UK and an apparent split within the EU, maybe it's better to look at what we actually do know...

Sliding back to the gold standard?Scott Sumner

Developed Market Bond Yields Crash To Record Lows ZH
European Banking Stocks Collapse As UK Default Risk SpikesZH

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Brexit hangovers, Bunds and Treasuries in demand, JPY in haven * After Brexit, a guide to the next steps * German and US yields drop massively while the periphery bears the brunt * The GBP tanks as flows seek shelter in JPY and USD

Morning MarketsTF
Uncertainty rules in this traumatised post-Brexit world as markets reeling from the impact of last week's shock vote try to find new assumptions for pricing equities commodities and currencies.

Daily Press Summary Open Europe
Osborne breaks silence in bid to calm markets, as Merkel sees “no need to be nasty” to UK in EU exit talks * France keen on speedy EU exit talks, as Germany urges restraint * UK’s EU Commissioner Lord Hill resigns and warns UK may end up having to sign up to financial rules written by the rest of the EU * Sturgeon says second Scottish independence referendum “highly likely” as she raises the spectre of Scotland vetoing Brexit process * Spanish re-run election again delivers fragmented parliament * Labour in chaos as a number of shadow cabinet ministers resign in protest to Corbyn’s leadership * Leave campaigners under fire after retreating from key campaign pledges * Banks begin to prepare for changing UK relationship with Europe * German voters think Brexit will not trigger domino effect * Italian government considering injecting up to €40bn into its banks

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Spain remains deadlocked — Brexit chaos

European Stocks, US Futures Extend Slide On UK Chaos, Pound Carnage


FX UpdateTF
After the trauma of last week’s Brexit this week offers the transition to a “What now?” phase in which the market tries to decide where the focus should lie and whether the news is priced in.

From the FloorTF
Markets remain in the Brexit vote's thrall as major currency pairs continue to see developing world-style volatility and hedge funds go all-in on gold. Meanwhile Saxo chief economist Steen Jakobsen says commenters continue to miss the point: the social contract is broken.

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Miten Brexitistä eteenpäin? * Britannian EU-eroa puoltava äänestystulos oli suuri yllätys markkinoilla * Fed, EKP ja BoE kokoustavat tällä viikolla *​ Espanja äänesti uudelleen

Sinn: EU:n on uudistuttava selviytyäkseen Brexit-kriisistäYLE
Tunnetun ekonomistin Hans-Werner Sinnin mielestä "Brysselin eliitti" on haalinut itselleen liikaa valtaa ja se puuttuu asioihin, jotka eivät sille kuulu. Sinn ei kuitenkaan halua kuopata EU:ta, vaan toivoo suuria uudistuksia unionin toimintakyvyn parantamiseksi.

EuromelankoliaaWille Rydman

Brexit ja Suomi – Peter Nyberg
EU:n perustajajäsenet koolla Berliinissä - Verkkouutiset
Sixten Korkman Ylellä: Syvempi integraatio nyt on väärinkäsitys – Verkkouutiset
Tyhmät äänestää väärin – Perttu Hillman
Stubb povaa Britanniasta uutta Norjaa – "Meidän ei pidä olla lapsellisia" – TalSa
Risto E.J. Penttilä: Junckerin linja ei voi olla Suomen linja – Verkkouutiset
Perussuomalaisten Terho: EU-kansanäänestys ei vielä ajankohtainen – Yle