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Tuesday, July 31

31st Jul - US Open

Not much to say - expectations on the ECB and the FED continue being downgraded, but market reactions continue being muted. Currently continuously updated specials: ECB WATCH and FED WATCH.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News & Recap – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Süddeutsche: France and Italy favour giving the ESM “virtually unlimited firepower” via ECB liquidity

Morning MarketBeat: Poor Earnings Not Just Shareholders’ Problem – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: Strong and Steady – Macro and Cheese
FX: Hurry Up and Wait – Marc to Market
All Hands on Deck or Abandon Ship for the EUTF Market Advisors

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Temptations of a Peseta default in SpainThe Telegraph
What is significant is that Spanish dissidents are at last gaining a platform in their own press. The debate is joined. These arguments are gaining traction, and will prevail in my opinion, determining the next phase of world economic history (if the Germans don't beat them to it by pulling the plug first)..

What Next for Spain? PIMCO
As part of its bank recapitalisation programme, Spain has ceded fiscal sovereignty, and this is a positive step toward resolving the euro debt crisis.  We believe its eurozone partners should now make good on their summit agreement to use European Financial Stability Fund and European Stability mechanism instruments in a “flexible and efficient” manner.  In our view, a less decisive policy response is the likely outcome, and investors should continue to be cautious on periphery debt and look outside the eurozone for more attractive assets.

Regional debt in Italy is not like regional debt in Spainalphaville / FT
UBS: Italian regional debt is a non–problem. In virtue of its centralized administrative structure, Italian public debt and all related problems weigh almost entirely on the shoulders of the central government.

The changing ingredients of that Swiss cakealphaville / FT
The SNB released its first half results on Tuesday morning and revealed it has had more difficulty diversifying than many expected — or, to put it another way, it has held on to far more euros than many thought it would. (also comments from Citi and Nomura)

EUROPE: ECB (see also my Special)
Did Draghi act on his own?Sober Look
Now the ECB has been painted into a corner. They can either follow Draghi's lead without fully agreeing with him or they pause to deliberate on this matter and disappoint the markets. Both outcomes seem rather unsettling.

Quick Euro UpdateTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Seems like a lot of uncertainty heading into this ECB meeting, despite financial market participant's understandably crystal-clear interpretation of Draghi's now famous remarks.

ECB (excluding Draghi) seems to have no idea what Draghi is talking aboutASA
There are good reasons to believe that this could turn into major disappointment.  High expectation aside, the comments made by Draghi seems to be made on his own without any discussion, let alone agreement, with his fellow colleagues of the ECB Governing Council.

More on Draghi’s “The ECB is All In” Bluffnaked capitalism
Markets expect the ECB to announce something concrete after their meeting this Thursday, but given that Draghi ambushed its Governing Council, and the northern country members remain opposed to bond buying, it’s probable that if any commitments is made this week, it will be underwhelming. And tellingly, Draghi is looking like a leader whose command of the situation is faltering.

Heat Rises on Central Banks WSJ
Fed, ECB Officials Convene This Week as Markets Look for New Growth Measures

Mario Draghi Shows the Power of ExpectationsMacro and Other Market Musings
We are on the cusp of another global economic crisis and Mario Draghi is the one individual who could prevent it.  All he needs to do is don his Jedi or Chuck Norris outfit.  Putting those outfits on would be a lot easier if the ECB adopted a nominal GDP level target.

The Reality Of The Rest Of Draghi's 'Believe-Me' SpeechZH
UBS: Put another way, it seems to us that he was simply stating that elevated sovereign risk premia impair the transmission of monetary policy as they raise the cost of bank borrowing… More broadly, it seems evident that the ECB does not have a mandate to create the informal fiscal transfer union that a cap on peripheral yields would ultimately imply.

Can Super Mario save the euro?Hugo Dixon / Reuters
Super Mario is now warming to the idea of lending to the ESM, according to Bloomberg, even though that’s not part of his immediate plan. If Draghi does this, he’ll have to find a way to eat his words without losing credibility. If not, he will have to rely on second-best options with all their drawbacks. Mind you, it’s the job of super heroes to get out of tight spots.

Mirabile Dictu! ECB Chief Draghi Being Investigated for Membership in the Group of Thirtynaked capitalism
And the charge certainly looks valid. Draghi should not be involved with the G30 while he is active at the ECB. And if the EU Obudsman does find Draghi’s membership to be a conflict of interest, that has to be just as true for the other EU central bankers that are current participants.

ECB chief under scrutiny for alleged conflict of interestseuobserver
The EU ombudsman has launched an investigation into alleged conflict of interest by European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi due to his membership in a club of top bankers, the Group of Thirty (G30).

Cult FiguresBill Gross / PIMCO
​The long-term history of inflation adjusted returns from stocks shows a persistent but recently fading 6.6% real return since 1912. The legitimate question that market analysts, government forecasters and pension consultants should answer is how that return can be duplicated in the future. Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies over the next few years and even decades.
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