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Monday, July 23

23rd Jul - US Close: Bans, Highs, Lows, Hikes


Spain has a 12.9bn issue coming due on 7/30. At this rate, it will be difficult for Spain to roll it over. If so, the EFSF will have to intervene, or the ECB may have to activate the SMP again… – Global Macro Trading


Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Trading & Markets (trading, economics, regulation...)
Weekender: Euro Crisis (that never ends, until it’s over)
Weekender: Weekly Support (weekly reviews and previews, updated!)
Weekender: Best of The Week (from past week’s posts)

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News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View from My Screens
Tyler’s European SummaryZH
  European Bloodbath Continues As Spanish 2Y Is Crushed To Record High Spreads
Tyler’s US SummaryZH
  Same Old Same Old As VIX Dips, EUR Rips, And Equities BTFDs
 
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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EURO CRISIS (ONLY THAT TODAY)
All The World's A StageMark Grant / ZH
The night has been long and the hour is late but one by one the masks are being removed and the characters are seen for what they are; a less than pretty sight.

The euro is no longer a "risk-on" assetSober Look
The euro has completely decoupled from other financial instruments that would be classified as "risk-on" assets.

UBS: Greece, Germany and the problem of politiciansZH
Politicians are ignoring the costs of departure…the insistence on moral hazard over renegotiation ignores the immense hazard of exit…hard for markets to distinguish between political posturing by less influential politicians, and substantive points of negotiation by politicians that carry more weight.

Is Spain's 15%+ 'Legal-Arbitrage' 6 Month Return Signaling An Imminent Bailout?ZH
the differential between UK- and non-UK-law bonds has been crushed and is absolutely on a path to repeat the Greek PSI experience.

Moody's Changes Aaa-Rated Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg Outlook To NegativeZH
Very good comments from Moody’s – read it. If short on time,  alphaville / FT has a shorter summary.

LCH Adds Margin Call To Injury, Hikes Spanish, Italian Bond MarginsZH

A Europe review, with pictures of the processFabius Maximus
Reading the news today brings to mind the great question — why does each step in the disintegration of Europe surprise so many people? For those that would like to see the story, without the obscuring fog, here is a recap of the posts about Europe from the FM website. With some descriptive graphics.

A brief update on the euro crisisASA
 
Germany sounds ready to kick Greece out of the euroWonkblog / WP
 
Wonkbook: The pain in Spain falls harder on the bond yieldsWonkblog / WP

Strategic Briefing: The Spanish Risk FactorThe Capital Spectator

If Spain fails, yet another new plan for the euro zone will be needed, as Spain’s woes means three sets of existing ideas have been exhausted.

5-year Swiss rate goes negativeSober Look

Nouriel Roubini’s Euro-Zone ‘Endgame’ ScenarioMarketBeat / WSJ

Europe’s House on FireMarketBeat / WSJ
The market has regained its composure the way it always does. You don’t have to say it, we all know what it is. The market expects a savior. The Fed, or the ECB, or the conclusion of yet another summit.

Short-Selling Bans ‘Reeks of Desperation’MarketBeat / WSJ
Spain and Italy take gold for flailing, banning short-sellingalphaville / FT

The summer of tail risk: How we're playing FX, bonds, commoditiesSaxo Bank
European crisis is not over until the heavy-weights sit down and agree on the future.