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Tuesday, July 3

3rd Jul - US Open: Quiet

It will be a very light-volume, meaningless day today, ahead of the US independence day tomorrow. Only ECB's meeting and the expected rate cut and possible but unexpected other measures will be of interest this week.

News & Recap – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
EM New York headlines – FT
Overnight summary – Bank of America / ZH
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Short Interest on the Rise – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
Currencies Continue To Consolidate – Marc to Market
The T Report: – TF Market Advisors

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha
 
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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EURO CRISIS
Betting odds on euro breakup and sovereign defaultsIntrade

Italian lessons for the eurozoneThe World / FT
If
Italy cannot prevent regional differences from getting bigger and bigger, how on earth will a central fiscal authority and economic policy makers do so for the euro area?

Learning by imagining (nightmare Eurexit scenarios)alphaville / FT

Paths to eurobondsbruegel

Europe’s Banking Union: Possible Next Steps on a Bumpy Pathbruegel

EU Summit Winner Was MerkelMish’s

What the EU agreed last week, what it did not and what happens nexteuobserver

OTHER
Manufacturing Turns SouthTim Duy’s Fed Watch
(Yesterday’s) ISM manufacturing report revealed clear signals of global weakness.  Does it point to an impending US recession?  Not necessarily.  Does it point to additional Fed easing?  Also not necessarily.  In short, I don't think this data is yet sending a particularly clear signal about the US economy. 

Emerging Markets Quantitative ReviewLong Room / FT (pdf)
Morgan Stanley’s 106-page giant (free registration required).

Safe AssetsLong Room / FT (pdf)
Goldman Sachs research note (free registration required).

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