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Monday, June 20

20th Jun - Remain's rise helps stocks, GBP

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EC Needs To Understand All Members Are Equal to the Pactseuinside

Visions of EuropeJohn Kay
Why the European Union is not, and should not be, the United States of Europe

German OMT decision: Probably no short-term implications for the ECBNordea

Italy's Five Star Inflicts Setback on Renzi With Anti-Elite Win in RomeBB

Europe’s Wake-Up CallProject Syndicate
There’s a silver lining to the dark clouds of populist Euroskepticism crowding in on the EU. In Brussels and a number of Europe’s capitals, leaders know that the EU must respond to mounting discontent, and that – at long last – there is political capital to be gained in doing so.

Refugee crisis update: EU-Turkey Agreement teeters on the brinkDB

IMF: Britain will be materially worse off if it backs Brexit – Politico
Great Britain Is Imploding – euinside
Uncertainty Clouds the United Kingdom’s Economic Prospects – IMF
United Kingdom: Selected Issues – IMF
IMF Revives Recession Warning for U.K. Economy Over Brexit Vote – BB

‘Brexit’ could send shock waves across U.S. and global economy – WaPo
Roger Bootle: Remain’s models are built on poor foundations – The Telegraph
Saxo on Brexit: The day after – TF
Saxo on Brexit: Markets aren't worried – why not? – TF
Brexit would expose Germany's vulnerable underbelly – TF

What Is Brexit? – At A Glance – WSJ
Europe Hurts if Britain Goes. It's Worse if Britain Stays. – View / BB
Who to Trust on Brexit Predictions: The Pollsters or the Bettors? – WSJ
If Sterling has Not Peaked, It has Come Pretty Close – Marc Chandler
Brexit: theory vs practice, charted – FT

Brexit and the Risk Trade, in Eight Charts – WSJ
What's Next & What Happens After The Brexit Vote – ZH
After Brexit: Roadmap for a leap in the dark – Reuters

The St. Louis Fed’s New Characterization of the Outlook for the U.S. Economy – FED
Bullard's New Paradigm and the Federal Reserve – Marc Chandler

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Rexit instead of Brexit, Pound having a party, Five Star Movement takes Rome * Remain camp has pulled back into a narrow lead * Rexit instead of Brexit? * GBP is on a tear

Morning MarketsTF
Brexit fears were in retreat today as British voters get ready to head to the polls on Thursday. Optimism about the EU staying together gave sentiment a lift in Asia. Shares surged higher in Tokyo and Sydney.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Market Takes Another Step Away from the Edge, Dollar and Yen Ease

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Monday morning bullet points

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
EU referendum campaigning resumes with polls neck-and-neck after small shift to Remain *
Open Europe publishes comprehensive guide of what to look out for on EU referendum night * Newspapers split over EU referendum question * Macron warns UK will have to continue to pay into EU budget in return for market access while poll reveals German executives say Brexit would be negative for Germany’s economy * New Spanish poll suggests leftist bloc could secure absolute majority * Big setback for Renzi as Five-Star Movement wins mayoral elections in Rome and Turin * German Constitutional Court to issue final verdict on ECB bond-buying scheme * EU to sign economic partnership agreement with Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Europe’s turning point — Refugee day — Jo Cox event

Global Stocks Soar, Pound Surges Most Since 2008 As Brexit Odds Tumble


From the FloorTF
The tilt in the Brexit referendum mood towards a 'remain' vote has derailed the safe-haven flight sending precious metal gold back below $1300/oz.

Brexit-äänestys saa markkinoiden jakamattoman huomion * Fedin pääjohtaja Janet Yellen on USA:n kongressin kuultavana tällä viikolla * Norjan keskuspankki pitää korkotason ennallaan torstaina *​ Fedin Bullard antoi perjantaina hyvin kyyhkymäisen lausunnon

Jan Hurri: Vaikea myöntää – Brexit-riski on oire eikä ongelmaTalSa
Britannian EU-eron mahdollisuus on jo ennen ensi viikon kansanäänestystä lisännyt politiikan ja talouden jännitteitä. Mutta Brexit ei ole varsinainen ongelma, vaan yksi uusi oire moniongelmaisen EU:n kriisissä.