Morning
briefings + surprise European news from the ECB, good QE piece from UBS and Pictet's monthly report.
Weekender: Views & Off-Topics my views, Finnish articles,
off-topics
Weekender: Weekly Support weekly reviews and previews (updated)
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
A Tokyo holiday ensured a
quiet Asian session with risk currencies locked at slightly higher levels after
the strong rebound seen towards Friday's close. Trading with a positive bias
was the name of the game though the rally did run out of steam.
European markets are likely to open in the
green Monday ahead of Eurozone CPI data which is expected to show a steady annual inflation rate. Market
speculation that China might take measures to boost the economy has spurred investor
sentiment.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The empire manufacturing PMI will be watched closely in the
market as we await Bernanke’s semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate
tomorrow. The weakness in job growth will keep the Fed alert and we still see a
good chance of additional easing.
Morning Briefing – BNY
Mellon
EURO CRISIS: ECB SURPRISE
ECB Demands Impairment For Senior Spanish
Bondholders; Eurocrats Resist – ZH
What's It Mean? – Mish’s
It’s sunk costs all the way down – A Fistful
of Euros
So: Ireland’s critical error was to protect legacy bondholders who were completely
stuck (the money was long since lent), but now that Ireland made that error, we can’t let Spain come up with a better
policy because then there would be questions about Ireland.
Pick The Subordinated Bond Out – ZH
OTHER
Waiting for direction – Humble
Student of The Markets
This stock market has been a difficult one for
traders and investors alike.
Does QE Really Work? The Evidence To Date – ZH
UBS: Empirical studies of the effects of the Fed's balance sheet operations suggest that QE designed to address general economic malaise is less potent than a program targeted at a specific market dysfunction.
UBS: Empirical studies of the effects of the Fed's balance sheet operations suggest that QE designed to address general economic malaise is less potent than a program targeted at a specific market dysfunction.
A Weak Start to Earnings Season – Zacks / PragCap
We have results from only 32 S&P 500
companies at this stage, but what we have seen thus far — in terms of the
actual reports as well as the pre-announcements — do not inspire much
confidence about the rest of the earnings season…By the end of next week, we
will have a much more representative sample to judge the quality of this
earnings season, as by then we will have seen results from almost a quarter of
all S&P 500 results.
Perspectives July – Pictet
(pdf)
While the European authorities now have more
policy flexibility, Europe’s common resources are still insufficient to meet all the commitments
of the over-indebted states. More fundamentally, we see no path towards
restoring the competitiveness of the South, whose economies continue to shrink.
Their public accounts again show worrying signs of deterioration. The next
summit, of the euro finance ministers, takes place on 9 July.