Not much to say - expectations on the ECB and the FED continue being downgraded, but market reactions continue being muted. Currently
continuously updated specials: ECB WATCH and FED WATCH.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
News &
Recap – RanSquawk
/ ZH
Frontrunning
– ZH
The Lunch
Wrap – FT
Emerging
N.Y. headlines – FT
Today’s
front pages – presseurop
Daily press
summary – Open
Europe
Süddeutsche:
France and Italy favour giving the ESM “virtually unlimited firepower” via ECB liquidity
Morning
MarketBeat: Poor Earnings Not Just Shareholders’ Problem – WSJ
Broker Note
Briefing – WSJ
Morning
Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear
Dairy: Strong and Steady – Macro
and Cheese
FX: Hurry
Up and Wait – Marc to
Market
All Hands on Deck or Abandon Ship for the EU – TF Market Advisors
All Hands on Deck or Abandon Ship for the EU – TF Market Advisors
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EUROPE
What is significant is that Spanish dissidents
are at last gaining a platform in their own press. The debate is joined. These
arguments are gaining traction, and will prevail in my opinion, determining the
next phase of world economic history (if the Germans don't beat them to it by
pulling the plug first)..
As part of its bank recapitalisation
programme, Spain has ceded fiscal sovereignty, and this is a positive step toward
resolving the euro debt crisis. We
believe its eurozone partners should now make good on their summit agreement to
use European Financial Stability Fund and European Stability mechanism
instruments in a “flexible and efficient” manner. In our view, a less decisive policy response
is the likely outcome, and investors should continue to be cautious on
periphery debt and look outside the eurozone for more attractive assets.
UBS: Italian regional debt is a
non–problem. In virtue of its centralized administrative structure, Italian
public debt and all related problems weigh almost entirely on the shoulders of
the central government.
The changing ingredients of that Swiss cake – alphaville
/ FT
The SNB released its first half results on
Tuesday morning and revealed it has had more difficulty diversifying than many
expected — or, to put it another way, it has held on to far more euros than
many thought it would. (also comments from Citi and Nomura)
Did Draghi act on his own? – Sober Look
Now the ECB has been painted into a corner.
They can either follow Draghi's lead without fully agreeing with him or they
pause to deliberate on this matter and disappoint the markets. Both outcomes
seem rather unsettling.
Quick Euro Update – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Seems like a lot of uncertainty heading into
this ECB meeting, despite financial market participant's understandably
crystal-clear interpretation of Draghi's now famous remarks.
ECB (excluding Draghi) seems to have no idea
what Draghi is talking about – ASA
There are good reasons to believe that this could turn into major disappointment. High expectation aside, the comments made by Draghi seems to be made on his own without any discussion, let alone agreement, with his fellow colleagues of the ECB Governing Council.
There are good reasons to believe that this could turn into major disappointment. High expectation aside, the comments made by Draghi seems to be made on his own without any discussion, let alone agreement, with his fellow colleagues of the ECB Governing Council.
More on Draghi’s “The ECB is All In” Bluff – naked
capitalism
Markets expect the ECB to announce something
concrete after their meeting this Thursday, but given that Draghi ambushed its
Governing Council, and the northern country members remain opposed to bond
buying, it’s probable that if any commitments is made this week, it will be
underwhelming. And tellingly, Draghi is looking like a leader whose command of
the situation is faltering.
Heat Rises on Central Banks – WSJ
Fed, ECB Officials Convene This Week as Markets
Look for New Growth Measures
Mario Draghi Shows the Power of Expectations – Macro
and Other Market Musings
We are on the cusp of another global economic
crisis and Mario Draghi is the one individual who could prevent it. All he needs to do is don his Jedi or Chuck
Norris outfit. Putting those outfits on
would be a lot easier if the ECB adopted a nominal GDP level target.
The Reality Of The Rest Of Draghi's
'Believe-Me' Speech
– ZH
UBS: Put another way, it seems to us
that he was simply stating that elevated sovereign risk premia impair the
transmission of monetary policy as they raise the cost of bank borrowing… More
broadly, it seems evident that the ECB does not have a mandate to create the
informal fiscal transfer union that a cap on peripheral yields would ultimately
imply.
Can Super Mario save the euro? – Hugo
Dixon / Reuters
Super Mario is now warming to the idea of
lending to the ESM, according to Bloomberg, even though that’s not part of his
immediate plan. If Draghi does this, he’ll have to find a way to eat his words
without losing credibility. If not, he will have to rely on second-best options
with all their drawbacks. Mind you, it’s the job of super heroes to get out of
tight spots.
Mirabile Dictu! ECB Chief Draghi Being
Investigated for Membership in the Group of Thirty – naked
capitalism
And the charge certainly looks valid. Draghi
should not be involved with the G30 while he is active at the ECB. And if the
EU Obudsman does find Draghi’s membership to be a conflict of interest, that
has to be just as true for the other EU central bankers that are current
participants.
ECB chief under scrutiny for alleged conflict
of interests – euobserver
The EU ombudsman has launched an investigation
into alleged conflict of interest by European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario
Draghi due to his membership in a club of top bankers, the Group of Thirty
(G30).
OTHER
Cult Figures – Bill Gross /
PIMCO
The long-term history of inflation adjusted
returns from stocks shows a persistent but recently fading 6.6% real return
since 1912. The legitimate question that market analysts, government
forecasters and pension consultants should answer is how that return can be
duplicated in the future. Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue
to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies
over the next few years and even decades.