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Monday, June 20

20th Jun - Remain's rise helps stocks, GBP



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EUROPE
EC Needs To Understand All Members Are Equal to the Pacts – euinside

Visions of Europe – John Kay
Why the European Union is not, and should not be, the United States of Europe

German OMT decision: Probably no short-term implications for the ECB – Nordea

Italy's Five Star Inflicts Setback on Renzi With Anti-Elite Win in Rome – BB

Europe’s Wake-Up Call – Project Syndicate
There’s a silver lining to the dark clouds of populist Euroskepticism crowding in on the EU. In Brussels and a number of Europe’s capitals, leaders know that the EU must respond to mounting discontent, and that – at long last – there is political capital to be gained in doing so.

Refugee crisis update: EU-Turkey Agreement teeters on the brink – DB

  BREXIT
IMF: Britain will be materially worse off if it backs Brexit – Politico
Great Britain Is Imploding – euinside
Uncertainty Clouds the United Kingdom’s Economic Prospects – IMF
United Kingdom: Selected Issues – IMF
IMF Revives Recession Warning for U.K. Economy Over Brexit Vote – BB

‘Brexit’ could send shock waves across U.S. and global economy – WaPo
Roger Bootle: Remain’s models are built on poor foundations – The Telegraph
Saxo on Brexit: The day after – TF
Saxo on Brexit: Markets aren't worried – why not? – TF
Brexit would expose Germany's vulnerable underbelly – TF

What Is Brexit? – At A Glance – WSJ
Europe Hurts if Britain Goes. It's Worse if Britain Stays. – View / BB
Who to Trust on Brexit Predictions: The Pollsters or the Bettors? – WSJ
If Sterling has Not Peaked, It has Come Pretty Close – Marc Chandler
Brexit: theory vs practice, charted – FT

Brexit and the Risk Trade, in Eight Charts – WSJ
What's Next & What Happens After The Brexit Vote – ZH
After Brexit: Roadmap for a leap in the dark – Reuters


UNITED STATES
  FEDERAL RESERVE
The St. Louis Fed’s New Characterization of the Outlook for the U.S. Economy – FED
Bullard's New Paradigm and the Federal Reserve – Marc Chandler


REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea
Rexit instead of Brexit, Pound having a party, Five Star Movement takes Rome * Remain camp has pulled back into a narrow lead * Rexit instead of Brexit? * GBP is on a tear

Morning Markets – TF
Brexit fears were in retreat today as British voters get ready to head to the polls on Thursday. Optimism about the EU staying together gave sentiment a lift in Asia. Shares surged higher in Tokyo and Sydney.

Euro wrap-up – Daiwa

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Market Takes Another Step Away from the Edge, Dollar and Yen Ease

Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
Monday morning bullet points

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
EU referendum campaigning resumes with polls neck-and-neck after small shift to Remain *
Open Europe publishes comprehensive guide of what to look out for on EU referendum night * Newspapers split over EU referendum question * Macron warns UK will have to continue to pay into EU budget in return for market access while poll reveals German executives say Brexit would be negative for Germany’s economy * New Spanish poll suggests leftist bloc could secure absolute majority * Big setback for Renzi as Five-Star Movement wins mayoral elections in Rome and Turin * German Constitutional Court to issue final verdict on ECB bond-buying scheme * EU to sign economic partnership agreement with Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Europe’s turning point — Refugee day — Jo Cox event

US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Soar, Pound Surges Most Since 2008 As Brexit Odds Tumble

Frontrunning – ZH

From the Floor – TF
The tilt in the Brexit referendum mood towards a 'remain' vote has derailed the safe-haven flight sending precious metal gold back below $1300/oz.


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Brexit-äänestys saa markkinoiden jakamattoman huomion * Fedin pääjohtaja Janet Yellen on USA:n kongressin kuultavana tällä viikolla * Norjan keskuspankki pitää korkotason ennallaan torstaina *​ Fedin Bullard antoi perjantaina hyvin kyyhkymäisen lausunnon

Jan Hurri: Vaikea myöntää – Brexit-riski on oire eikä ongelma – TalSa
Britannian EU-eron mahdollisuus on jo ennen ensi viikon kansanäänestystä lisännyt politiikan ja talouden jännitteitä. Mutta Brexit ei ole varsinainen ongelma, vaan yksi uusi oire moniongelmaisen EU:n kriisissä.