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Thursday, June 16

16th Jun - Brexit all the rage

Previously on MoreLiver’s:


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The time of Juncker’s troublesPolitico
Political missteps, personal health issues, doubts about effectiveness and rising Euroskepticism impair Commission chief’s self-declared mission to save the EU.

Euro Area: Article IV Statement IMF

Brussels is in Brexit denial – Politico
Editorial: ‘Leave’ would diminish both Britain and Europe – The Economist
Brexit’s First 100 Days Promise Chaos, Fear, Damage LimitationBB
Brexit despair – Simon Wren-Lewis
Bank of England Review: Waiting for the referendum – Danske Bank
BoE review: BoE repeats Brexit warning – Nordea
BOE Ups Ante on Brexit With Warning of Global Economic Harm – BB
Clive Crook: How Europe Pushed Britain Toward the Door – View / BB
Steen Jakobsen: How a Brexit would play out – TF
Brexit: What Are the Consequences? – WSJ

Impact of Non-performing loans in Europe and the US – Deutsche Bank
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2016 – ECB
The euro area fiscal stance – ECB
Country-specific recommendations for fiscal policies under the European Semester – ECB

Fed confirms ‘wait and see’-mode – Brexit a potential game changer – Danske Bank
Fed lowers path for rate hike normalization – ABN AMRO
The Market Scoffs at Fed Dot Plot – WSJ
Fed lowers rate projections but markets still don’t buy it – TF
US FOMC Review – Daiwa
Fed still sees two rate hikes in 2016 but lowers rate path longer out – Nordea
Janet Yellen’s battle between fantasy and fact – WaPo

BoJ: saving the bazooka Nordea
The BoJ refrained from easing monetary policy today, likely due to the uncertain outcome of the Brexit vote next week. The lack of action has sent the equities down and the yen stronger.

BOJ Keeps Policy Unchanged Even as Kuroda Warns on YenBB
Kuroda holds off ahead of Japan election, U.K. vote on Brexit * Majority of economists see central bank moving at next meeting

Macro Thinking: FOMC, USD, and EUMarc Chandler

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Brexit or not, global yields are set to stay low for now

Monthly Commodity UpdateABN AMRO
The sun keeps shining on commodities

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Lowered Fed rate path, BoJ decides to wait, still weak risk appetite * Important Brexit polls today * US Treasuries rally in the aftermath of the Fed * JPY surges on BoJ inaction

Morning MarketsTF
Frantic investors are piling money into safe-haven assets after Fed chair Janet Yellen's Brexit warning overnight. With the BoJ also holding off once again from a currency intervention USDJPY broke the 104.0 mark in the hour before the European open.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Markets are Anxious, Yen Soars

Daily Market Comment Macro Man
Rumbling and grumbling

Daily Shot – TF

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Osborne and Carney come under fire from Leave campaign * Theresa May calls for “further reform” of EU free movement * Sarkozy: Brexit debate “should have been an opportunity to speed up change in Europe” * Süddeutsche Zeitung: EU preparing for “wild” Brexit * Gove defends claim his father’s business was destroyed by the EU after Gove Senior says he sold it voluntarily * Politico investigation reveals concerns about Juncker’s political isolation and state of health * Leave camp faces legal action for claiming support from some of Britain’s biggest businesses * French Finance Minister: UK-based financial firms would lose ‘passport’ to do business throughout EU after Brexit * FT backs continued EU membership, Spectator comes out in favour of Brexit * Fed says risk of Brexit one of the factors behind decision to hold interest rates

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Juncker in trouble — Brexit — EEAS’ Le Roy resigns

Global Stocks Continue To Plunge As Central Banks Disappoint, Brexit Looms


FX UpdateTF
USDJPY and several other JPY crosses were slammed to new cycle lows losses as the Fed was able to clear the market’s bar of dovish expectations with a hefty adjustment lower in the forward rate guidance while the BoJ passed on further action.

From the FloorTF
Thursday finds global Financial markets battling turbulent waters after a dovish Federal Reserve statement last night sent the dollar sharply lower against the yen which itself is benefitting from the Brexit-inspired risk-off sentiment and the Bank of Japan's decision overnight to hold monetary policy unchanged.

Epävarmuus EU-jäsenyydestä nakertaa Britannian kasvua * Fed piti korkotason ennallaan ja lausuntonsa kyyhkymäisenä * Ruotsin asuntojen hinnat laskivat toukokuussa *​ Englannin ja Sveitsin keskuspankeilta ei tänään muutoksia rahapolitiikkaan

Aki Kangasharju: Brexit pelottaa – mutta ei toteuduNordea
EU:sta eroa hakevat ovat siirtyneet johtoon Britannian mielipidetiedusteluissa. Brexit ei kuitenkaan toteudu – ainakaan, jos skottien kokemuksilla tai epävarmojen käyttäytymisellä on ennustevoimaa.